FBI coins on the move!

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

I just want to know will they announce how many bidder before the auction??

They will let the winners of the auction know that they won on the 30th (3 days after the auction closes). The prices will likely be disclosed at this time as well.

[1714699072]

1714699072

[1714699072]

1714699072

[1714699072]

1714699072

[halfawake]

I'm guessing this must be why the price of bitcoin just decided to take a downward spiral.  It's good timing for me, at least if it keeps it up for a while, since I'm planning on buying pretty soon.

[JorgeStolfi]

I'm guessing this must be why the price of bitcoin just decided to take a downward spiral.  It's good timing for me, at least if it keeps it up for a while, since I'm planning on buying pretty soon.

Perhaps, or perhaps it was the GHash.io scare.  But I do not find either explanation convincing.

To understand why the price is falling we would need to understand first why it rose from 450$ (Apr/25--May/20)  to 650$, since this fall is only starting to undo that rise.  That explanation had better explain also why the price rose in a few discrete jumps, due to large concentrated buys, rather than in a steady ramp with broad market support.  Pseudo-explanations like "bitcoin is like that" or TA astrology will not help of course.

As far as I can tell, the rise (like almost all the major moves since October) was generated and powered by the Chinese market, and copied to the "West" by arbitrage.  The spurts could be explained by a few big traders getting inside information of some imminent development with expected positive impact on the Chinese market, such as opening of offshore branches of Huobi and OKCoin, trading in offshore yuan (CNH).

If that is the case, the cause for the current drop should be sought in China too.  Neither the FBI auction nor GHash.io thing could have much impact there.

Anyone who was minimally familiar with how the US government deals with seized property, and had some feeling for the way civil servants think, would have guessed that the sale of the SilkRoad coins would happen, and could tell exactly how it would happen: by public auction, in lots, to the highest bidder, at whatever price he offered.  And indeed several people predicted that in this forum.  There was absolutely no chance that the FBI would sell the seized coins through private deals or on the exchanges, or would try to keep them.  (The US government has no more motivation to own bitcoins than it has to own Apple stock or gold-plated Rolls Royces.) So, their sale must have been "priced in" for months.  Moreover, the amount is not large compared to other bitcoin hoards that could be dumped (it is less than 8 days worth of the miners'  output). 

The GHash.io thing is an obscure technical issue that, per se, does not threaten bitcoin immediately.  (It is far less worrisome, IMHO, than the recent developments at the Shrem Karpeles & Friends Foundation, also known as the Bitcoin Foundation; or than restrictive regulations that large nations might easily pass; or than several other threats.)  I cannot imagine the Chinese traders being impressed by it.

My best guess is that some of those same Chinese insiders who caused the recent rise just got tired of waiting for the expected event, or started doubting the news.  Or other Chinese whales became pessimistic about the solidity of the rise, and decided to dump.

[JorgeStolfi]

PS. THIS seems to be a good explanation for the current drop:

CoinDesk, 2014-06-14
Chinese Payments Association Wants Banks to Identify, Eliminate Bitcoin Activity
http://www.coindesk.com/chinese-payments-association-wants-banks-identify-eliminate-bitcoin-activity/

[BombaUcigasa]

PS. THIS seems to be a good explanation for the current drop:

CoinDesk, 2014-06-14
Chinese Payments Association Wants Banks to Identify, Eliminate Bitcoin Activity
http://www.coindesk.com/chinese-payments-association-wants-banks-identify-eliminate-bitcoin-activity/

¿Por qué no los tres?

[Dr. Pepper]

I wonder if any famous people or entities will be bidding for them? Maybe the Winklevii?

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

I'm guessing this must be why the price of bitcoin just decided to take a downward spiral.  It's good timing for me, at least if it keeps it up for a while, since I'm planning on buying pretty soon.

Perhaps, or perhaps it was the GHash.io scare.  But I do not find either explanation convincing.

I would argue that since the market can see that there will be a large influx of supply of coins in the near future people are anticipating a future drop in price.

When a large institutional investor is planning on selling their stock in a particular company they do not make an announcement because people would trade ahead of them causing the price of that stock to fall before they sell. 

[TheTruth4]

Did the FBI move DPR's coins from his address to one under their control? or did they just protect the private key and leave them alone?

[DannyHamilton]

Did the FBI move DPR's coins from his address to one under their control? or did they just protect the private key and leave them alone?

They moved them.

[BombaUcigasa]

Did the FBI move DPR's coins from his address to one under their control? or did they just protect the private key and leave them alone?

They moved them.

Twice.

[Justin00]

Maybe Pirate is buying them back.... you know.. to pay back investors...
lol sorry... to soon ?

[ChiliPowder]

The sell off is def going to hurt the price, just them announcing it made price drop.

[Justin00]

you'd hope they do it slowly..
be kinda retarded to sell 1000000 of them at once...
but who knows who it is... if they can affiird ut they obviously a smart person... considering there probs rich as fark.

The sell off is def going to hurt the price, just them announcing it made price drop.

[Harley997]

The sell off is def going to hurt the price, just them announcing it made price drop.

The price will likely drop in anticipation of the auction, but will rebound (over the long term) due to the massive value of Bitcoin

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

you'd hope they do it slowly..
be kinda retarded to sell 1000000 of them at once...
but who knows who it is... if they can affiird ut they obviously a smart person... considering there probs rich as fark.

The sell off is def going to hurt the price, just them announcing it made price drop.

The law says that they have to sell them all at once

[Ikaros]

What law?

[tidda]

324 = FBI on a keypad. Posturing, or some FBI nerd having a laugh

[halfawake]

you'd hope they do it slowly..
be kinda retarded to sell 1000000 of them at once...
but who knows who it is... if they can affiird ut they obviously a smart person... considering there probs rich as fark.

The sell off is def going to hurt the price, just them announcing it made price drop.

Yes, it's going to hurt the price.  It's actually probably already priced in, since they announced it publicly.  The fortunate thing for bitcoiners is that they're selling them privately, off an exchange.  So unless whoever buys them decides to turn around and resell them immediately, it probably won't affect the price of bitcoins any more than it already has, which, as far as bitcoin price drops goes, isn't that bad, especially considering that it's already recovered somewhat. 

Granted, JorgeStolfi had an excellent point in his reply to my post that it's likely more than just this one thing at work here.  This is likely part of it, but there are probably several factors at work with the drop in price.

[Harley997]

you'd hope they do it slowly..
be kinda retarded to sell 1000000 of them at once...
but who knows who it is... if they can affiird ut they obviously a smart person... considering there probs rich as fark.

The sell off is def going to hurt the price, just them announcing it made price drop.

Yes, it's going to hurt the price.  It's actually probably already priced in, since they announced it publicly.  The fortunate thing for bitcoiners is that they're selling them privately, off an exchange.  So unless whoever buys them decides to turn around and resell them immediately, it probably won't affect the price of bitcoins any more than it already has, which, as far as bitcoin price drops goes, isn't that bad, especially considering that it's already recovered somewhat. 

Granted, JorgeStolfi had an excellent point in his reply to my post that it's likely more than just this one thing at work here.  This is likely part of it, but there are probably several factors at work with the drop in price.

I think over the short term the price of bitcoin will fall a little bit further in anticipation on the sale, and depending on who buys via the auction it may fall after that (if people wish to try to arbitrage the price) but long term the price will recover and rise above where it was as more businesses start to accept bitcoin and more consumers start to use bitcoin