Bit_Happy (OP)
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June 10, 2014, 06:48:59 AM |
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The oldest block said only "11 minutes" and by the time I decided to grab the data it was 12 minutes: 305068 2 minutes 21 33.05 BTC Discus Fish 12.18164062 305067 2 minutes 22 186.91 BTC GHash.IO 8.73144531 305066 3 minutes 146 660.13 BTC GHash.IO 84.96386719 305065 7 minutes 67 1,599.99 BTC GHash.IO 124.86132812 305064 8 minutes 181 2,296.68 BTC 23.253.207.62 168.10058594 305063 12 minutes 154 3,689.36 BTC GHash.IO 324.90136719 My last transaction confirmed so fast it was amazing. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) I know this can happen, but isn't it rare for BTC?
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Swordsoffreedom
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June 10, 2014, 06:53:02 AM |
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I haven't heard of a six block solve in less than ten minutes I think the average is 2 to 3 at most unless their is a big hash change Think that means the difficulty will rise faster now or nothing will be solved for a while ? Edit see 305069 https://blockchain.info/
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..Stake.com.. | | | ▄████████████████████████████████████▄ ██ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██ ▄████▄ ██ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██████████ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██ ██████ ██ ██████████ ██ ██ ██████████ ██ ▀██▀ ██ ██ ██ ██████ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██████ ██ █████ ███ ██████ ██ ████▄ ██ ██ █████ ███ ████ ████ █████ ███ ████████ ██ ████ ████ ██████████ ████ ████ ████▀ ██ ██████████ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██████████ ██ ██ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██ ▀█████████▀ ▄████████████▄ ▀█████████▀ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄███ ██ ██ ███▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██████████████████████████████████████████ | | | | | | ▄▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄ █ ▄▀▄ █▀▀█▀▄▄ █ █▀█ █ ▐ ▐▌ █ ▄██▄ █ ▌ █ █ ▄██████▄ █ ▌ ▐▌ █ ██████████ █ ▐ █ █ ▐██████████▌ █ ▐ ▐▌ █ ▀▀██████▀▀ █ ▌ █ █ ▄▄▄██▄▄▄ █ ▌▐▌ █ █▐ █ █ █▐▐▌ █ █▐█ ▀▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▀█ | | | | | | ▄▄█████████▄▄ ▄██▀▀▀▀█████▀▀▀▀██▄ ▄█▀ ▐█▌ ▀█▄ ██ ▐█▌ ██ ████▄ ▄█████▄ ▄████ ████████▄███████████▄████████ ███▀ █████████████ ▀███ ██ ███████████ ██ ▀█▄ █████████ ▄█▀ ▀█▄ ▄██▀▀▀▀▀▀▀██▄ ▄▄▄█▀ ▀███████ ███████▀ ▀█████▄ ▄█████▀ ▀▀▀███▄▄▄███▀▀▀ | | | ..PLAY NOW.. |
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zetaray
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June 10, 2014, 07:28:00 AM |
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This the reason why difficulty has been climbing month after month at an exponential rate. I blame it on too much hashing power on a single pool. I am happy I am not a miner, ROI seems further and further away.
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SirChiko
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June 10, 2014, 07:29:48 AM |
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It means that hashing power had to almost double, no? :O
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The only online casino on which i won something. I made 17mBTC from 1mBTC in like 15 minutes. This is not paid AD!
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erono
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June 10, 2014, 07:41:52 AM |
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Bitcoin on gold rush would be a better on with extra testosterone.
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DeathAndTaxes
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Gerald Davis
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June 10, 2014, 07:47:33 AM Last edit: June 11, 2014, 04:53:06 PM by DeathAndTaxes |
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It means that hashing power had to almost double, no? :O
If the network solved 4032 blocks in the time for 2016 (~2 weeks) then it would mean it doubled. There is a huge amount of variance. The average time between blocks over a period of 6 or even 48 blocks is mostly random noise. Even for 144 blocks (~1 day) there is huge variance.
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ljudotina
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June 10, 2014, 07:50:06 AM |
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It's mix of hashing power going up, and little bit of luck (dont underestimate luck). You can see how diff and hash power is raising (or not) here: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
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Ron~Popeil
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June 10, 2014, 07:53:18 AM |
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Next difficulty might be the last one for my old blades. ![Sad](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/sad.gif)
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Bit_Happy (OP)
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June 10, 2014, 08:48:28 AM |
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It means that hashing power had to almost double, no? :O
If the network solved 4032 blocks in the time for 2016 (~2 weeks) then it would mean it doubled. There is a huge amount of variance. The average time between blocks over 6 blocks over even 48 blocks is mostly random noise. Even for 144 blocks (~1 day) there is huge variance. "Random noise" is correct, but I wonder if this has ever happened before? (other than the really early days of mining) I know I've never had a BTC transaction completely confirmed so fast.
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dserrano5
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June 10, 2014, 09:18:44 AM |
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"Random noise" is correct, but I wonder if this has ever happened before? (other than the really early days of mining) I know I've never had a BTC transaction completely confirmed so fast.
I recall having 4 confirmations in a couple of minutes. That was funding my btc-e wallet to do a quick trade, so the speed was really appreciated ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) .
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fryarminer
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June 10, 2014, 09:24:42 AM |
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Next difficulty might be the last one for my old blades. ![Sad](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/sad.gif) I pulled out after last difficulty. The heat generated in the summer didn't justify the tiny quantities of BTC. I did keep a Jalapeño and decided to solo mine with it. Odds are insanely stupid, but heck! Let's play! Oh, and I kept my AMT miner - Those things are unsellable!
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Divinespark
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June 10, 2014, 12:05:08 PM |
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I also bailed out of my pool The hashing escalation completely killed my RoI
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Meuh6879
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June 10, 2014, 12:19:43 PM |
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lucasjkr
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June 10, 2014, 12:23:25 PM |
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This the reason why difficulty has been climbing month after month at an exponential rate. I blame it on too much hashing power on a single pool. I am happy I am not a miner, ROI seems further and further away.
I don't understand why difficulty increases would be different whether the hashing power is concentrated in a single pool or spread out among many pools. Can expand more on that?
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dockster
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June 10, 2014, 12:34:36 PM |
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it doesn't usually happen that fast... (and sometimes I have to wait like 20 minutes to get my transaction confirmed) ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) They all worked for you lol
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ljudotina
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June 10, 2014, 12:46:17 PM |
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This the reason why difficulty has been climbing month after month at an exponential rate. I blame it on too much hashing power on a single pool. I am happy I am not a miner, ROI seems further and further away.
I don't understand why difficulty increases would be different whether the hashing power is concentrated in a single pool or spread out among many pools. Can expand more on that? It is not. It's eather that poster before you has no idea what he's talking about, or tehere was misunderstanding in what he wanted to type and what he actualy typed. Hash speed is hash speed, in 1 pool or 10 of them. This blocks were just luck, nothing more. Hash speed is going up steady as it used to go up for months now.
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chaosPT
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June 10, 2014, 12:48:22 PM |
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How did they actually count the *confirmation ?
I can see 50-250 % noted something like that on the detail of my transaction
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DeathAndTaxes
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June 10, 2014, 03:12:25 PM Last edit: June 10, 2014, 03:46:24 PM by DeathAndTaxes |
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"Random noise" is correct, but I wonder if this has ever happened before? (other than the really early days of mining) I know I've never had a BTC transaction completely confirmed so fast.
In the early days of mining (2009) there actually was insufficient hashrate to meet the min difficulty of 1. The average time between blocks varied from 12 minutes to 16 minutes. If the protocol allowed the difficulty to be lowered below 1 it would have there was so little hashrate. So it would have been less common in the early days. It is certainly uncommon. I am not sure how often it has occurred in the past but here are the odds. Mining is a Poisson distribution. So if difficulty and hashrate were in perfect equilibrium in an 11 minute period one would expect 1.1 blocks. The probability of getting 6 or more events when 1.1 is expected is 0.1% so it would occur on average every 1033 events or roughly once a week. However the hashrate currently exceeds the difficulty and the time between blocks averages less than 10 minutes (currently 8:59) so this means the probability is about 0.17% and it would be expected roughly once in 606 blocks. Now those are the odds based on pure math. In reality higher block frequency (on the best chain) is less common because in the real world there are propogation delays and that means the shorter the interval the more instead of 2 blocks in a row you have 2 competing blocks (A -> B1 & A-> B2 instead of A -> B -> C). One last thing is this assumes the block timestamps were actually correct it is possible the first or last one was early or late and thus the actual period of time was longer. Still it does show why Satoshi was so conservative with the target block interval. Imagine if Bitcoin had a 30 second block and now imagine the tx volume was so high those blocks averaged 10MB. The network would need to propagate and sync 60MB of data to all nodes in less than 33 seconds or there would be orphans (potentially multiple).
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eleuthria
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June 10, 2014, 03:40:06 PM |
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6 blocks in 10 minutes has happened a few times before, just like 0 blocks in 60 minutes happens about once a month. 6 in 10 minutes is a bit rarer though.
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RIP BTC Guild, April 2011 - June 2015
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Magic8Ball
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June 10, 2014, 04:27:08 PM |
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I think some 40-50 days back it was really fast. Sometimes there would be 3 confirms in a couple of minutes.
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