The Weekend Dip Myth

[kentrolla]

yea, even though the wall never switched sides, I still believe we are headed up. I'm guessing that ask wall belongs to pirateat40. He kinda changes the game when it comes to ask walls. His only agenda is to keep the price low. He would be losing money if he takes the profit from doing a switch.

[kentrolla]

looks like someone is trying to hold the price down until the bank opens. I doubt he will be able to do it

[John (John K.)]

There goes 1.7k of the wall. It's down to 3k from the ~8k I saw 4 hours ago.  Better grab your coins while they're cheap.

[smoothie]

There goes 1.7k of the wall. It's down to 3k from the ~8k I saw 4 hours ago.  Better grab your coins while they're cheap.

+1

we may rise and come back near here but I dont believe we will stay in this range for months. Time to get on or get left in the dust buying in at much higher prices.

[adamstgBit]

12$
 here we fucking go man!

[John (John K.)]

There goes 1.7k of the wall. It's down to 3k from the ~8k I saw 4 hours ago.  Better grab your coins while they're cheap.

+1

we may rise and come back near here but I dont believe we will stay in this range for months. Time to get on or get left in the dust buying in at much higher prices.

Down to 1.8k...

[Bjork]

Well?  Will we see one this weekend?

[thezerg]

I guess no... we pre-dipped this time 

[waspoza]

I see weekend dip. Theory is holding. 

[thezerg]

Yeah it was huge!! Why we started at 8.50, and now we are at 8.50.  And between those two we even dipped to 9!

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg2ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

[Stephen Gornick]

Yeah it was huge!! Why we started at 8.50, and now we are at 8.50.  

The "official" weekend dip theory (at least the one I ascribe to) only is used during a selloff trend.  i.e., because currently the high for the previous seven days (as-of Wednesday evening west / Thursday morning east)  exceeded the highs in the seven days prior, then there was no prediction of a dip or no dip.

That being said, there is a clear pattern lately that buying on a Saturday or Sunday, particularly after a little mini selloff like where we are at right now, is something that pays off a day o two later.  As new money (wire transfers, Dwollas, cash deposits during banking hours, etc.) arrives, the impatient buyers buy the coins at whatever the price happens to be it seems.

I've no idea if this pattern will happen yet again, and no idea what the price will be on Monday or Tuesday, but seeing all the ways people are using bitcoin today and seeing the variety of stuff being built for Bitcoin, tells me that a month or three from now there are going to be a whole lot more people finding bitcoins useful to them.  So a weekend dip or not is really not something relevant looking even just weeks down the road.

I do recommend, however, that Da Dip should be watched at least once every weekend!
 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZPQdZLyHYE#t=221s

[dree12]

The weekend dip, although its premise is disputable, is supported by data. Prices have dropped more on weekends than on weekdays. Sunday is the most severe "day of the dip", Monday, Tuesday, and Saturday are the only other days that demonstrate a drop.

[aq]

The weekend dip, although its premise is disputable, is supported by data. Prices have dropped more on weekends than on weekdays. Sunday is the most severe "day of the dip", Monday, Tuesday, and Saturday are the only other days that demonstrate a drop.

Which time zone did you use?
Can you please label the y axis?

[Spekulatius]

Only coincidence that Due Day for pirate's BS&T is 12:00 pm CST (UTC-6 hours)?

[dree12]

The weekend dip, although its premise is disputable, is supported by data. Prices have dropped more on weekends than on weekdays. Sunday is the most severe "day of the dip", Monday, Tuesday, and Saturday are the only other days that demonstrate a drop.

Which time zone did you use?
Can you please label the y axis?

The time zone is UTC. The y-axis has units of days, as in [days risen - days dropped]. The orange line represents 0. The grey lines are, in order from top to bottom:

• 12
• 8
• 3
• -2
• -7
• -12

[aq]

The weekend dip, although its premise is disputable, is supported by data. Prices have dropped more on weekends than on weekdays. Sunday is the most severe "day of the dip", Monday, Tuesday, and Saturday are the only other days that demonstrate a drop.

Which time zone did you use?
Can you please label the y axis?

The time zone is UTC. The y-axis has units of days, as in [days risen - days dropped]. The orange line represents 0. The grey lines are, in order from top to bottom:

• 12
• 8
• 3
• -2
• -7
• -12

Thanks. It seems to be almost a continual curve. Did you try to make finer grained diagram? Maybe hour of the week?

[dree12]

6-hourly, from Mon-Sun:

[aq]

6-hourly, from Mon-Sun:

Interesting, apart from the weekend overall down, I would say the Wednesday first 12h up is the most significant one (16weeks and 18weeks up).  How much weeks of data do you actually use for those charts?

[molecular]

no weekend dip this weekend

Should I buy now?  I had put 90% in USD in anticipation of a dip...

Didn't you get the memo? Weekend dip moved to friday in anticipation.

Reminds me of the unanticipatable hanging paradox: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unexpected_hanging_paradox

[dree12]

6-hourly, from Mon-Sun:

Interesting, apart from the weekend overall down, I would say the Wednesday first 12h up is the most significant one (16weeks and 18weeks up).  How much weeks of data do you actually use for those charts?

They are computed from all of Mt. Gox USD history. "Boring" data points, that fit into almost no movement (i.e. between 33rd and 67th percentiles), are excluded from calculation.