Weekly MACD to turn green on next candle

[seleme]

800 will be big fight. Many noobs bought there and would like to recover. Not sure if they would but my only 2 sales of the exchanges were at 800.

[zimmah]

The weekly MACD seems to be the most reliable MACD for bitcoin, the others are pretty much all over the place.

[Raystonn]

I estimate this will happen around June 10th.  The weekly MACD hasn't been green since January.

Actually, if this bullishness continues into tomorrow, we can have a closed green candle by the end of that day.  Tomorrow is the last day of the week for the bitcoinwisdom weekly chart, and it's very, very close to turning green now.

[Raystonn]

I estimate this will happen around June 10th.  The weekly MACD hasn't been green since January.

Sorry, I was off by 1 day.  Missed the 10th by that much...

We actually have a green closed candle on bitfinex's MACD.  Bitstamp's just turned green with the start of the new week.

[JulieFig]

I estimate this will happen around June 10th.  The weekly MACD hasn't been green since January.

Sorry, I was off by 1 day.  Missed the 10th by that much...

We actually have a green closed candle on bitfinex's MACD.  Bitstamp's just turned green with the start of the new week.

Being off by 1 day in BitcoinLand is still a bullseye - good on you!

[JulieFig]

Sorry, I was off by 1 day.  Missed the 10th by that much...

We actually have a green closed candle on bitfinex's MACD.  Bitstamp's just turned green with the start of the new week.

I also wouldn't mind picking your brain with regards to the next couple of weeks... Do you think we will see a minor cross back over before resuming the upwards trend, a la September last year?

[Raystonn]

Sorry, I was off by 1 day.  Missed the 10th by that much...

We actually have a green closed candle on bitfinex's MACD.  Bitstamp's just turned green with the start of the new week.

I also wouldn't mind picking your brain with regards to the next couple of weeks... Do you think we will see a minor cross back over before resuming the upwards trend, a la September last year?

I think it's entirely possible we could flash crash down as low as 420 within the next 2-3 weeks, ending the week of the crash above 540.  It's also possible we could stay flat for 2-3 weeks.  Either way, when we break above 685, we're on our way to a new ATH.  I expect to revisit the last ATH in about 7 weeks, and be at our new ATH about 4 weeks after that.

[JulieFig]

Sorry, I was off by 1 day.  Missed the 10th by that much...

We actually have a green closed candle on bitfinex's MACD.  Bitstamp's just turned green with the start of the new week.

I also wouldn't mind picking your brain with regards to the next couple of weeks... Do you think we will see a minor cross back over before resuming the upwards trend, a la September last year?

I think it's entirely possible we could flash crash down as low as 420 within the next 2-3 weeks, ending the week of the crash above 540.  It's also possible we could stay flat for 2-3 weeks.  Either way, when we break above 685, we're on our way to a new ATH.  I expect to revisit the last ATH in about 7 weeks, and be at our new ATH about 4 weeks after that.

We seem to be pretty closely following the trend of the run-ups to the previous two peaks. If we do continue like this, I think we may bypass the flash crash you mentioned, and just stay flat for another 2 weeks.

[Raystonn]

Sorry, I was off by 1 day.  Missed the 10th by that much...

We actually have a green closed candle on bitfinex's MACD.  Bitstamp's just turned green with the start of the new week.

I also wouldn't mind picking your brain with regards to the next couple of weeks... Do you think we will see a minor cross back over before resuming the upwards trend, a la September last year?

I think it's entirely possible we could flash crash down as low as 420 within the next 2-3 weeks, ending the week of the crash above 540.  It's also possible we could stay flat for 2-3 weeks.  Either way, when we break above 685, we're on our way to a new ATH.  I expect to revisit the last ATH in about 7 weeks, and be at our new ATH about 4 weeks after that.

We seem to be pretty closely following the trend of the run-ups to the previous two peaks. If we do continue like this, I think we may bypass the flash crash you mentioned, and just stay flat for another 2 weeks.

Look at the week of 9/25/2013.  We could be in for a flash crash like that before the big run-up.

[oda.krell]

what a strange discussion...

As already mentioned, declaring the MACD green before a weekly candle close carries the obvious risk that upon candle close it *won't* in fact turn green.

And apart from that, how about the following 3 (different) instances of a bullish MACD c.o. that saw a price decline afterwards anyway....

case #1

last year, september/october. bullish c.o., sharp crash... yeah yeah, "Silk road". Still, the market was ready for a huge drop, so don't declare shit outliers just because they don't fit your theory:





case #2

late 2012. 1st *closed* green MACD candle and: in between price decline





case #3

my favorite. 2011/2012 bear market. weekly macd turns green, but by the time that happens, because it's such a lagging indicator, price was already near a local peak.

afterwards? another 5 months of mild decline/stagnation, before the next rally.





What conclusions to draw?

Well, I'm not saying to ignore weekly MACD. Just don't turn it into something that it isn't: a magic signal that infallibly preempts huge price increases.

If anything, in the recent past it preempted minor drops and periods of stagnation. Once that is accepted, I will add that it also then led to further rallies in the mid term, which is all you holders want anyway, so why discuss trading signals in the first place

[MatTheCat]

I think it's entirely possible we could flash crash down as low as 420 within the next 2-3 weeks, ending the week of the crash above 540.  It's also possible we could stay flat for 2-3 weeks.  Either way, when we break above 685, we're on our way to a new ATH.  I expect to revisit the last ATH in about 7 weeks, and be at our new ATH about 4 weeks after that.

You think that the market could handle going down to $420 and then charge right back up to a new ATH? If we go down to $420, then we will be looking for a new ATL for 2014.

[okthen]

I think it's entirely possible we could flash crash down as low as 420 within the next 2-3 weeks, ending the week of the crash above 540.  It's also possible we could stay flat for 2-3 weeks.  Either way, when we break above 685, we're on our way to a new ATH.  I expect to revisit the last ATH in about 7 weeks, and be at our new ATH about 4 weeks after that.

You think that the market could handle going down to $420 and then charge right back up to a new ATH? If we go down to $420, then we will be looking for a new ATL for 2014.

In any case, something would have to actually happen for the flash crash to occur...
And big news as Silk Road last year are not that likely to come. It would be a huge coincidence!

[Raystonn]

I think it's entirely possible we could flash crash down as low as 420 within the next 2-3 weeks, ending the week of the crash above 540.  It's also possible we could stay flat for 2-3 weeks.  Either way, when we break above 685, we're on our way to a new ATH.  I expect to revisit the last ATH in about 7 weeks, and be at our new ATH about 4 weeks after that.

You think that the market could handle going down to $420 and then charge right back up to a new ATH? If we go down to $420, then we will be looking for a new ATL for 2014.

A price change of similar magnitude happened the week of 9/25/2013, after the weekly MACD turned green.  It was the ultimate bear trap before the big rise.  It sounds like such price action would likely pull you into the bear trap.

[Raystonn]

I think it's entirely possible we could flash crash down as low as 420 within the next 2-3 weeks, ending the week of the crash above 540.  It's also possible we could stay flat for 2-3 weeks.  Either way, when we break above 685, we're on our way to a new ATH.  I expect to revisit the last ATH in about 7 weeks, and be at our new ATH about 4 weeks after that.

You think that the market could handle going down to $420 and then charge right back up to a new ATH? If we go down to $420, then we will be looking for a new ATL for 2014.

A price change of similar magnitude happened the week of 9/25/2013, after the weekly MACD turned green.  It was the ultimate bear trap before the big rise.  It sounds like such price action would likely pull you into the bear trap.

Well, that was quick.  We locked in green on bitfinex, so it will always be there.  Bitstamp's is now gone.  Here is the crash before we go vertical.  I expect us to stay low at least until June 27th.

For now, as always.... we hold.

[JulieFig]

Please see my last post just above yours.

Apologies... should have been more thorough.

[Raystonn]

I think it's entirely possible we could flash crash down as low as 420 within the next 2-3 weeks, ending the week of the crash above 540.  It's also possible we could stay flat for 2-3 weeks.  Either way, when we break above 685, we're on our way to a new ATH.  I expect to revisit the last ATH in about 7 weeks, and be at our new ATH about 4 weeks after that.

You think that the market could handle going down to $420 and then charge right back up to a new ATH? If we go down to $420, then we will be looking for a new ATL for 2014.

A price change of similar magnitude happened the week of 9/25/2013, after the weekly MACD turned green.  It was the ultimate bear trap before the big rise.  It sounds like such price action would likely pull you into the bear trap.

I was completely wrong on the timeframe.  We've been moving in slow motion up to this point.  Change "weeks" to "months" and it was about right up to this point.  I don't think it will be long before the next ATH.

[BitcoinMillionaires]

Thanks for this analysis. I find it very interesting.

Could you post another (updated) graph? I'd love to try to understand these indicators you are looking at (I don't yet know what MACD refers to, but want to research it more).

Any further explanation would be much appreciated!

[dropt]

Thanks for this analysis. I find it very interesting.

Could you post another (updated) graph? I'd love to try to understand these indicators you are looking at (I don't yet know what MACD refers to, but want to research it more).

Any further explanation would be much appreciated!

MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/macd.asp

[FUR11]

What about the current MACD? Can we see some fancy graphs? I think we're again at a very important point. These days will decide whether it's a dead-cat-bounce or it really is a true recovery! And maybe even the begin of a new bubble???

[RyNinDaCleM]

What about the current MACD? Can we see some fancy graphs? I think we're again at a very important point. These days will decide whether it's a dead-cat-bounce or it really is a true recovery! And maybe even the begin of a new bubble???

Weekly MACD? Not looking good at all. It's the second chart region



...and at what point do you feel it is confirmed either way about the dead cat bounce?