The Cryptocoin Value Cycle (CVC)

[lordoliver]

The Cryptocoin Value Cycle (CVC)

I was following the prices of the last years and found a cycle. The cycle lasts 7 to 9 months and starts then again from the beginning. If you stay in the right coins at the right time you can get a lot of money out of it. Of course this is only your decision and I may also be wrong. So don't blame me, if you loose ;-)
I just want you to participate on my findings.

To make sure, we are talking about the same.
You have 4 types of cryptocoins (of course this is only a approximation, some may be between):
- BTC
- IAs: new innovative Altcoins like NXT, DRK
- OAs: ordinary altcoins. founded older Altcoins like LTC, Dodge.
- DAs: dying Altcoins

I have to make these differences, because the IAs are often heavily undervalued and can have their own cycle on top of all where DAs are dropping no matter what. So I am talking only of OAs in general here. Its always good to be in IAs, it will grow for sure. They are maybe not so dependend on BTC price as a OA is. But they may also grow less or even drop in a phase, where OAs in general crash as a DA can even raise in a hype phase.
It may also be possible in the future, that IAs are taking over BTC and the Phases are getting based on them.

Here are the Phases:

1. Pre-Hype Phase
Bitcoin is raising a little, OAs can get a little downtrend in btc but mostly keep their market cap.
There can be a BTC bear trap in this time. This is a perfect invitation to buy a little more BTC.
Occurance: Feb 2013, Oct 2013, June/July 2014

2. Hype Phase
Bitcoin is skyrocketing. OAs are running along and keep the BTC exchange price, but by the end of the phase they skyrocket even more.
Bitcoin can get up to 10-fold in $, but of course there are sometimes cycles, where BTC "only" raises 3-fold. OAs can get up to 10-fold in BTC at the end. So you can make up to 100 fold in a good hype if you hold OAs!
Occurance: Mar/Apr 2013, November 2013, probably July/Aug 2014

3. Crash Phase
Bitcoin is dropping about 2/3. OAs are dropping even more. So its better to be not too much in Altcoins in this period. After the crash the OAs have about the same BTC trade rate as before the hype.
Occurance: Apr - Jun 2013, Dez 2013 - Mar 2014

4. Normalization Phase
BTC prices are rebounding and get maybe stable over a certain amount of time. OAs are also relativly stable.
Occurances: Aug/Sep 2013, May 2014

I hope you like it. If so, feel free to tip on the BTC address in my profile.
Lordoliver

[Marlo Stanfield]

I have to make these differences, because the IAs are often heavily undervalued

Why do think that is? I've noticed a lot of resistance and very little acknowledgment of new technologies in general. People don't seem to care much, do they?

[lordoliver]

I have to make these differences, because the IAs are often heavily undervalued

Why do think that is? I've noticed a lot of resistance and very little acknowledgment of new technologies in general. People don't seem to care much, do they?

yes they do, but they mostly realize it to late, because they don't fully understand it first. Then they are a little untrusting. New things are sometimes breaking very fast.
But then more and more people find their trust and thats why it takes time.
The problem is - like bitcoin - that the value is so high, that you can come there only with hypes and those are always followed by crash periods. You can see that very good in Darkcoin.

[Nxtblg]

Interesting...except for time-length, that pattern is a lot like gold stocks during a gold bull market and after. First the seniors rise, then the juniors, then some of the bottom-tiers skyrocket. And when gold stumbles and tumbles, the seniors plummet, the juniors plunge and what happens in the bottom tier can be best described as "carnage." The last crack up in the bottom-tier penny golds, in 2011-12, was so bad that the Venture Stock Exchange actually had to bend the rules for financings: otherwise, quite a few exploration pennies would have ran out of capital and wound up dormant.

[Marlo Stanfield]

Interesting...except for time-length, that pattern is a lot like gold stocks during a gold bull market and after. First the seniors rise, then the juniors, then some of the bottom-tiers skyrocket. And when gold stumbles and tumbles, the seniors plummet, the juniors plunge and what happens in the bottom tier can be best described as "carnage." The last crack up in the bottom-tier penny golds, in 2011-12, was so bad that the Venture Stock Exchange actually had to bend the rules for financings: otherwise, quite a few exploration pennies would have ran out of capital and wound up dormant.

Interesting. How quickly do these gold stocks go down when the gold price goes down? Are we taking seconds, or minutes?

Do you think one could learn a lot about the bitcoin market from looking at the gold market in general?

[Este Nuno]

The Cryptocoin Value Cycle (CVC)

I was following the prices of the last years and found a cycle. The cycle lasts 7 to 9 months and starts then again from the beginning. If you stay in the right coins at the right time you can get a lot of money out of it. Of course this is only your decision and I may also be wrong. So don't blame me, if you loose ;-)
I just want you to participate on my findings.

To make sure, we are talking about the same.
You have 4 types of cryptocoins (of course this is only a approximation, some may be between):
- BTC
- IAs: new innovative Altcoins like NXT, DRK
- OAs: ordinary altcoins. founded older Altcoins like LTC, Dodge.
- DAs: dying Altcoins

I have to make these differences, because the IAs are often heavily undervalued and can have their own cycle on top of all where DAs are dropping no matter what. So I am talking only of OAs in general here. Its always good to be in IAs, it will grow for sure. They are maybe not so dependend on BTC price as a OA is. But they may also grow less or even drop in a phase, where OAs in general crash as a DA can even raise in a hype phase.
It may also be possible in the future, that IAs are taking over BTC and the Phases are getting based on them.

Here are the Phases:

1. Pre-Hype Phase
Bitcoin is raising a little, OAs can get a little downtrend in btc but mostly keep their market cap.
There can be a BTC bear trap in this time. This is a perfect invitation to buy a little more BTC.
Occurance: Feb 2013, Oct 2013, currently

2. Hype Phase
Bitcoin is skyrocketing. OAs are running along and keep the BTC exchange price, but by the end of the phase they skyrocket even more.
Bitcoin can get up to 10-fold in $, but of course there are sometimes cycles, where BTC "only" raises 3-fold. OAs can get up to 10-fold in BTC at the end. So you can make up to 100 fold in a good hype if you hold OAs!
Occurance: Mar/Apr 2013, November 2013, probably next month

3. Crash Phase
Bitcoin is dropping about 2/3. OAs are dropping even more. So its better to be not too much in Altcoins in this period. After the crash the OAs have about the same BTC trade rate as before the hype.
Occurance: Apr - Jun 2013, Dez 2013 - Mar 2014

4. Normalization Phase
BTC prices are rebounding and get maybe stable over a certain amount of time. OAs are also relativly stable.
Occurances: Aug/Sep 2013, May 2014

I hope you like it. If so, feel free to tip on the BTC address in my profile.
Lordoliver

Why do you believe that the hype phase is going to come next month? Just because it's been long enough, or is something going to happen?

[lordoliver]

Why do you believe that the hype phase is going to come next month? Just because it's been long enough, or is something going to happen?

mostly because of the cycle length. but as bitcoin also goes on stock market this will also give a direction...

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Why do you believe that the hype phase is going to come next month? Just because it's been long enough, or is something going to happen?

mostly because of the cycle length. but as bitcoin also goes on stock market this will also give a direction...

Your estimation of the length of the cycle seems to be based on just one cycle - is that correct?

[lordoliver]

Why do you believe that the hype phase is going to come next month? Just because it's been long enough, or is something going to happen?

mostly because of the cycle length. but as bitcoin also goes on stock market this will also give a direction...

Your estimation of the length of the cycle seems to be based on just one cycle - is that correct?

No. Its actually the 3rd cycle with altcoins now. And before there were no altcoins but you can see them in bitcoin alone.

[Nxtblg]

Interesting...except for time-length, that pattern is a lot like gold stocks during a gold bull market and after. First the seniors rise, then the juniors, then some of the bottom-tiers skyrocket. And when gold stumbles and tumbles, the seniors plummet, the juniors plunge and what happens in the bottom tier can be best described as "carnage." The last crack up in the bottom-tier penny golds, in 2011-12, was so bad that the Venture Stock Exchange actually had to bend the rules for financings: otherwise, quite a few exploration pennies would have ran out of capital and wound up dormant.

Interesting. How quickly do these gold stocks go down when the gold price goes down? Are we taking seconds, or minutes?

You can in a sense. The trouble is, the overall decline takes place over months and the aftereffects can linger on for a few years. I'm describing a full-fledged bear market.

But I can assure you: if something goes wrong for a specific gold company and the market finds out, the stock gets flattened in seconds or even more quickly. The lower-tier the company, the worse it gets flattened (as a general rule.) 

Do you think one could learn a lot about the bitcoin market from looking at the gold market in general?

Uhh...you'll learn something about trading in a volatile market, but that's all. I came into the crypto scene after several years of watching and even punting in the lower-tier gold pennies. So I'm a special case of someone relating this environment from my prior experience in a completely different sector. There's very little overlap between the ins and outs of P2P cryptography and trying to figure out if a certain hunk of raw land has pay rock several hundred metres underneath.

To be quite frank: with respect to trading, the better option is to learn here. In cryptos, there are no minimum commissions. In the stock market, there are. You can learn some life lessons you'll never forget by trading with only $100 in altcoin land. In the stock market - any part of it - the commission load is too high for anything less than four figures. So if you move to stocks, you'll have to put much more at risk to learn the same lessons and practice up your trading.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Why do you believe that the hype phase is going to come next month? Just because it's been long enough, or is something going to happen?

mostly because of the cycle length. but as bitcoin also goes on stock market this will also give a direction...

Your estimation of the length of the cycle seems to be based on just one cycle - is that correct?

No. Its actually the 3rd cycle with altcoins now. And before there were no altcoins but you can see them in bitcoin alone.

1 cycle or 3, statistical significance of any extrapolation based on so few examples would to be very modest . I agree with your general observation about change in sentiment, but impossible to predict next rally high point from such data.