Thanasis Collection Pack

[Thanasis]

Looking at these parallel trendlines of the last months and especially the magnitude of their identical slope, maybe somebody can construct a valid strategy of BUY and SELL signals near or on breakage of these lines.

[Thanasis]

As you can see, as the prices has failed to break in a valid way the downtrend line, what was follow was a rapid fall of them.

[Thanasis]

For your convenience i have marked for you 3 points (A, B, C) in the past which have the same statistical characteristics as the fall we live NOW.

As you can see, two of these points have been followed with even more big fall (points A and C) and one point has been followed by a stability area (point B).

Following the instructions which i give to you for time to time, normally now you are in FIAT.

Good opportunities for a quick big profit are ahead of us.

[Thanasis]

It's not yet time to BUY.

You must first see a valid breakage of the red downtrend lines.

[Thanasis]

As long as the prices are inside the region A - B - C - D the trend is a downtrend and it is note wise to BUY.

Normally you must wait of a breakage of the B - C line in order to BUY.

Some opportunities for BUY will also occur if the prices will try to touch the A - B line.

At the moment you must stay at FIAT.

[Thanasis]

What we have seen during 2014 is a three-cycle trend, which i have marked with their corresponding trend lines.

We have the first red Downtrend Line, the second blue Uptrend Line and the third red Downtrend Line.

Every time we had a breakage of the trend line (points A and B), it was followed by a big movement in the opposite direction (arrows green and red).

Now we live the third trendline and you must wait of the C breakage point.

[Thanasis]

The market still remains very weak as not only it doesn't break the red downtrend line, but as you see it can't even approach it.

So, be patient and stay in FIAT.

[Thanasis]

So long and before the recent big fall i was not tired to insist that it was not time to BUY but it was wise to stay in FIAT (see my last posts).

I hope that all of you who had followed my advice, now you haven't any loses.

I would like to show you the real reason why i was expecting this big fall.

It is the negative gap of the prices (point A), long before the real down movement.

Indeed, every time you see such a formation, it is a precious predictive signal of a big movement near soon in the opposite direction.

[Thanasis]

As soon as you may see a decisive breakage from the prices of the red Downtrend line, consider the case of BUY.

[HeroCat]

Probably you are the only one, who are interested in this 
Take care and by the way - think on that

[Thanasis]

As you can see, now (point A) is the time for the decisive breakage of the trendline or not.

[klee]

As you can see, now (point A) is the time for the decisive breakage of the trendline or not.

Would you risk a prediction? Breakout or breakdown?

I think breakout..

[Thanasis]

Look at the volumes B and C.

Anode Volume C is slight higher than Fall Volume  B (say 55 - 45).

Same for the probabilities of breakage.

[Thanasis]

For the new guys here some simple technical indicators lessons:

Would you like to have an indicator that measures just the probability for the next tick that the prices will go up?

Well, this is the RSI indicator.

Indeed, let in the last N ticks we had k anode ticks and m falling ticks.

We will consider the obvious assumption that the process is ergodic, i.e. the last statistical behaviour of the process is more or less repeated.

Then the probability p which we are looking for is:

Code:

p = 100 * (number k of anode ticks in the last N ticks) / (total number N of all ticks)

So,

Code:

p = 100 * k/N

Then,

Code:

p  = 100 * k/N 
p  = 100 * (N - m) / N 
p  = 100 * (1 - m/N)
p  = 100 - 100 * m/N  
p  = 100 - 100 * m/(k + m) 
p  = 100 - 100 * (1/(k/m + 1) 
p  = 100 - 100 /(1+ k/m)

Indeed, Welles Wilder defined the RSI as

Code:

RSI = 100 - 100 / (1 + k/m)

where k/m = (Closes Up) / (Closes Down)

So for example, if for the last N = 100 ticks you have RSI = 56, this practically means that for the next tick you have 56% probability that the prices will go up.

Here is an example of calling Talib RSI function:

Code:

RSIresults = talib.RSI
        inReal: instrument.close
        startIdx: 0
        endIdx: instrument.close.length-1
        optInTimePeriod: context.period
rsi = _.last(RSIresults)[/color]

[Bonez0r]

I'm trying one of your bots on cryptotrader, TOP GUN Bot free version, on Kraken. However, it keeps saying "Your balance exceeds the upper limit of 1000 €. Please upgrade", even though i've decreased the balance to where it is now 2.0BTC and €10. Current price of BTCEUR on Kraken €301, so total balance should be around €612. Am i doing something wrong that it keeps giving that message? And yes i did stop and restart the bot after decreasing the balance.

[Thanasis]

There were an API error on the cryptosite.

Look at this link: https://cryptotrader.org/topics/106833/kraken-api-error

Now it seems that all are perfect.

[Bonez0r]

Thanks for the quick reply. I have a few more questions:

• Where could i find an explanation of the three parameters in Top Gun bot (Aggressive sensitivity, Stop Loss percentage and Volume confirmation)? I've noticed that the default settings (50) don't give optimal results.
• If i use the bot on Bitfinex, does it do exchange orders only (no margin trading)?
• On Bitfinex, does the bot automatically use all funds in the exchange wallet for every trade?
• Does it leave funds in the other two wallets (margin and deposit) untouched?
• Suppose the balance is greater than the upper limit, will the bot still make trades with the maximum amount (€1000) or will it do nothing?

edit: i think the API problem is back (still on Kraken):

2014-10-21 04:00 Your balance exceeds the upper limit of 1000 €. Please upgrade.
2014-10-21 04:00 =====================================================
2014-10-21 04:00 position start: ||| (฿) : 2.00682926 ||| (€) : 10.5
2014-10-21 04:00 position today: ||| (฿) : 2.00682926 ||| (€) : 10.5
2014-10-21 04:00 ≡ price ||| start: 299.959 ||| now: NaN
2014-10-21 04:00 ≡ capital (฿) ||| start: 2.04184471 ||| now: NaN
2014-10-21 04:00 ≡≡ capital (€) ||| start: 612.47 ||| now: NaN
2014-10-21 04:00 ♦♦ efficiency (1 days) : ||| B/H: NaN % ||| Bot: NaN %

I've reported the problem in that thread you linked.

[Thanasis]

Hi BoneZor,

1)

Code:

Where could i find an explanation of the three parameters in Top Gun bot 

Code:

(Aggressive sensitivity, Stop Loss percentage and Volume confirmation)? 

Code:

I've noticed that the default settings (50) don't give optimal results.

Aggressive sensitivity: The more this amount is, the more the frequency of the trades, the more the risk, the more the expected gains.

Stop Loss percentage: The more this amount is, the more the stop loss lever is activated, the less the risk, the more tha false trades.

Volume confirmation: The more this amount is, the more the volume is needed in order the trade signal to be activated.

2)

Code:

If i use the bot on Bitfinex, does it do exchange orders only (no margin trading)?

You will have exchange orders only.

3)

Code:

On Bitfinex, does the bot automatically use all funds in the exchange wallet for every trade?

Yes, all the funds.

4)

Code:

Does it leave funds in the other two wallets (margin and deposit) untouched?

Yes, it leave them untouched.

5)

Code:

Suppose the balance is greater than the upper limit, will the bot still make trades with the maximum amount (€1000) or will it do nothing?

It will do nothing.

I suppose yes, the API problem is back (still on Kraken).

Have a good trading.

Regards.

Thanasis.

[Bonez0r]

Awesome, thanks for the very useful answers. I'll probably use a paid version soon.

[Thanasis]

A simple but effective trading strategy:

Buy at the lowest end of the regression channel and Sell at its highest end.

Also, trade in the same direction when the statistics of the market violate the regression channel, which means Buy on the upper breakage of the highest end and Sell on the down breakage of the lowest end (these two trade signals especially if they are accompanied with high volumes).