US Marshalls auction SilkRoad bitcoins

[Parazyd]

People definitely won't get cheap coins this way. It's an auction, they'll probably end up paying more than they would on Bitstamp or another exchange.

[jjc326]

I guess it will be a private sale.  That is actually REASSURING to me regarding the price because it means they won't just be all dumped at once at an exchange.  But I do think the bigger investors will look at the price and try to extrapolate it to the exchanges.  In other words if the auction goes for way less than $600/btc then the exchange price will drop.

[Parazyd]

I guess it will be a private sale.  That is actually REASSURING to me regarding the price because it means they won't just be all dumped at once at an exchange.  But I do think the bigger investors will look at the price and try to extrapolate it to the exchanges.  In other words if the auction goes for way less than $600/btc then the exchange price will drop.

I'm sure it won't go below the market price. If anything, it will go above.
That said, the coins won't be dumped unless there's some profit to it.

[BurtW]

Wish I could get in on this action.  

Alas I don't have the minimum $200,000 to place a bid.  

$200,000 is just the deposit in order to be able to bid.  You will be bidding on a lot of 3,000 BTC so you will need somewhere between one and two million dollars cash (333 USD/BTC to 666 USD/BTC) in order to participate and have a chance of winning one of the 10 blocks of 3,000 BTC.

[juju]

I can't take credit for this because I believe it was Danny_Hamilton who said it, but the entirety of the Silkroad coins that were seized 120k+ is ~ what is generated by the blockchain in 48 days. I wouldn't expect this to have an enormous impact on the exchange price. Unless someone ends up buying the coins for insanely cheap, which won't happen their will be competition for them.

[EvilPanda]

I guess it will be a private sale.  That is actually REASSURING to me regarding the price because it means they won't just be all dumped at once at an exchange.  But I do think the bigger investors will look at the price and try to extrapolate it to the exchanges.  In other words if the auction goes for way less than $600/btc then the exchange price will drop.

I'm sure it won't go below the market price. If anything, it will go above.
That said, the coins won't be dumped unless there's some profit to it.

That's right. It's just money changing owners, this happens every day and doesn't affect the market. Even if somebody wanted to sell I doubt he'd just pick an exchange and drop everything in 1 day. He'd just lose the money.

[Mikez]

I can't take credit for this because I believe it was Danny_Hamilton who said it, but the entirety of the Silkroad coins that were seized 120k+ is ~ what is generated by the blockchain in 48 days. I wouldn't expect this to have an enormous impact on the exchange price. Unless someone ends up buying the coins for insanely cheap, which won't happen their will be competition for them.

Around ~172800BTC are generated in 48 days, with the current reward per block. It's a bit mind boggling...
On the topic of the auctioning, I'm glad that at least their not dumping it all at once. Guess they realised that it might be counter-productive for them to do that.

[ChuckBuck]

Wish I could get in on this action.  

Alas I don't have the minimum $200,000 to place a bid.  

$200,000 is just the deposit in order to be able to bid.  You will be bidding on a lot of 3,000 BTC so you will need somewhere between one and two million dollars cash (333 USD/BTC to 666 USD/BTC) in order to participate and have a chance of winning one of the 10 blocks of 3,000 BTC.

Yea I figured that $200k just gets you in the door.

That's why I'm sad, because I'm not rich...    

[Eotnak]

they will go near market value, above or below, that depends on the demand.  The fact is that if you try buying or selling this huge amount, you drive the price up or down respectively.  If you tried buying this amount of BTC on the open market at once, you'd end up paying thousands and thousands on average per BTC.

So think about if folks, these auctions will have no effect on the market, stop biting your fingernails these auctions happen all the time for all kinds of things.  No one is dumping anything.

[TopherB]

Interesting to think how this will affect bitcoin prices
On the open market.

First instinct is to say OMG they are making huge sells.
Second thought is, it's  a private sale, and will be met with a private buy.
It won't touch the open market.

On the other hand, investors that buy their coins
from the FBI arguably would have done so on the open
market and driven price up more, so we'd miss that...

...but... Then again, buyers may get a discount because
buying these coins are a big pain and less anonymous,
So may attract additional dollars into bitcoin.  Also it
may generate press and more investors.

overall, I'm not expecting any huge price moves when
The auction takes place.  

The news drives the price down as investors - like me - sell in anticipation of the price dropping (self fulfilling prophecy) and when the sell off slows we buy back in and the price returns to normal or slightly higher. Same old same old.

[BetMoose]

Sukrim set up an interesting contract last night about the auction and pricing of the 'Blocks':

If the price of 3000 times the "high" column of https://api.bitcoinaverage.com/history/USD/per_day_all_time_history.csv on the 2014-06-27 line is higher than the price for the most expensive "Series A" block of BTC auctioned, this bet is considered "YES", if the price paid for the block is exactly the same or lower than on the open market, it will be a "NO".

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/silkroad-coins-will-be-sold-above-market-value

[NEM minnow]

I wouldn't be surprised if they go for higher than market and that if one person is able to get multiple blocks.  There are a lot of rich people that could put down a couple million and not even think about it.  This is a perfect chance for big money to come into bitcoin. 

[311]

I'm not looking forward to what happens to the price after this auction. Look what happened just on the announcement.

[TopherB]

I'm not looking forward to what happens to the price after this auction. Look what happened just on the announcement.

After the auction, and something that can be touted as a resolution on 51% hashrate, the price will rally back over $600. I'm betting - literally - that the floor will be around $475.

[1986]

The price probably all depends on how much they go for and what the person does with them. If he dumps them we could see trouble.

[TopherB]

The price probably all depends on how much they go for and what the person does with them. If he dumps them we could see trouble.

Buying and dumping makes no sense as he is selling such an amount that he is driving down the price as he sells and so will get much less than he paid. Unless 'his' plan is to drive down the price and then buy back in from the panicking "dumb money" and in the end driving the price back up. If that's the plan I'm all for it. I'll end up with more bitcoin (buying low) and the bitcoin will be stronger for having appeared to weather another storm.

[JorgeStolfi]

My guess is that the auction will close quite a bit below market price. That seems to be the rule for government auctions in general.

It is unlikely that it will close above market price, because one can buy 3000 coins on the open market with a bit of patience.

Plus if the current downtrend/volatility continues until the auction, it would be very risky to buy such lots at or above market price.

Large investors who may need (say) 12'000 coins for some startup probably already have bulk sources, that sell at or below market price (e.g. miners), so they probably would not be interested in paying more at the auction.

Probably some of the lots will be bought by speculators who will then try to sell them on the open market, gradually.

[yatsey87]

The price probably all depends on how much they go for and what the person does with them. If he dumps them we could see trouble.

Buying and dumping makes no sense as he is selling such an amount that he is driving down the price as he sells and so will get much less than he paid. Unless 'his' plan is to drive down the price and then buy back in from the panicking "dumb money" and in the end driving the price back up. If that's the plan I'm all for it. I'll end up with more bitcoin (buying low) and the bitcoin will be stronger for having appeared to weather another storm.

Maybe the winner bidder wont have any idea what he's doing? I'm sure whoever wins them though will probably be keeping them as an investment. It'd be hard to sell many of them straight away as the price will go down.

[Specialkey]

Has this do s.th. with the dropping BTC price atm?

[QuestionAuthority]

I wonder if anyone will actually bid on them.