Potential Service - Artificial Intelligence System to Help Investors

[K128kevin2]

TL;DR - at bottom

Hey guys, I'm posting this because I want to try to gauge how much interest there would be in a project like this before I proceed further in developing it.

I have recently been working on software that uses artificial neural networks to predict the ideal buy and sell prices to set for bitcoin in order to maximize profit. When testing it on historic bitcoin price data over the past (about) 3.5 years, simulating buying/selling according to the prices set by the neural network, it earns about 6 times as much money as just buying and holding bitcoins assuming no transaction fees. With transaction fees, depending on the fee, it earns about 2-2.5 times as much money as the buy/hold strategy. Basically, starting with $100 if it buys and holds it earns about $10,000 and if it trades using the neural network it earns a bit over $20,000.

I am considering setting up a website (and possibly an app eventually too) where you can register and pay a monthly fee (like $10 ish maybe) to have access to the buy and sell prices. They would be updated every 4 hours (since that is what has yielded the most profit in testing so far). You would also have the option of linking the system to an account you have (not sure if I'll do btc-e, bitstamp, or both) and having it trade for you. You would, of course, be able to override the buy and sell prices.

I also plan to include data from twitter on the page, calculating a single, simple numeric representation of the "sentiment" of bitcoin at the moment (like maybe a number from 1 to 100). I haven't really begun this yet, but the system will gather data from twitter related to bitcoin and calculate a sentiment based on the number of various words found and the number of followers/tweets/favorites/retweets of the people who tweet these words. This sentiment data would, of course, be helpful in deciding whether or not you would like to override the neural network's buy/sell prices.

Anyway I just wanted to post this and see if this is a service people would be interested in. I'm very open to your thoughts and opinions on this project, as well as any suggestions you guys might have.

TL;DR -
Working on a service which uses artificial intelligence techniques to set ideal buy/sell prices - testing so far yields double the profit of buying and holding over the past ~3.5 years. Thinking of making a paid service which would give you access to this data as well as the ability to have it automatically trade bitcoin for you. May also include market "sentiment" data from twitter.

[Coinsera]

What you are doing is very nice and I think 3.5 years are much higher specially in the case where in past two years, bitcoin changed a lot and have very high value, so you should change this method atleast.

Thanks

[K128kevin2]

What you are doing is very nice and I think 3.5 years are much higher specially in the case where in past two years, bitcoin changed a lot and have very high value, so you should change this method atleast.

Thanks

The value has changed greatly, but the way that the price behaves in terms of percent changes has actually been pretty consistent. I ran into problems related to this when I first started working on neural networks to predict bitcoin prices, and I was able to solve them by looking at percent changes in price instead of actual prices.

[daybyter]

Do you have already a framework to fetch data from exchanges?

[queptiv]

is this going to be a market maker? or just print prices but not actually make stub orders

[K128kevin2]

Do you have already a framework to fetch data from exchanges?

I already have software running that checks every second for transactions and adds them to a file I have which contains every bitcoin transaction on Bitstamp since its creation. I use this to keep my website up to date (www.btcpredictions.com) which is very much related to this idea that I'm presenting in this thread.

is this going to be a market maker? or just print prices but not actually make stub orders

Well I'm working on a version right now which will just print out prices but eventually I hope to make it so that it will perform transactions for you. I would like to make it so that it just sets an automatic buy and sell point for you and when the price reaches one of those points, it executes the appropriate transaction. Also, of course, you would be able to override the neural network's buy and sell values if you wanted to set them differently. Oh and in case it wasn't clear, this would all be online (as opposed to downloading some client software), so you would have to deposit your funds into the system for it to trade for you.

[K128kevin2]

Oh and also for those who are interested, I'm currently working on the very first version of this which will be free. I'll add a page to www.btcpredictions.com which will display the buy and sell prices. I plan to make it so that you have to sign up to see this data, but signing up will be free for now.

[daybyter]

Do you have already a framework to fetch data from exchanges?

I already have software running that checks every second for transactions and adds them to a file I have which contains every bitcoin transaction on Bitstamp since its creation. I use this to keep my website up to date (www.btcpredictions.com) which is very much related to this idea that I'm presenting in this thread.

Ok, if you need a framework, that supports more exchanges or want to turn your concept into a desktop or android app, let me know.

[K128kevin2]

Ok, if you need a framework, that supports more exchanges or want to turn your concept into a desktop or android app, let me know.

I will probably want to make both an android and iOS app eventually, but probably not for a little while. I'll let you know if I do!

[K128kevin2]

Beta version is up!

http://www.btcpredictions.com/BuySellIndicator.php

Still might have some bugs but check it out! You can sign up for free.