Six blocks in 11 minutes! Bitcoin on steroids?

[OROBTC]

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With so many here who know more than I do,,, I hesitate to comment, but I think "DeathAndTaxes" has it right:

Probability!

Sometimes the unusual happens.

I once saw a time difference of 75 some minutes between blocks not too long ago.

***

When I get back I will have to consult my probability text on "Poisson Distribution".

[Harley997]

The oldest block said only "11 minutes" and by the time I decided to grab the data it was 12 minutes:

305068   2 minutes   21   33.05 BTC   Discus Fish   12.18164062
305067   2 minutes   22   186.91 BTC   GHash.IO   8.73144531
305066   3 minutes   146   660.13 BTC   GHash.IO   84.96386719
305065   7 minutes   67   1,599.99 BTC   GHash.IO   124.86132812
305064   8 minutes   181   2,296.68 BTC   23.253.207.62   168.10058594
305063   12 minutes   154   3,689.36 BTC   GHash.IO   324.90136719

My last transaction confirmed so fast it was amazing. 
I know this can happen, but isn't it rare for BTC?

This is not all that unheard of. Especially considering how fast the network is expanding.

[haploid23]

According to the rule of infinite possibilities, there could even be 100 blocks found in 11 minutes. It's possible, just highly improbable. When difficulty adjust every 2 weeks, everything averages out according to total network hashrate.

[Harley997]

According to the rule of infinite possibilities, there could even be 100 blocks found in 11 minutes. It's possible, just highly improbable. When difficulty adjust every 2 weeks, everything averages out according to total network hashrate.

You are correct in saying this, however the law of probabilities says that something with a certain probability should happen once every x time on average.

Having 6 blocks mined in 11 minutes happens relatively often. I am not sure exactly how often, it isn't once every two weeks, but also not once every three months.

[keithers]

"Random noise" is correct, but I wonder if this has ever happened before?  (other than the really early days of mining)
I know I've never had a BTC transaction completely confirmed so fast.

I recall having 4 confirmations in a couple of minutes. That was funding my btc-e wallet to do a quick trade, so the speed was really appreciated .

I have had this same exact thing happen on a few occasions. Most of the time it takes significantly longer though 

[Ron~Popeil]

According to the rule of infinite possibilities, there could even be 100 blocks found in 11 minutes. It's possible, just highly improbable. When difficulty adjust every 2 weeks, everything averages out according to total network hashrate.

Yes, variance is perfectly normal in any statistical model. People often see it as a pattern but it is simply statistical outliers.

[DrG]

The rapid block sequences will tend to occur right before a difficulty change if we're growing rapidly.  Look back to those increases where we had 30% jumps and the last couple of days they wold come out rapid fire.

[jl2012]

It means that hashing power had to almost double, no? :O

If the network solved 40322016 blocks in the time for 20161008 (~21 weeks) then it would mean it doubled.   There is a huge amount of variance.  The average time between blocks over 6 blocks over even 48 blocks is mostly random noise.  Even for 144 blocks (~1 day) there is huge variance.

FTFY

[Unluckyduck]

It happens occasionally and it is probably due to GHASH.io's majority of the hash power (notice 4 out of the 6 are theirs).

[BitsBitsBits]

Ghash is on steroids.

[ljudotina]

It happens occasionally and it is probably due to GHASH.io's majority of the hash power (notice 4 out of the 6 are theirs).

No...it has NOTHING to do with where hash power is. On 1 pool or 1000 pools, it has absolutley  no effect. Hash power is hash power. It's all about hash power and statistical luck. As some said before, it happened before, it will happen again. Sometimes you get rapid ones, sometimes you wait for 1 hour to get 1....pure and simple luck. Nothing more, nothing less.

[Bubbles06]

How far ahead of the block schedule is bitcoin overall? Is it adding up over time to put us significantly ahead of schedule? Block reward halving going to come sooner than predicted before?

[dserrano5]

How far ahead of the block schedule is bitcoin overall? Is it adding up over time to put us significantly ahead of schedule? Block reward halving going to come sooner than predicted before?

If blocks were found exactly each 10 minutes, we'd be expecting a halving in January 2017, however we're more going into August 2016.

[hellscabane]

6 blocks in 10 minutes has happened a few times before, just like 0 blocks in 60 minutes happens about once a month.  6 in 10 minutes is a bit rarer though.

Since DeathandTaxes did the math for the frequency of the OPs post, I couldn't help but do the comparison of this during one of my breaks at work. Hehe.

With ideal block propagation averages:

6 blocks in 10 minutes (i.e. P[X=6] for λ=1) once every ~13.6 days.
0 blocks in 60 minutes (i.e. P[X=0] for λ=6) once every ~16.8 days.

As a note the chances of 6 or more blocks in 10 minutes (i.e. 1-P[X<6] for λ=1) is once every ~11.6 days.

So it seems that 6 blocks in 10 minutes is a bit more common than no blocks in the expected time for 6 blocks.

[ljudotina]

How far ahead of the block schedule is bitcoin overall? Is it adding up over time to put us significantly ahead of schedule? Block reward halving going to come sooner than predicted before?

http://bitcoinclock.com/

This will help you alot.

[OROBTC]

...

ljudotina

Nice link!  Thank you.

[boumalo]

How far ahead of the block schedule is bitcoin overall? Is it adding up over time to put us significantly ahead of schedule? Block reward halving going to come sooner than predicted before?

If blocks were found exactly each 10 minutes, we'd be expecting a halving in January 2017, however we're more going into August 2016.

More or less depending on the hash rate change until then

[Bubbles06]

How far ahead of the block schedule is bitcoin overall? Is it adding up over time to put us significantly ahead of schedule? Block reward halving going to come sooner than predicted before?

If blocks were found exactly each 10 minutes, we'd be expecting a halving in January 2017, however we're more going into August 2016.

How far ahead of the block schedule is bitcoin overall? Is it adding up over time to put us significantly ahead of schedule? Block reward halving going to come sooner than predicted before?

http://bitcoinclock.com/

This will help you alot.

Thanks to both you.

[Magic8Ball]

How far ahead of the block schedule is bitcoin overall? Is it adding up over time to put us significantly ahead of schedule? Block reward halving going to come sooner than predicted before?

If blocks were found exactly each 10 minutes, we'd be expecting a halving in January 2017, however we're more going into August 2016.

It may be even earlier.

I would not be surprised if it happened as early as in 2015.

[dserrano5]

It will be earlier, I was just pointing to the current estimation.