THE OIL AND GAS BUBBLE IS ABOUT TO POP!!!

[bryant.coleman]

While I agree that China and India are going to put an increased demand on oil reserves in the near term....the environmental impact will definitely play a role in tweaking it a bit.  Already, Beijing has rampant pollution problems to the point that people are wearing masks there and its covered in a thick hazy fog.  They have to do something to curb car pollution, which will ultimately force oil demand down in the long run.

The Chinese government is considering to replace diesel and gasoline driven vehicles with those driven by CNG (from the Russia pipeline) by 2018. It will reduce the pollution. But only a fraction of the Chinese population lives in Beijing. The other cities will continue to use oil.

[tinof]

While I agree that China and India are going to put an increased demand on oil reserves in the near term....the environmental impact will definitely play a role in tweaking it a bit.  Already, Beijing has rampant pollution problems to the point that people are wearing masks there and its covered in a thick hazy fog.  They have to do something to curb car pollution, which will ultimately force oil demand down in the long run.

The Chinese government is considering to replace diesel and gasoline driven vehicles with those driven by CNG (from the Russia pipeline) by 2018. It will reduce the pollution. But only a fraction of the Chinese population lives in Beijing. The other cities will continue to use oil.

Government should invest in mass transits technology and avoid having everyone needing a car.

[JohnnyLightning]

It's probably contrived, but the Iraqi crisis will keep the price up for now.  Then there will be another crisis to do the same thing.

[Bitcoin-hotep]

Demand for energy and oil is increasing throughout the world (this is what really matters).

Here is the proof:



The oil consumption might be stable in the US and the EU. But in India and China, it is rising sharply.

And how much oil were these countries producing 80 years ago compared to now? You don't think that ALL these countries are spiking in production and will continue to go UP?

[ThomasCrowne]

I have been in to Bitcoin and Altcoins for about 2 years now, and I know a bubble when I see one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMHkLyQrooo

I don't think the oil bubble will burst just yet, instead we would see more wars to try to take the resources.

Hate to say it but I agree with this fella.  We will just come up with additional reasons to invade whatever oil producing countries aren't bending to our will.  WMD, humanitarian aid, terrorist threat take your pick.  Our government has gotten quite adept with their wholly owned media sources convincing the public of things that just aren't true.

[bryant.coleman]

Government should invest in mass transits technology and avoid having everyone needing a car.

The Chinese government has invested a lot in Mass Transportation technologies, such as the Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Rail. But the number of cars are still growing at a rapid pace.

[Harley997]

While I agree that China and India are going to put an increased demand on oil reserves in the near term....the environmental impact will definitely play a role in tweaking it a bit.  Already, Beijing has rampant pollution problems to the point that people are wearing masks there and its covered in a thick hazy fog.  They have to do something to curb car pollution, which will ultimately force oil demand down in the long run.

The Chinese government is considering to replace diesel and gasoline driven vehicles with those driven by CNG (from the Russia pipeline) by 2018. It will reduce the pollution. But only a fraction of the Chinese population lives in Beijing. The other cities will continue to use oil.

Government should invest in mass transits technology and avoid having everyone needing a car.

Mass transit is only profitable if it is transporting people over relatively short distances that is heavily traveled (eg in cities).

[Sithara007]

And how much oil were these countries producing 80 years ago compared to now? You don't think that ALL these countries are spiking in production and will continue to go UP?

Right now the total oil production is around 93,250,000 per day, with the US accounting for more than 20% of it. The consumption in the US might remain stable, but that in China (9.8 m), Japan (4.5m), India (3.3m), and Saudi Arabia (2.8m) are growing very rapidly.

[bryant.coleman]

And how much oil were these countries producing 80 years ago compared to now? You don't think that ALL these countries are spiking in production and will continue to go UP?

Right now the total oil production is around 93,250,000 per day, with the US accounting for more than 20% of it. The consumption in the US might remain stable, but that in China (9.8 m), Japan (4.5m), India (3.3m), and Saudi Arabia (2.8m) are growing very rapidly.

Check these graphs:





The renewables won't be accounting to more than 5% by 2030. The remaining 95% will have to be covered by Uranium, Coal, Oil and Gas.

[Bitcoin-hotep]

I have been in to Bitcoin and Altcoins for about 2 years now, and I know a bubble when I see one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMHkLyQrooo

I don't think the oil bubble will burst just yet, instead we would see more wars to try to take the resources.

Hate to say it but I agree with this fella.  We will just come up with additional reasons to invade whatever oil producing countries aren't bending to our will.  WMD, humanitarian aid, terrorist threat take your pick.  Our government has gotten quite adept with their wholly owned media sources convincing the public of things that just aren't true.

You guys are acting as if Fracking was not invented.

There is a NEW way to drill for oil, that is CHEAPER and gives them access to MANY times the amount of oil they had before.

In Colorado alone we have commercials talking about some crazy amounts coming out of the ground, and they are getting SO much oil that they can afford to just make random commercials about it to make us like it. They are on YouTube they are on TV they are on Bus Stops, they are everywhere. I can't imagine that we have seen the price drop that this is bringing.

[Bitcoin-hotep]

And how much oil were these countries producing 80 years ago compared to now? You don't think that ALL these countries are spiking in production and will continue to go UP?

Right now the total oil production is around 93,250,000 per day, with the US accounting for more than 20% of it. The consumption in the US might remain stable, but that in China (9.8 m), Japan (4.5m), India (3.3m), and Saudi Arabia (2.8m) are growing very rapidly.

Check these graphs:





The renewables won't be accounting to more than 5% by 2030. The remaining 95% will have to be covered by Uranium, Coal, Oil and Gas.

That seems like a VERY conservative estimate of 2030.
Sure, if things continue the way they are I could see 5% renewable. But things don't look like they are going to stay the same. There are now windmills in TEXAS, Kansas, California and various other states (I made the word Texas big because you wouldn't even expect them to do that, but even they are doing it).

I would say that by 2030 China will HAVE to change to renewables, or they will kill off their own people with smog and their development will cease.

[Bitcoin-hotep]

Fracking = scraping the bottom of the barrel = peak oil. If there where oceans of oil available to supply the worlds needs there would be no point in throwing money at squeezing it out of rocks. The nouveau riche (China, India soon, etc.) want there turn at westerners glutinous and decadent lifestyles too so unless someone pulls something pretty damned amazing out of their ass then we'll be going on a diet.

There's a fair number of these threads recently, "the earth is flat" type topics that fly straight in the face of obvious truths, the style of writing is similar between them too

Again,
Fracking is NEW. People have ALWAYS (previously) been struggling to get oil. That is not new news.
The new news is that oil is EASIER TO GET NOW (because of fracking).

How is this not penetrating your denseness?

[Schleicher]

Well, let's wait and see if it is that easy.

[Bitcoin-hotep]

Ex:
Let's say that the ONLY known source of sugar was grapes. They have a good source of sugar, but they grow fairly slowly and you really only use the fruit to do anything with, so it is kind of costly to use for sugar. Then there is the fact that people want to use grapes for wine.

This is a good analogy because oil is hard and costly to get, like getting at the fruit of a plant. And people use oil to make things like plastic products, which is like people using grapes for wine.

Now.
Say we discovered sugar cane THIS YEAR, and discovered that we could start using it for sugar production AND to make Rum in place of wine (in the oil example we can still make plastics with fracking oil, and new sources like hemp plastics and other forms of plastic being made).

So...
We still have grapes all over the world, people are still harvesting grapes and doing their thing. But now there is basically a NEW sugar industry, that produces MORE sugar than the old one. The new one is adopting it now, but I am sure their are people that are sticking to the old ways because they don't want to buy new equipment or whatever.

But with the new "Rum" and "Sugar" in market, fresh wine will not be so expensive because it has competition and will want to be able to compete against the rum producers in price so consumers will pay for it. Same with sugar, any sugar made from grapes will either be PUSHED OUT because they cost too much, OR will go down in value because of the new sugar influx.

Do you get it?

[Bitcoin-hotep]

Well, let's wait and see if it is that easy.

To me it looks like we are back to the place I said. In the 1990s and 2000s, gas was $1ish a gallon. And I don't remember wages going up 4x since then... We are in a bubble.

[Bitcoin-hotep]

Fracking = scraping the bottom of the barrel = peak oil. If there where oceans of oil available to supply the worlds needs there would be no point in throwing money at squeezing it out of rocks. The nouveau riche (China, India soon, etc.) want there turn at westerners glutinous and decadent lifestyles too so unless someone pulls something pretty damned amazing out of their ass then we'll be going on a diet.

There's a fair number of these threads recently, "the earth is flat" type topics that fly straight in the face of obvious truths, the style of writing is similar between them too

Again,
Fracking is NEW. People have ALWAYS (previously) been struggling to get oil. That is not new news.
The new news is that oil is EASIER TO GET NOW (because of fracking).

How is this not penetrating your denseness?

How is fracking easier than drilling and pumping and is fracking cheaper or more expensive than drilling and pumping? If fracking is more expensive than drilling and pumping (it is, considerably) and oil's at $112 a barrel now, what happens to the price when fracked oil makes up a greater percentage of supply?

I've not read through the rest of the posts because its simply naive to think oil will go down in price in the long term. Maybe someone has already mentioned oils 15 barrels to the ounce connection, Islams issues with paper money and the unusual and logic defying activities on the markets since high frequency trading took off. Personally I can't be arsed but might pop back for a "told you so" sometime.

AGAIN

We (here in Colorado) have commercials about this stuff. And they have LITERALLY told us that we will be able to get enough oil for the next few decades like NOW, and we will continue to be getting more (or they wouldn't be making ads to ask us to support fracking, they would just try to get all the oil out right now and be done with it, but that is not possible because there is SO much).

Now...
This is ONE state. There is Texas and Alaska, which I am pretty sure produce more than Colorado. THEN there is Venezuela, Canada and all the smaller surrounding nations that have oil under them.

Then there is the middle east.

If Colorado can get enough oil to support itself for the next few decades NOW, then what makes you think the world can't do that very soon?
And once there is THAT MUCH oil just floating around, the countries with smaller populations will start flooding the market of places like America and China until FINALLY, the Bubble (that we ARE in) will pop.

[Bitcoin-hotep]

Ex: We have all heard that "Fracking can make America reliant on its OWN source of oil instead of dependence on foreign oil" but what happens when the foreign countries are ALL self sufficient also, and have oil to sell us that is CHEAPER than the oil we can pull out of the ground ourselves? People will start buying the cheaper stuff. Bubble pops.

[Bitcoin-hotep]

Well, let's wait and see if it is that easy.

If someone can look at ^^THIS^^ graph and NOT see a bubble, they are blind.

[Bitcoin-hotep]

Also, this is a little of topic, but I recently saw an episode of VICE where they talked about the North Pole glaciers and stuff and they were talking about how there is over 30% of the worlds oil reserves are under the ice up there. And as we melt everything, more of it becomes available, and as drilling tech gets better, more of it becomes available.

So not only has fracking opened up oil that was previously inaccessible, there are now oil fields that HAVE melted open and ARE melting open, and America has a claim to a percentage of that land, since they own Alaska and the water around Alaska makes America a "border" to the North Pole.

So, no matter what, there is tons of oil coming on the market. It doesn't matter if it comes from the deserts or the tundras or South America or Africa, it's coming.

[Bitcoin-hotep]

Now I am watching an episode of VICE about Exxon Mobile in New Guinea, and I am pretty sure that the Bubble is not only popping, but these people will soon be considered Global Criminals.

There is also an Epidemic around the gulf, where because American lobbyist have us using toxic outdated oil cleaning methods, the oil is not gone, it is just at the bottom of the ocean and comes back up every time there is a storm or something.

Then there is shit like FOX news having Bill Nye on all the time for "debates" and instead of debating about SOLUTIONS or the FOX people trying to convince Bill that there IS clean oil and coal (if there is MORALLY clean oil and coal I would like to hear about it) and instead they argue about whether or not climate change is real. Which is fucking ridiculous.

So I think we are in a moment of boom, which will FINALLY pop this bubble they created by telling us this stuff was rare and that we were running out. THEN there will be a global outcry because oil people are FUCKING over people, FUCKING the environment and RAPING the planet with drills. Fracking take THOUSANDS of gallons of water, and makes the water poisonous. This is happening ALL OVER the planet.

So all of this is kind of coming to a tipping point all at once.