Six blocks in 11 minutes! Bitcoin on steroids?

[ljudotina]

Yes, it all depends on how much hash is added to network in between diff changes. Steeper change, sooner it will get.

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[Bit_Happy]

Just had 6 blocks within 16 minutes (ending ~17 minutes ago)

305463    17 minutes    395    2,273.73 BTC    72.83.147.125    243.36
305462    22 minutes    32    504.36 BTC    Polmine    14.85
305461    26 minutes    81    497.38 BTC    Slush    46.14
305460    27 minutes    35    469.12 BTC    GHash.IO    21.07
305459    24 minutes    432    46,996.86 BTC    BTC Guild    287.12
305458    33 minutes    128    101,239.74 BTC    Polmine    148.88

Obviously a few fast blocks is just from random odds.

6 blocks in 10 minutes has happened a few times before, just like 0 blocks in 60 minutes happens about once a month.  6 in 10 minutes is a bit rarer though.

Since DeathandTaxes did the math for the frequency of the OPs post, I couldn't help but do the comparison of this during one of my breaks at work. Hehe.

With ideal block propagation averages:

6 blocks in 10 minutes (i.e. P[X=6] for λ=1) once every ~13.6 days.
0 blocks in 60 minutes (i.e. P[X=0] for λ=6) once every ~16.8 days.

As a note the chances of 6 or more blocks in 10 minutes (i.e. 1-P[X<6] for λ=1) is once every ~11.6 days.

So it seems that 6 blocks in 10 minutes is a bit more common than no blocks in the expected time for 6 blocks.

So it is normal over twice (or even three times) a month?
Seeing the math is amazing thank you and DeathandTaxes for doing that.

[hellscabane]

Just had 6 blocks within 16 minutes (ending ~17 minutes ago)

305463    17 minutes    395    2,273.73 BTC    72.83.147.125    243.36
305462    22 minutes    32    504.36 BTC    Polmine    14.85
305461    26 minutes    81    497.38 BTC    Slush    46.14
305460    27 minutes    35    469.12 BTC    GHash.IO    21.07
305459    24 minutes    432    46,996.86 BTC    BTC Guild    287.12
305458    33 minutes    128    101,239.74 BTC    Polmine    148.88

Obviously a few fast blocks is just from random odds.

6 blocks in 10 minutes has happened a few times before, just like 0 blocks in 60 minutes happens about once a month.  6 in 10 minutes is a bit rarer though.

Since DeathandTaxes did the math for the frequency of the OPs post, I couldn't help but do the comparison of this during one of my breaks at work. Hehe.

With ideal block propagation averages:

6 blocks in 10 minutes (i.e. P[X=6] for λ=1) once every ~13.6 days.
0 blocks in 60 minutes (i.e. P[X=0] for λ=6) once every ~16.8 days.

As a note the chances of 6 or more blocks in 10 minutes (i.e. 1-P[X<6] for λ=1) is once every ~11.6 days.

So it seems that 6 blocks in 10 minutes is a bit more common than no blocks in the expected time for 6 blocks.

So it is normal over twice (or even three times) a month?
Seeing the math is amazing thank you and DeathandTaxes for doing that.

Yes, it's normal for the six block thing to happen multiple times in a month. I know, crazy huh? That's the funny thing about probabilities and proportionality. When something has a .05% chance of happening, something in a lot of people instinctively think that is super rare. But over the scale of thousands of events such as a month of which there are around 4,300 10-minute events, that .05% event has an expectancy of occurring about 2 times.

As a side note, we would expect a 7-block event once every ~3 months, an 8-block event every ~2 years, a 9-block event every ~2 decades and a 10-block event ~2 "lifetimes" (about 187 years). Mind you though, this is assuming "normal" block propagation times (which we are running faster than at the moment).

[Harley997]

Yes, it all depends on how much hash is added to network in between diff changes. Steeper change, sooner it will get.

It has to do with luck as well.

[Justin00]

still means my coffee woulda been cold if a) coffee shop accepted bitcoins and b) waited for 6 confirms
but ya, 6 in 11 mins is not to shaby at all

[Harley997]

still means my coffee woulda been cold if a) coffee shop accepted bitcoins and b) waited for 6 confirms
but ya, 6 in 11 mins is not to shaby at all

Merchants that sell low value products like coffee could rely on 0/unconfirmed TX as it would cost a lot to attempt a double spend attack on a $5 purchase

[JypsiCreme]

Why the hell is it compared to anything on steroids?

[Sniar]

This the reason why difficulty has been climbing month after month at an exponential rate. I blame it on too much hashing power on a single pool. I am happy I am not a miner, ROI seems further and further away.

Yup , new miner is really taking a lot time to cover their investment tho and it might take longer than just buying the bitcoin outright.

[Harley997]

This the reason why difficulty has been climbing month after month at an exponential rate. I blame it on too much hashing power on a single pool. I am happy I am not a miner, ROI seems further and further away.

Yup , new miner is really taking a lot time to cover their investment tho and it might take longer than just buying the bitcoin outright.

Most miners will never reach ROI and never will they. Miners have to pay for electric costs out of their mining proceeds, and when electric costs exceed their proceeds they will shut off their miners.