Thanasis Collection Pack

[Thanasis]

Part 1/5

Some thoughts about Technical Analysis.

Is Technical Analysis science?

No, it is not.

The tools of Technical Analysis (indicators, charts, ...) are primitive comparing to the tools of real science.



Part 2/5

The topic of science dealing with the evolution of the prices in markets is Signal Processing.

This evolution is considered by science to be a Random Walk. This means in the most basic level that given the price at a tick, then in the next tick the prices have the same probability to go up or down, so it as as a man who in every step has the same probability to go forward or backward, so his walk is a Random Walk.

This Random Walk is a Brownian movement, because is memoryless. This is as to roll a coin and if the results in 9 successive rolls are head, then (despite what many believe) on the 10th roll the probability to came tail is just 50% and no more. So, according to the Brownian movement the same happens to the prices too.

If the number of ticks are a very big number, then this Brownian movement became a Wiener process. With this assumption the problem is mathematically more simple, because from the discrete mathematics of Brownian movement we proceed to more easy continues mathematics of the Wiener process.



Part 3/5

This Wiener process is dealing as Time series. Given the current price p we set two price targets a and b with b < p < a. This a is the target to Take Profit and b is the price of Stop Loss.

Then mainly we find the probabilities:

Pr/a/b : probability that the prices will hit a before they hit b, that is probability to take our profit before we be forced to proceed to stop loss sell.

Pr/b/a : probability that the prices will hit b before they hit a, that is probability to be forced to proceed to stop loss sell before we could take our profit.

The above probabilities follow the Normal distribution.


Part 4/5

Also we find these probabilities:

t/a : Expected time that the prices will hit a, that is the expected time we will get our target profits.

t/b : Expected time that the prices will hit b, that is the expected time we will be forced to proceed to stop loss sell.

The above expected times follow the Inverse Normal distribution.

All the above can be formulated as a solution of the Black-Scholes stochastic differential diffusion equation.


Part 5/5

Technical Analysis does his job better than science?

Yes, it does.

Despite the tools of Technical Analysis are more primitive than the tools of the science, it is more popular and more effective than science.

This is due in my opinion in this simple fact: The price evolution of the markets are not memoryless, so the movement is not Brownian as is the basis of analysis of the science.

Indeed, in the prices evolution there are trends. We talk about Bullish trend or Bearish trend. But what we mean with trend if not that the prices evolve with memory?

Isn't it true that in the bullish market if the prices today rise, then tomorrow the probability that they will rise again is slightly more then 50%, which means a kind of memory?

So, despite the fact that I come from the Signal Processing team, i prefer when i talk about markets to talk with terms of Technical Analysis and not with terms of Brownian movements.

[Thanasis]

I know that many guys here love the notorious Ichimoku Strategy.

Also i know that as many here love the Ichimoku Strategy, so many here have not the necessary experience in coding.

So it is obvious that here is needed some help.

We, the - more or less - more experienced developers must give this help to the less experienced friends.

In this direction we have:


A.  Definitions.

1) Closing price: The closing price of the last tick.

2) Chikou Span: The closing price plotted 26 ticks behind.

3) Tenkan Sen: The moving average of the highest high and lowest low over the last 9 trading ticks.

4) Kijun Sen: The moving average of the highest high and lowest low over the last 26 trading ticks.

5) Senkou Span A: The average of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, plotted 26 ticks ahead.

6) Senkou Span B: The average of the highest high and lowest low over the last 52 ticks, plotted 26 ticks ahead.

7) Kumo (Cloud): The area between Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B.


B. Coding

1) Close

Code:

 instrument  =   data.instruments[0]
 close           =   instrument.close[instrument.close.length - 1]

2) Chikou Span

Code:

chikou-span  =  instrument.close[instrument.close.length - 26]

3) Tenkan Sen

Code:

hh9    =  _.max(instrument.high[instrument.high.length - 1 - 9 .. instrument.high.length - 1])
ll9    =  _.min(instrument.low[instrument.low.length   - 1 - 9  .. instrument.low.length  - 1])
tenkan_sen =  (hh9 + ll9) / 2

4) Kijun Sen

Code:

hh26    =  _.max(instrument.high[instrument.high.length - 1 - 26 .. instrument.high.length - 1])
ll26    =  _.min(instrument.low[instrument.low.length   - 1 - 26  .. instrument.low.length  - 1])
kijun_sen =  (hh26 + ll26) / 2

5) Senkou Span A

Code:

hhA9    =  _.max(instrument.high[instrument.high.length - 26 - 9 .. instrument.high.length - 26])
llA9    =  _.min(instrument.low[instrument.low.length   - 26 - 9  .. instrument.low.length  - 26])
tenkan_sen_a =  (hhA9 + llA9) / 2
hhA26    =  _.max(instrument.high[instrument.high.length - 26 - 26 .. instrument.high.length - 26])
llA26    =  _.min(instrument.low[instrument.low.length   - 26 - 26  .. instrument.low.length  - 26])
kijun_sen_a =  (hhA26 + llA26) / 2
senkou_span_a = (tenkan_sen_a + kijun_sen_a) / 2

6) Senkou Span B

Code:

hhB52    =  _.max(instrument.high[instrument.high.length - 26 - 52 .. instrument.high.length - 26])
llB52    =  _.min(instrument.low[instrument.low.length   - 26 - 52  .. instrument.low.length  - 26])
senkou_span_b = (hhB52 + llB52) / 2

C. Ordering Signals

1) A bullish signal occurs when the Tenkan Sen crosses from below to above the Kijun Sen.

A bearish signal occurs when the Tenkan Sen crosses from above to below the Kijun Sen.

2) A bullish signal occurs when the price crosses from below to above the Kijun Sen.

A bearish signal occurs when the price crosses from above to below the Kijun Sen.

3) A bullish signal occurs when the price leaves upwards the kumo (=the cloud), that means when the price crosses upwards the max of  Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B.

A bullish signal occurs when the price leaves downwards the kumo (=the cloud), that means when the price crosses downwards the min of  Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B.

4) A bullish signal occurs when the Senkou Span A crosses from below to above the Senkou Span B.

A bearish signal occurs when the Senkou Span A crosses from above to below the Senkou Span B.

5) A bullish signal occurs when the Chikou Span rises from below to above the closing price.

A bearish signal occurs when the Chikou Span falls from above to below the closing price.



D. Conclusions.

The ichimoku Strategy is a good strategy, better and more stable than the EMA strategy.

But as with all things in our life, don't believe in miracles...

[Thanasis]

From about May 25 we live an uptrend, which at the beginning was strong but later it has been weaken.

It is technically declared by the upwards green Uptrend Line (U). This green Uptrend Line (U) was confirmed as such by three points (U1, U2, U3).

As you may know, the more the confirming points of a technical line, the more valid this line is supposed to be.

We keep as a positive signal that the prices are above this green Uptrend Line (U), even if they are close to it.

As a second positive signal is that, as you can see, the prices are also above the blue Support Line (S). This  blue Support Line (S) was also confirmed as such at three points (S1, S2, S3).

All the above technically mean that we may be close to the possible end of the anode wave. This will be technically declared  if the prices breake downwards the green Uptrend Line (U) or even worst if they break the blue Support Line (S).

On the other had, if the prices will touch the green Uptrend Line (U) and then they will be reflected upwards, then this will be a signal of health.

So our manual Strategy will be:

1) If you are in coins then stay as you are.

2) If the prices break downwards the green Uptrend Line (U) then consider to SELL half of your Bitcoins.

3)  If the prices break downwards the  blue Support Line (S) then consider to SELL the rest half of your Bitcoins.

4) If the prices will touch the green Uptrend Line (U)  and then they will be reflected upwards by this line, then consider to BUY.

[Thanasis]

It seems that the Support lile S keeps well...

Meanwhile now it has 4 insted of 3 confirmations points (S1, S2, S3, S4).

For any development i will inform you in time.

[Thanasis]

I have uploaded updates of the ROCKET series bots.

The performance is amazing !!!!

Please visit    https://cryptotrader.org/topics/913623/thanasis-collection-pack  for details.


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Start               10,000 $               10,000 $              10,000 $
       Start             2013/01/01            2013/05/01          2014/01/01   
       End               2014/05/31            2014/05/31          2014/05/31
   ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   ROCKET - A     47,468,474.74 $      2,024,476.03 $        30,506.24 $
   ROCKET - B     38,632,104.33 $      1,647,614.96 $        30,506.24 $
   ROCKET - C     30,491,764.98 $      1,300,451.57 $        30,506.24 $
   ROCKET - D     30,398,306.07 $      1,296,452.91 $        30,506.24 $
 
- 47 millions Backtest:    https://cryptotrader.org/backtests/kdCoFskXKiA4hhhQd

[Thanasis]

As i have warned you the uptrend has been weaken enough because the prices have broken the green uptrend Line U.

Despite the above, the blue Support Line S keeps very well, having continuesly new confirming points.

Now it has 5 insted of 4 confirmations points (S1, S2, S3, S4, S5).

The traders must be very carefull, because if the prices will break this Support Line S then maybe we will have a big fall.

As long as the prices are between the Uptrend Line U and the Support Line S watch carefully and avoid to trade.

[Thanasis]

As we have warned you yesterday:

The traders must be very carefull, because if the prices will break this Support Line S then maybe we will have a big fall (see previous post).

At this moment as you can see the blue Support Line S has been broken.

In any development i will inform you in time.

Stay tuned.

[Thanasis]

As i have already told to you:

1) The strong bullish uptrend which begun about May 25 has been offically  expired when prices had broken the green Uptrend Line U1 on the point A (see some posts ago).

2) The weak bullish uptrend which had follow has been officailly ecpired when prices had broken the green Uptrend Line U2 on the point B ( see some posts ago).

3) Things getting worst because the prices have broken the blue Support Line S on the point C (see yesterday post).

4) Thing getting even more worst becausethe prices are bellow of the new forming red Downtrend Line D.

What to do ?

Ofcourse now you must be in fiat (if you read this thread regularly now you are already in fiat).

In the next hours don't consider to BUY before the prices break upwards the red Downtrend Line D (or even better the blue Support Line S which by now on will behave as Resistance Line R).

For any development against the above i will try to inform you in time.

[Thanasis]

From the last post nothing has been changed (see please last post).

So we keep our position in fiat, until we see the upwards breakage of the red Downtred Line D or even better of the blue Resistance Line (R).

https://cryptotrader.org/topics/913623/thanasis-collection-pack

[Thanasis]

Thank you friends for your support emails.

For many of you asking me about the depth of the possible fall i have prepared the above chart for you.

This is the same chart as the last one, except the time frame that now is 1 day instead of the usual 2 hours time frame.

For your convenience on manual trading i have also added the new green Uptrend Line U3 in order to see until where a possible fall may will reach (i.e. when the prices will reach this line).

It is not a target, but the technically the maximum expected fall by now.

For the rest, the strategy remain the same as in the last posts.


https://cryptotrader.org/topics/913623/thanasis-collection-pack

[cryptshine]

Love ur posts...keep em coming....

Have you thought about a pamm account? would love to follow your account...

http://cointelegraph.com/news/111942/btc-e-adds-pamm-service-for-cryptocurrency-traders

[Thanasis]

Thank you @cryptshine for your good words.

It really interesting the pamm account you suggest. I will consider it and maybe i proceed to open an account like this.

Meanwhile, maybe you don't know that this you had the kindness to suggest me i do in a different manner already.

I mean that what i show here to all of you through the charts of the Technical Analysis, i have coded them in bot scripts which i rent i a monthly basis in the site of the cryptobots https://cryptotrader.org/?r=30.

For example you can follow my blog there https://cryptotrader.org/topics/913623/thanasis-collection-pack where you can find all the details of these bots of mine as also an awesome amount of more information about the market, the autotrading bots, etc.

In this way, trading with the help of the autotrading bots one can be certain that the logic which for example i describe here it will be executed 24h/day, 7 days/ week.

In any case, i will consider your suggestions for which i want to thank you very much.

[Thanasis]

All the guys here who were tuned to this thread they have already bought as soon as the prices have broken the blue Resistance Line R - now it operates as Support Line S (see previous posts).

So, normally now you are already in crypto.

For now on it seems that there are opportunities on trading between the blue Support Line S and the red Downtrend Line D1.

Our strategy will be as follow:

1) Buy when the prices are approaching close the blue Support Line S (or even better when they are reflected by it).

2) Sell when the prices are approaching close the red Downtrend Line D1 (or even better when they are reflected by it).

Reverse immediately your last action if you will see:

3) Sell when the prices break the blue Support Line S downwards (or even worst the Stop Loss blue Line SL)

4) Buy when the prices break the red Downtrend Line D1 upwards.


https://cryptotrader.org/topics/913623/thanasis-collection-pack

[Thanasis]

The prices have been reflected by the red Downtrend Line D1, as it was our basic scenario (see our previous post)   pointing there at the reflecting point a good level to SELL.

I hope that you have already enjoy your gains.

As long as this environment has not been changed we insist in the same strategy, which i repeat it here:

1) Buy when the prices are approaching close the blue Support Line S (or even better when they are reflected by it).

2) Sell when the prices are approaching close the red Downtrend Line D1 (or even better when they are reflected by it).

Reverse immediately your last action if you will see:

3) Sell when the prices break the blue Support Line S downwards (or even worst the Stop Loss blue Line SL)

4) Buy when the prices break the red Downtrend Line D1 upwards.


https://cryptotrader.org/topics/913623/thanasis-collection-pack

[Thanasis]

There is a change that history will be repeated.



https://cryptotrader.org/topics/913623/thanasis-collection-pack

[cryptshine]

Thank you @cryptshine for your good words.

It really interesting the pamm account you suggest. I will consider it and maybe i proceed to open an account like this.

Meanwhile, maybe you don't know that this you had the kindness to suggest me i do in a different manner already.

I mean that what i show here to all of you through the charts of the Technical Analysis, i have coded them in bot scripts which i rent i a monthly basis in the site of the cryptobots https://cryptotrader.org/?r=30.

For example you can follow my blog there https://cryptotrader.org/topics/913623/thanasis-collection-pack where you can find all the details of these bots of mine as also an awesome amount of more information about the market, the autotrading bots, etc.

In this way, trading with the help of the autotrading bots one can be certain that the logic which for example i describe here it will be executed 24h/day, 7 days/ week.

In any case, i will consider your suggestions for which i want to thank you very much.

great will definitely check it out. Thx.

[Thanasis]

Just as a thought, this is the fourth time that we are close to a level that historically the prices have fail 3 times in the past to pass above it (A1, A2, A3 and now A4).

This practically means that maybe it is time for us to take the big profits we have until now.

Of course, we will watch closely the situation and if the prices in spite our sell can pass above this level,then we will reverse our position and we proceed to a new buy.



https://cryptotrader.org/topics/913623/thanasis-collection-pack

[Thanasis]

For your convenience i have drawn the Lines of effective trading in a week horizon traders.

1) Scalping orders:

A) BUY at: When prices are close and above the lower Line.
B) SELL at: When prices are close and below the upper Line.


2) Trend catching orders:

A) BUY stop:  When prices are close and above the upper Line (they break it upwards).
B) SELL stop: When prices are close and bellow the lower Line (they break it downwards).


Also note the health of the last anode in the increasing volume.


https://cryptotrader.org/topics/913623/thanasis-collection-pack

[Thanasis]

1) Scalping orders:

A) BUY at: When prices are close and above the lower Line.
B) SELL at: When prices are close and below the upper Line.


2) Trend catching orders:

A) BUY stop:  When prices are close and above the upper Line (they break it upwards).
B) SELL stop: When prices are close and bellow the lower Line (they break it downwards).


Also note the health of the last anode in the increasing volume.


https://cryptotrader.org/topics/913623/thanasis-collection-pack

[Thanasis]

We have an extra opportunity to BUY due to new forming red Downtrend Line, i.e. if and when the prices will break this line upwards.

For other order (BUY or SELL) details please see the previous post.