A break-out?

[adamstgBit]

That looks like a break-out from the leading diagonal wedge that seemed to be forming from the $340 bottom.

Strong volume, although it still needs to confirm itself.

I have bought in at $600, but am ready to bail back out should the break out fail and simply result in the final high of the leg up from $460 as posters such as ibankbitcoins suggests.

Important to note before the denialists start trying to deny it, is that Huobi was once again, ahead of Bitstamp on this break out (2 mins ahead). We are still being lead from China.

Have a look at finex charts.

Yeah....that is why I hate Bitfinex.

Fake Walls R Us.

Some poor cunt obviously made a panic 'market order' buy on Bitfines, only to discover that the thousands of BTC making up the Ask wall above him were but a 'mirage'.

I fucking hate Bitfinex. Crooks operating a fractional reserve Bitcoin exchange, with fake volume and insider trading for sure!

And still, Bitfinex was also 2 minutes behind Huobi.

Bitfinex shows ~14K BTC volume on this latest move, if the wall were fake why did the move up cause more volume then the order book was showing at the time.

[MatTheCat]

Bitfinex shows ~14K BTC volume on this latest move, if the wall were fake why did the move up cause more volume then the order book was showing at the time.

2000 BTC took Bitfinex up to $599. Just further couple of hundred BTC took it up to $630, and then a few hundred more caused it to correct to $583. All within one minute. Who in their right mind (human mind or bot coding) is going to be so chomping at the bit to get in on Bitcoins that they are happy to pay up $30 above the USD market standard rate (Bitstamp price)?

Why do these things never happen on Bitstamp?

Why is it only ever on shady exchanges like BTC-e and Bitfinex that we get these wild anomalous trading spikes?

Did you know that Bitfinex routes trades through Bitstamp to increase liquidity? Seems to have circumvented Bitstamp on this occasion hasn't it not?

Have you actually traded on Bitfinex? Have you first hand experience of all it's little 'quirks'? Especially with regards to farming Stop Loss orders!

These exchanges will one day prove to be a blight on the Bitcoin market just like Gox did.

[HeliKopterBen]

Disagreed on the "led by China" statement. I made my case against that often enough now, so I'm not repeating it here. China is a large factor still though, so if it's just hyperbolic phrasing to say that, I'm okay with it.

The volume surge on Huobi was 2 minutes ahead of Stamp. This isn't up for debate, it is there in black and white (or red and green).

Sorry, but this happens almost 9 times out of 10 and it cannot be ignored.

Arb bots are most likely keeping the exchange rates in line.

[oda.krell]

Disagreed on the "led by China" statement. I made my case against that often enough now, so I'm not repeating it here. China is a large factor still though, so if it's just hyperbolic phrasing to say that, I'm okay with it.

The volume surge on Huobi was 2 minutes ahead of Stamp. This isn't up for debate, it is there in black and white (or red and green).

Sorry, but this happens almost 9 times out of 10 and it cannot be ignored.

You're right for once: this isn't even up for debate.



The spikes, in chronological order:

14:17 Bitfinex 111 xbt (local spike, but not a huge order exactly. I'd call it "the rally starter, part 1")

14:18 Bitstamp 693 xbt  ("the rally starter, part 2")

14:18 Huobi 42 xbt (how things got started in Matland)


EDIT: and if this is about the first impulse of the breakout, then:

11:30 Huobi 286 xbt
11:31 Huobi 594 xbt
11:32 Bitstamp 943 xbt / Huobi 842 xbt


Summary:

Huobi indeed began the first impulse of this local rally 2 minutes earlier than stamp, but within 2 minutes higher volume order(s) came in on Bitstamp.

That's not what it looks like if "one exchange leads the other". That's "exchanges getting each other in a buying frenzy".

[cypherdoc]

I was asleep when Bitcoin broke through $540 which would have been my buy-in confirmation target had it not been 4am where I am, when the break out happened. I was in and out near top (at small profit) just before the correction to $550. I never held my $571 position because I had a dream of Bitcoin correcting to $500.

ah, the perils of sleep.

seriously, as a day trader, how do you effectively deal with trading a highly volatile market when a quarter to a third of your life involves you being unconscious and away from your screen unable to react?  sure, you could try to automate your trades if a sudden move happens but that is very dangerous to your account especially with whipsaws.  statistically, much of this volatility is going to originate from outside the US when you're asleep.

better to HODL.

[djangocoin]

Why in on an uptrend?

I mean if you think it's going to succeed long term

[YogoH]

Damn, matt just got wrecked

[MatTheCat]

Hier ist Der wirkliche Anfang des Ausbruchs:

Huobi:




Bitstamp:





EDIT: For some fucking reason that screenshot makes it look as though the first big green bar was at 9:31, on Bitstamp, and I am trying to steal a minute from the action on Bitstamp. The first big green bar happened on Bitstamp at 9.32 am UTC. Go and check it out for yourself.

[adamstgBit]

Hier ist Der wirkliche Anfang des Ausbruchs:

Huobi:




Bitstamp:

why did you place the stamps time marker after the first volume spike?

[MatTheCat]

why did you place the stamps time marker after the first volume spike?

I didn't. don't why that happened. Instead of debating me, just go check it out for yourself.

Edit: FIXED.

[adamstgBit]

pretty sure all the market look to each other for confirmation of moves anyway

leader with 30sec head start will not keep going up if no one follows

so wtv.

[MatTheCat]

pretty sure all the market look to each other for confirmation of moves anyway

leader with 30sec head start will not keep going up if no one follows

so wtv.

And it just so happens that Huobi is always the leader whenever anything significant happens in Bitcoin these days. Yeah....the trading bots follow on all exchanges, cos they are all hooked up to each other, but Huobi leads. Always.

[oda.krell]

[pretty graph]

Thanks for the illustration of what I wrote above.

No need to discuss this further. I'm not the one playing catch and run with a price that doesn't do what I expect it to do based on faulty premises.

[Torque]

Disagreed on the "led by China" statement. I made my case against that often enough now, so I'm not repeating it here. China is a large factor still though, so if it's just hyperbolic phrasing to say that, I'm okay with it.

The volume surge on Huobi was 2 minutes ahead of Stamp. This isn't up for debate, it is there in black and white (or red and green).

Sorry, but this happens almost 9 times out of 10 and it cannot be ignored.

You're right for once: this isn't even up for debate.



The spikes, in chronological order:

14:17 Bitfinex 111 xbt (local spike, but not a huge order exactly. I'd call it "the rally starter, part 1")

14:18 Bitstamp 693 xbt  ("the rally starter, part 2")

14:18 Huobi 42 xbt (how things got started in Matland)


EDIT: and if this is about the first impulse of the breakout, then:

11:30 Huobi 286 xbt
11:31 Huobi 594 xbt
11:32 Bitstamp 943 xbt / Huobi 842 xbt


Summary:

Huobi indeed began the first impulse of this local rally 2 minutes earlier than stamp, but within 2 minutes higher volume order(s) came in on Bitstamp.

That's not what it looks like if "one exchange leads the other". That's "exchanges getting each other in a buying frenzy".

Not to mention, MatTheCat never seems to ponder the obvious truth that a few whale traders have multiple accounts on different international exchanges (e.g., Whale #1 has a trading account on both Bitstamp and Huobi, thus being able to play sides of the rally on multiple exchanges simultaneously).  So saying that "China is leading this rally, not the other nations" is misleading and possibly just plan wrong.

[TERA]

ching chung ku fung piff paff wing wang i suppose soon we will all be hitting ourselves after huobi shuts down for real and btc is back down, because we neglected these obvious signs including this pathetic rally volume on stamp which is 1/4 of the volume as the volume that the various crashes earlier in the year had. just another day getting goxxed by china and we fell for it yet again. ill order the general tzo's chicken with two spring rolls and a side of crispy duck.

[MatTheCat]

ching chung ku fung piff paff wing wang i suppose soon we will all be hitting ourselves after huobi shuts down for real and btc is back down, because we neglected these obvious signs including this pathetic rally volume on stamp which is 1/4 of the volume as the volume that the various crashes earlier in the year had. just another day getting goxxed by china and we fell for it yet again. ill order the general tzo's chicken with two spring rolls and a side of crispy duck.

No.

Because the fact that China always leads the buying pressure on this run up is only the reality in MatTheCat land. All the wise users on Bitcointalk.org say so (despite the evidence being there for all to see each and every fucking time).

[toknormal]

I think the 1-week MACD histogram from Bitcoinwisdom tells all anyone needs to know about whats happening with this breakout.

It's permanent, and has been building since early April when the rate of selling started to slow. The correction from December's all time high is now fully in and IMO this is going well northward over the summer.

We haven't had such a bullish set of circumstances since last October.

[MatTheCat]

sure, you could try to automate your trades if a sudden move happens but that is very dangerous to your account especially with whipsaws.  statistically, much of this volatility is going to originate from outside the US when you're asleep.

better to HODL.

I I was a HODLER, I would be bagholding some 27BTC bought at $1100 as a worst case scenario, although I start 'day trading' Bitcoins from $700 in November. So best case scenario would be me being a bag holder from $700 range.

I think the 1-week MACD histogram from Bitcoinwisdom tells all anyone needs to know about whats happening with this breakout.

It's permanent, and has been building since early April when the rate of selling started to slow. The correction from December's all time high is now fully in and IMO this is going well northward over the summer.

We haven't had such a bullish set of circumstances since last October.

Never rely on one indicator alone. Especially not the MACD.

[bitcoinsrus]

I expected 600 yesterday because thursdays usually are interesting (possible second market buying etc).

[oda.krell]

Not to mention, MatTheCat never seems to ponder the obvious truth that a few whale traders have multiple accounts on different international exchanges (e.g., Whale #1 has a trading account on both Bitstamp and Huobi, thus being able to play sides of the rally on multiple exchanges simultaneously).  So saying that "China is leading this rally, not the other nations" is misleading and possibly just plan wrong.

No! Go away with your "logic" and "common sense". This is all led by Chairman Mao's Market Manipulation Brigade (CM³B). You'll see in time!

(it's actually kind of funny, because Mat could make a valid point about how Chinese exchanges still do have the capacity to throw us back a long way, if and when their actual volume declines to a trickle of what it is now. there is after all a real contribution to current buying pressure by China, and if that were to stop, I'm sure price would be affected. But, no, that's way too complicated an explanation for old Mat of course: instead "China leads each and every move" it is.)