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Author Topic: Cause of the BTCUSD Crash on February 13th, 2012  (Read 3094 times)
is4tomj
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February 15, 2012, 04:53:11 PM
 #1

Hi, below is a link to a blog post on what caused the BTCUSD crash on February 13th, 2012.

http://blog.bitcointitan.com/post/17660291959/cause-of-the-btcusd-crash-on-february-13th-2012

I am happy to have discussions either on my blog, this forum, or on https://ogrr.com/viewtopic.php?f=26&t=909.

http://BitcoinTitan.com - Visualizations of the Bitcoin Markets and Exchanges
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February 15, 2012, 05:19:17 PM
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There was no crash.  Are you confused about market trends?

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Revalin
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February 15, 2012, 05:25:15 PM
 #3

Your premise is wrong.  TradeHill isn't liquidating BitCoins.  BTC holders withdraw in BTC; USD holders withdraw in USD.

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is4tomj
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February 15, 2012, 06:21:07 PM
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There was no crash.  Are you confused about market trends?

Thank for you comment.  A crash is defined as a loss of more than 20%, as seen in 1929 and 1987.  BTCUSD fell from $5.50 to $4.20 within 24 hours.  That is a 23.6% drop.  That is a crash.

Interesting though you consider a 23.6% drop as simply a market trend.  It goes to show that "volatility" is relative and some BTCUSD traders are accustom to the extreme price moves of BTCUSD.

http://BitcoinTitan.com - Visualizations of the Bitcoin Markets and Exchanges
is4tomj
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February 15, 2012, 06:30:29 PM
 #5

Your premise is wrong.  TradeHill isn't liquidating BitCoins.  BTC holders withdraw in BTC; USD holders withdraw in USD.

Thank you for your comment.  It appears that at Trade Hill is working to return one BTC holder's deposit (made in USD), which is currently in BTC, back in USD through Dwolla.  http://tradehillblog.com/2012/02/13/tradehill-suspending-trading-and-returning-client-funds/#comment-580

What source are you using as the basis of your argument?

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February 15, 2012, 06:46:11 PM
 #6

I wouldn't be surprised if they're accommodating some customers with unusual needs, but that's not a mass liquidation of their BTC.

Reading that message I'm not sure if he's actually holding BTC or if he just wants to withdraw his "Bitcoin" (TradeHIll) balance which is really USD.

In any case, my evidence is the fact that they're issuing checks to handle everyone's withdraws.

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is4tomj
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February 15, 2012, 07:18:19 PM
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I wouldn't be surprised if they're accommodating some customers with unusual needs, but that's not a mass liquidation of their BTC.

Reading that message I'm not sure if he's actually holding BTC or if he just wants to withdraw his "Bitcoin" (TradeHIll) balance which is really USD.

In any case, my evidence is the fact that they're issuing checks to handle everyone's withdraws.

Sorry I'm still confused, you said they are handling everyone's withdrawals with checks? Not BTC? If that is the case then they are certainly liquidating BTC.  Also, I'm still curious what your source is to determine which is the norm?

Thanks.

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February 15, 2012, 07:32:28 PM
 #8

Oh, sorry, I was making the point that USD is withdrawn as USD and I completely ignored what you wanted to know.  Smiley

BTC withdrawals are mentioned in the original closure thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=63749.msg746924#msg746924

      War is God's way of teaching Americans geography.  --Ambrose Bierce
Bitcoin is the Devil's way of teaching geeks economics.  --Revalin 165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g
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February 15, 2012, 09:04:42 PM
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There was no crash.  Are you confused about market trends?

Thank for you comment.  A crash is defined as a loss of more than 20%, as seen in 1929 and 1987.  BTCUSD fell from $5.50 to $4.20 within 24 hours.  That is a 23.6% drop.  That is a crash.

Interesting though you consider a 23.6% drop as simply a market trend.  It goes to show that "volatility" is relative and some BTCUSD traders are accustom to the extreme price moves of BTCUSD.
In that case, Bitcoins have had dozens of crashes...
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February 15, 2012, 09:14:17 PM
 #10

In that case, Bitcoins have had dozens of crashes...

Yes - Bitcoins have had dozens of crashes.  It's pretty exciting as markets go.  Smiley

      War is God's way of teaching Americans geography.  --Ambrose Bierce
Bitcoin is the Devil's way of teaching geeks economics.  --Revalin 165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g
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February 15, 2012, 09:35:46 PM
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In that case, Bitcoins have had dozens of crashes...

Yes - Bitcoins have had dozens of crashes.  It's pretty exciting as markets go.  Smiley
Somehow, I knew that sounded stupid as soon as I said it.
is4tomj
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February 15, 2012, 10:08:26 PM
 #12

Oh, sorry, I was making the point that USD is withdrawn as USD and I completely ignored what you wanted to know.  Smiley

BTC withdrawals are mentioned in the original closure thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=63749.msg746924#msg746924

After some research with other tradehill account holders, I believe Revalin is correct, that the majority of the bitcoins and currencies held by tradehill are being returned in their respective forms.  Thus selloff might not be only based on tradehill's liquidation.  It is apparent, however, that there are many exceptions, particularly where deposits were made in currency and not bitcoin.  It is certainly still the case that the dissolution of tradehill, one of the most popular bitcoin exchanges, does not inspire confidence in the market place.

http://BitcoinTitan.com - Visualizations of the Bitcoin Markets and Exchanges
is4tomj
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February 15, 2012, 10:09:14 PM
 #13

In that case, Bitcoins have had dozens of crashes...

Yes - Bitcoins have had dozens of crashes.  It's pretty exciting as markets go.  Smiley
Somehow, I knew that sounded stupid as soon as I said it.

You just have a true trader mentality, "I don't care if the market is going up or down, just as long as it is moving."

http://BitcoinTitan.com - Visualizations of the Bitcoin Markets and Exchanges
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February 15, 2012, 10:18:41 PM
 #14

Yes, I think most of the slide is simply erosion of confidence.  Also note that the volume, while somewhat high, is nothing like what we'd see if there was a mass liquidation.

Rather than speculating more, let me go ask them directly.  Smiley

      War is God's way of teaching Americans geography.  --Ambrose Bierce
Bitcoin is the Devil's way of teaching geeks economics.  --Revalin 165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g
is4tomj
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February 15, 2012, 10:20:57 PM
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Yes, I think most of the slide is simply erosion of confidence.  Also note that the volume, while somewhat high, is nothing like what we'd see if there was a mass liquidation.

Rather than speculating more, let me go ask them directly.  Smiley

I sent a message to Jared Kenna, but I haven't heard back yet.  I will post his response as soon as I get it.

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February 15, 2012, 10:33:23 PM
 #16

Same here.  He's been off for a couple hours.  I'm sure he has a lot of things to do.

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February 15, 2012, 10:40:29 PM
 #17

I don't believe Tradehill is exchanging BTC for USD for any customers.  The link above is likely someone speaking imprecisely.

Tradehill after consulting with lawyers made the determination that they were not compliant with CA regulations and that further trading could open them to criminal and civil prosecution.

Exchanging BTC for USD would be further violation of the regulations they have now openly admitted they aren't compliant with.  If they wanted to flip the bird at the law they could have simply remained open in defiant violation.  To accept the regulations and close (and thus admit they are aware of regulations and their non-compliance) and THEN execute trades to assist customers would be beyond asinine.

is4tomj
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February 15, 2012, 10:43:04 PM
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Same here.  He's been off for a couple hours.  I'm sure he has a lot of things to do.

I am currious about who is eating the $100K loss.  As the updated announcement states, the trade hill guys are raising money for bitcoin.com.  I seems hard to believe that investors taking a $100K bath would be likely to invest again.  

Furthermore, it isn't likely that trade hill incurred a $100K loss over night.  Shouldn't trade hill have seen this coming?  Or been able to adjust before such a staggering loss?

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is4tomj
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February 15, 2012, 10:45:39 PM
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I don't believe Tradehill is exchanging BTC for USD for any customers.  The link above is likely someone speaking imprecisely.

Tradehill after consulting with lawyers made the determination that they were not compliant with CA regulations and that further trading could open them to criminal and civil prosecution.

Exchanging BTC for USD would be further violation of the regulations they have now openly admitted they aren't compliant with.  If they wanted to flip the bird at the law they could have simply remained open in defiant violation.  To accept the regulations and close (and thus admit they are aware of regulations and their non-compliance) and THEN execute trades to assist customers would be beyond asinine.

What are the pertinent CA regulations?  I have not seen anyone from trade hill release a statement about criminal liability or which laws/regulations were the cause.

http://BitcoinTitan.com - Visualizations of the Bitcoin Markets and Exchanges
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February 15, 2012, 11:24:01 PM
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Quote from: is4tomj
Interesting though you consider a 23.6% drop as simply a market trend.  It goes to show that "volatility" is relative and some BTCUSD traders are accustom to the extreme price moves of BTCUSD.

Look at a chart for past year. I looked at mtgox. It's very volatile.  We can say BTC crashes all the time. But BTC isn't subject to quantitative easing and other creative (evil) practices like that.

Why do you think it "crashed"?

as for tradehill
tradehill == "long con"

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