July bubble theories.

[TERA]

I'm wondering why most people are calling for a bubble in July? Historically, bitcoin consolidations are symmetrical, and the recovery takes just as long as the preceding decline. This pattern occurs despite the never-ending incredible exponential increase of fundamentals each time. In this case the preceding decline lasted 5 months (december-april), so the average (probability) length of the recovery should be 5 months (may - september) and a breakout should occur in september or october. So I am wondering why people are calling for a breakout in the start of July? That is only a 2 month recovery, and would look extremely assymetrical on the chart with one side being 250% of the length of the other side.

[blatchcorn]

It may look asymmetrical on a standard chart, but on a log chart July is bang on time for the 8 month rally cycle.

[TERA]

It may look asymmetrical on a standard chart, but on a log chart July is bang on time for the 8 month rally cycle.

It is a false basis to chart assuming there is a fixed length of time of 8 months inbetween rallies. Each rally has had a different length of time depending on the severity of the previous decline, some of the rallies didn't even set ATH, and there was time when nearly 2 years went between ATHs.

[chessnut]

look on the 3day chart, and the rally is looking just like January 3013 and october 2013. it would be historically very unusual for it to take a u turn from this point.

[TERA]

look on the 3day chart, and the rally is looking just like January 3013 and october 2013. it would be historically very unusual for it to take a u turn from this point.

I looked at the 3 day chart and what I saw is 7 green candles in a row, kind of like August which also had 7 candles in a row except one was a red hammer candle ,and at the 7th candle the major consolidation began.

It's not a U-turn, just a flat period.

[JulieFig]

look on the 3day chart, and the rally is looking just like January 3013 and october 2013. it would be historically very unusual for it to take a u turn from this point.

I looked at the 3 day chart and what I saw is 7 green candles in a row, kind of like August which also had 7 candles in a row except one was a red hammer candle ,and at the 7th candle the major consolidation began.

It's not a U-turn, just a flat period.

The good news is that we all only have to wait a month to see who is correct - the bulls with their July bubble, or TERA and her more bearish view.

[smoothie]

I think the bubble will end the first week in August at the very least in terms of time. It could go on longer.

[chessnut]

look on the 3day chart, and the rally is looking just like January 3013 and october 2013. it would be historically very unusual for it to take a u turn from this point.

I looked at the 3 day chart and what I saw is 7 green candles in a row, kind of like August which also had 7 candles in a row except one was a red hammer candle ,and at the 7th candle the major consolidation began.

It's not a U-turn, just a flat period.

I dont see that. we have never had this kind of price action that does not lead to a new ATH. not this steep, not this smooth. we are trending up.

[TERA]

I think we are ignoring the obvious differences between 2013 and 2014

[oda.krell]

I don't believe we will see a bubble already in July, at least not in the sense that the uberbulls hope for.

A local maximum/intermediate "mini bubble", on the other hand would fit in very well... I see a good chance for somewhere between 600 and 1000 in July, and then a decline before getting into the next real bubble cycle.

[TERA]

There is a whole spectrum of possbilities now given that we have two major resistance levels instead of just one. I have plotted only some of them out.  The red case is something like what I was expecting a month ago. The blue case is what I am thinking of now, and the green case is what bulls believe is going to happen with a rally in July.

[segeln]

I don't believe we will see a bubble already in July, at least not in the sense that the uberbulls hope for.

A local maximum/intermediate "mini bubble", on the other hand would fit in very well... I see a good chance for somewhere between 600 and 1000 in July, and then a decline before getting into the next real bubble cycle.

sorry,but anyone who ist talking about a "bubble" doesn`t what a "Bubble" is.
Was Internet.com a "bubble" ?of course not ,only some Internet companies went bankrupt, only for those it was a "bubble"
I think we schould use Terms correct

[TERA]

I don't believe we will see a bubble already in July, at least not in the sense that the uberbulls hope for.

A local maximum/intermediate "mini bubble", on the other hand would fit in very well... I see a good chance for somewhere between 600 and 1000 in July, and then a decline before getting into the next real bubble cycle.

sorry,but anyone who ist talking about a "bubble" doesn`t what a "Bubble" is.
Was Internet.com a "bubble" ?of course not ,only some Internet companies went bankrupt, only for those it was a "bubble"
I think we schould use Terms correct

I'm only using the term because it is a norm here for purposes of communication.

[segeln]

I don't believe we will see a bubble already in July, at least not in the sense that the uberbulls hope for.

A local maximum/intermediate "mini bubble", on the other hand would fit in very well... I see a good chance for somewhere between 600 and 1000 in July, and then a decline before getting into the next real bubble cycle.

sorry,but anyone who ist talking about a "bubble" doesn`t what a "Bubble" is.
Was Internet.com a "bubble" ?of course not ,only some Internet companies went bankrupt, only for those it was a "bubble"
I think we schould use Terms correct

I'm only using the term because it is a norm here for purposes of communication.

ok, but I am a term purist

[BldSwtTrs]

The altcoins are in late September 2013, not in August 2013.

[zimmah]

I don't believe we will see a bubble already in July, at least not in the sense that the uberbulls hope for.

A local maximum/intermediate "mini bubble", on the other hand would fit in very well... I see a good chance for somewhere between 600 and 1000 in July, and then a decline before getting into the next real bubble cycle.

If that is true that could mean an even bigger bubble like in 2011

[oda.krell]

I don't believe we will see a bubble already in July, at least not in the sense that the uberbulls hope for.

A local maximum/intermediate "mini bubble", on the other hand would fit in very well... I see a good chance for somewhere between 600 and 1000 in July, and then a decline before getting into the next real bubble cycle.

sorry,but anyone who ist talking about a "bubble" doesn`t what a "Bubble" is.
Was Internet.com a "bubble" ?of course not ,only some Internet companies went bankrupt, only for those it was a "bubble"
I think we schould use Terms correct

"correct" is defined by context. And "bubble" in the context of Bitcoin is differently than in other markets.

So don't get too hung up on words I suggest, it was pretty clear by my usage that I don't mean it to say that it's a bubble that pops and leads to a market that never recovers.

EDIT: just saw your other response...

ok, but I am a term purist

... and I'm with (later) Wittgenstein on this one: the rules of the language game are defined as the actual game is being played. This being "Bitcoin language game", not "Stock market language game".

[Peter R]

I think we are ignoring the obvious differences between 2013 and 2014

Agreed.  

IMO we are rallying now to a new trading range where we will consolidate for several months.  

I don't believe we will see a bubble already in July, at least not in the sense that the uberbulls hope for.

A local maximum/intermediate "mini bubble", on the other hand would fit in very well... I see a good chance for somewhere between 600 and 1000 in July, and then a decline before getting into the next real bubble cycle.

I think a "mini-bubble" this summer is a good possibility too.  This would actually be my preference, for if the stars align it could facilitate an uber growth spurt, down the road.  Perhaps the mini growth spurt will get the media talking once again, and then when the currently-planned infrastructure is in place, the larger growth spurt might begin.  

Presently, it is too difficult to buy and store bitcoins (lack of infrastructure), and this is the reason I can't see a large growth spurt this summer.  But right now hundreds of ATMs are being deployed across the world, the Winklevoss and SecondMarket funds are in the approval processes, and simpler wallet services (e.g., Circle) are under development.  If a larger % of the population is within driving distance of an ATM, if a certain % of stock traders can purchase bitcoin through their brokerages, and if others can instantly purchase bitcoins with their credit cards through Circle, we could see a very large spike in demand if bitcoin starts trending again.  But the infrastructure to allow this won't be in place in July.  Maybe by the winter it will be.

Of course this is just speculation, but I do think that if the stars align just right bitcoin will experience a "step change" in its accessibility that could in turn foster a step change in its user-base and market cap too.