Some Bearish Observations.

[CEG5952]

SAR sell signal
https://twitter.com/cryptoinvestor/status/476037630820618240

Remember what happened last time when the daily SAR said sell?

Well, I would never use SAR on its own for buy/sell signals. But I will say, give me a month of sideways here, and I will go long. Not sure at this point...

[KLD]

Looks like we were right to close our long positions Mat!

Although I am still holding my Bitcoin - just glad I'm not still holding on to that leveraged long.

Yep so far so good. Still to see how my re-buys pan out in relation to the price action though (None of my rebuys have been triggered yet).

You were long on Bitfinex I presume?

A very peculiar price decoupling thing going on recently. Bitfinex has been wanting to take off as has Huobi, but Bitstamp  isn't buying into it. Selling pressure on Bitstamp is pushing the market down, even though the volume on Bitfinex is about double what it is on Bitstamp and volume on Huobi is multiple times larger. With Bitstamp currently at $631, and Bitfinex, at  $647, why isn't somebody taking advantage of the arbitrage on offer? Is this the beginning of another Gox situation where the fake volume exchanges race way of ahead of the real volume exchange? (have I mentioned before that I don't trust Bitfinex?). Are there issues with moving fiat out of Bitfinex?

Most peculiar is that Bitstamp (trustworthy, reliable) has reached parity with BTC-e (oo-er). This makes me think that there is a battle going on between leveraged traders and undiluted capital. If traders on Bitfinex think that Bitcoin is worth between $15-$20 more than it is going for on Bitstamp, then why aren't they snapping up those 'cheap' coins on Bitstamp? Because Bitstamp don't do no leverage and Bitfinex traders are already maxed out? Because Bitfinex's version of Willy bot is holding up the price there? Also, Bitfinex route some of their orders through Bitstamp for liquidity, yet as the prices indicate, this seems to be a selective process. Why is it selective and why aren't Bitfinex buying up cheaper Bitstamp coins to fill their own customers orders?

This is strange, and yeah the spread is now $15 to $20 over stamp but bitstamp is at parity with btc-e

[nabeel1992]

SAR sell signal
https://twitter.com/cryptoinvestor/status/476037630820618240

Remember what happened last time when the daily SAR said sell?

https://i.imgur.com/3nXcMJc.png

donot depend on the sar because it is a repainting indicator.No indicator can give you accuracy slways analyze fundamental news before taking any trade

[oda.krell]

SAR sell signal
https://twitter.com/cryptoinvestor/status/476037630820618240

Remember what happened last time when the daily SAR said sell?

Well, I would never use SAR on its own for buy/sell signals. But I will say, give me a month of sideways here, and I will go long. Not sure at this point...

Me neither. That's the point. Daily SAR is quite lagging to begin with, and depending on the larger context, it will produce a signal that is going to cost you. So I'd caution anyone selling (or buying for that matter) just because some guy tweeted "SAR down/up".

[cryptosoma]

I use a bunch of indicators. Ichimoku, MFL, EMA, DMI and SAR. A high-crossing MFL in combination with SAR sell is a good sign to jump out of the train. I'm short since 650-660 USD (Bitfinex). And you?

[oda.krell]

I use a bunch of indicators. Ichimoku, MFL, EMA, DMI and SAR. A high-crossing MFL in combination with SAR sell is a good sign to jump out of the train. I'm short since 650-660 USD (Bitfinex). And you?

What about me? Oh, I get it...

Yeah, I personally don't re-post one line tweets saying "sell nao".

[MatTheCat]

MatTheCat predicts!

Despite the textbook bullish pennant, Bitcoin is more likely to break down before it can break out due to heavy selling pressure that seems to be operating primarily through Bitstamp. I am looking in the first instance for a retest of the $620 range and then we will see where we are and whether Bitcoin wants to rise or correct further down to say $580. In the case that I am totally wrong, then should Bitcoin break above the new long term downtrend resistance line currently at $665 (dating back to Nov 2013), and on strong volume, than that would be a time to go long.

This one came pretty good.....a bit too fucking good and if it doesn't stop soon, it might turn pretty bad. Had buy-in tranches from $600 right down to $560, but all this was happening whilst world cup was on, otherwise I would have been in position to place my buy-ins a bit better.

Big bad bear is operating on Stamp as well, forcing all the leveraged longs out their positions on other exchanges, at least to a certain extent. Built a nice big 1K wall at $575 which is around $10 beneath my average buy-in price.....

.....certainly glad I exited my $660 position though as I would be sweating blood right now. Worse than that. I would have done a Veronica for sure.

[BTCtrader71]

This one came pretty good.....a bit too fucking good and if it doesn't stop soon, it might turn pretty bad. Had buy-in tranches from $600 right down to $560, but all this was happening whilst world cup was on, otherwise I would have been in position to place my buy-ins a bit better.

You may have caught close to the bottom of the knife just perfectly, Mat. Already rebounding. My analysis (I am reposting from rpietila's thread) is that the 80-point drop from 630 to 550 on stamp (a 12% drop) was panic selling as an overreaction to news of the Silk Road selloff.

Here's why I calculate it to be an overreaction: According to http://bitcoinwatch.com/, the volume of BTC traded over the past 24 hours on all exchanges is somewhere around 150,000 btc. (Someone pls verify I'm reading the chart correctly ... ) Compare that to 30,000 btc that the US Marshals Service is going to selloff. Are they going to dump it on a single exchange over the next 10 seconds? No. They are giving us a 19-day warning (payment is due July 1 - see http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/ ). If total trade volume between now and then is (let's say) $2mil btc, an extra 30k just increases the volume over that time period by 1.5% -- a drop in the bucket.

[MatTheCat]

This one came pretty good.....a bit too fucking good and if it doesn't stop soon, it might turn pretty bad. Had buy-in tranches from $600 right down to $560, but all this was happening whilst world cup was on, otherwise I would have been in position to place my buy-ins a bit better.

You may have caught close to the bottom of the knife just perfectly, Mat. Already rebounding. My analysis (I am reposting from rpietila's thread) is that the 80-point drop from 630 to 550 on stamp (a 12% drop) was panic selling as an overreaction to news of the Silk Road selloff.

Here's why I calculate it to be an overreaction: According to http://bitcoinwatch.com/, the volume of BTC traded over the past 24 hours on all exchanges is somewhere around 150,000 btc. (Someone pls verify I'm reading the chart correctly ... ) Compare that to 30,000 btc that the US Marshals Service is going to selloff. Are they going to dump it on a single exchange over the next 10 seconds? No. They are giving us a 19-day warning (payment is due July 1 - see http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/ ). If total trade volume between now and then is (let's say) $2mil btc, an extra 30k just increases the volume over that time period by 1.5% -- a drop in the bucket.

Seems a bit more coordinated than that. Some whale operating on Stamp has been keeping the market down all last week. Of course, foreknowledge of a news event like that could no doubt be easily come by prior to the official announcement.

Also volume does not equal quantity of Bitcoins. Compared to what I was like a few months back, I have been pretty inactive in Bitcoin of late, Still, in the past 3 weeks, I have probably account for 150 Bitcoins worth of trade, with all my entries and exits from the market. I currently hold just 15 BTC. So perhaps a rule of thumb would be to divide volume by 10 in order to find the real amount of Bitcoins that the market has a capacity for holding and in reality, you would have to divide the total volume with a much greater number than 10 in order to find out how much Bitcoin the market players are holding or capable of buying/selling.

[BTCtrader71]

Seems a bit more coordinated than that. Some whale operating on Stamp has been keeping the market down all last week.

Oh c'mon, how do you REALLY know that some "whale" is doing this on purpose? How do you KNOW??

Also volume does not equal quantity of Bitcoins. Compared to what I was like a few months back, I have been pretty inactive in Bitcoin of late, Still, in the past 3 weeks, I have probably account for 150 Bitcoins worth of trade, with all my entries and exits from the market. I currently hold just 15 BTC. So perhaps a rule of thumb would be to divide volume by 10 in order to find the real amount of Bitcoins that the market has a capacity for holding and in reality, you would have to divide the total volume with a much greater number than 10 in order to find out how much Bitcoin the market players are holding or capable of buying/selling.

Here's another way to calculate. The volume on Bitstamp right now is around one-tenth the total volume of all exchanges, according to here: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/
If you were to drop one-tenth of the SR coins (about 3000 coins) right now onto Bitstamp, unexpectedly, in one big market order all at once, the slippage would drop the market by about $45 per coin. Then it would immediately recover a significant chunk of that $45 when people saw the cheap coins and placed orders that they had not placed as limit orders. That tells us that the flash $80 drop was an overreaction.

[BTCtrader71]

Interesting that the prices on Bitstamp and Bitfinex have now equalized.

EDIT: The issue of price differential between stamp and bfx is addressed here:
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/bitcoin-trading-platform-bitfinex-distancing-bitstamp/2014/06/12