Much to my surprise that is a pretty good article. Nothing personal it is just that so much written about hash rate and difficulty is just garbage.
I tried to be as objective about this stuff as I could
I'm certainly interested in hearing about any aspects of the statistics that I might have missed though.
I am interested in seeing if there's a way to get better long-term predictions (short term just has way too much statistical noise) but there are even more unknowns once we have to guess average energy costs, average hash costs and what the BTC price will look like. While hash rate growth is currently slowing (and ultimately has to slow more) there's certainly a lot of scope for it to increase substantially if any of those factors were to suddenly change.