Are we still on for July?

[Raystonn]

I remember reading tons of posts for good news in July (not ATH, but relatively high). Do you guys think its still on, or will August or September be a better time frame. (Not ATH but like 700-900 or so).

Thoughts appreciated.

With the news that U.S. Government will sell 30.000 Bitcoin, all of good news doesn't have any sense.

Nobody can know if the price will move on or drop, but I'm confident that price will rise by August

OMG, I can't read it any more...
look at the btc traffic. 30k is NOTHING:

24h global trading volume
฿ 112,274.63

Even if it was 3 million coins, the buyer wouldn't drop them on the market for at least a year due to recent IRS guidance.  You must hold for a year to classify as a long term capital gains and avoid a great deal of extra taxes.

[jubalix]

I remember reading tons of posts for good news in July (not ATH, but relatively high). Do you guys think its still on, or will August or September be a better time frame. (Not ATH but like 700-900 or so).

Thoughts appreciated.

With the news that U.S. Government will sell 30.000 Bitcoin, all of good news doesn't have any sense.

Nobody can know if the price will move on or drop, but I'm confident that price will rise by August

OMG, I can't read it any more...
look at the btc traffic. 30k is NOTHING:

24h global trading volume
฿ 112,274.63

Even if it was 3 million coins, the buyer wouldn't drop them on the market for at least a year due to recent IRS guidance.  You must hold for a year to classify as a long term capital gains and avoid a great deal of extra taxes.

IRS .NE. WORLD

IRS means nothing to most people as most people are not in the US jurisdiction

[Raystonn]

The buyer of these coins will be.

[okthen]

The U.S. government selling BTC is extremely bullish IMO.

Just like the Silk Road bust preceded a bubble, the sale of the SR coins will precede this coming bubble. 

Was going to write this.
If the coins are bought by the right people, it might increase credibility as hell. And thus be 2014's Silk road event.

[segeln]

Even if it was 3 million coins, the buyer wouldn't drop them on the market for at least a year due to recent IRS guidance.  You must hold for a year to classify as a long term capital gains and avoid a great deal of extra taxes.

good and valid point

[maker88]

This poorly print-screened chart shows where BTC crashed to $85 from ~$127 due to Silkroad being shutdown.... this was right before the last bubble.

this was what i was looking at when i bought more at 550, i lived this last year and bought into it and rode the bubble half way up before i panicked and sold too soon. 400% isn't enough for me lol so I'm waiting for a big move this summer.

[fr33d0miz3r]

I remember reading tons of posts for good news in July (not ATH, but relatively high). Do you guys think its still on, or will August or September be a better time frame. (Not ATH but like 700-900 or so).

Dear bagholder, sell while you can. We won't see 700-900 in the next 3-5 years.

[Gimmelfarb]

I remember reading tons of posts for good news in July (not ATH, but relatively high). Do you guys think its still on, or will August or September be a better time frame. (Not ATH but like 700-900 or so).

Dear bagholder, sell while you can. We won't see 700-900 in the next 3-5 years.

3-5 years? even if we never make a new ATH again, we'll surely see $700s. personally, i expect another leg down into support levels at $520-530 (Stamp), which is a moving support for the rally off $440s at this time. pretty sure we'll make it past $700, $800 is iffy though.

[Arghhh]

There's still another black swan event coming up: Bitlicense.
http://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-taking-bitcoin-exchange-applications-2014-3

"Lawsky also said the state will issue a final regulatory framework for digital currency businesses no later than Q2 of 2014."

[Raystonn]

There's still another black swan event coming up: Bitlicense.
http://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-taking-bitcoin-exchange-applications-2014-3

"Lawsky also said the state will issue a final regulatory framework for digital currency businesses no later than Q2 of 2014."

On the contrary, that would result in a huge influx of capital into Bitcoin.  That's the opposite of black swan.  For those who'd rather stay on the down low, you always have the option of using exchanges outside the U.S.

[Gianluca95]

I remember reading tons of posts for good news in July (not ATH, but relatively high). Do you guys think its still on, or will August or September be a better time frame. (Not ATH but like 700-900 or so).

Thoughts appreciated.

With the news that U.S. Government will sell 30.000 Bitcoin, all of good news doesn't have any sense.

Nobody can know if the price will move on or drop, but I'm confident that price will rise by August

It shouldn't affect the price that mutch, they won't be dumping them on exhcanges but it probably will as traders are panicking as always.

I hope that will be like you told but I'm so much worried for this question, because an investor can manipulate market with that 30.000 BTC without problem !

[Mythul]

At leas profesor Bitcorn failed with his prediction. I'm happy just with that.

[Little P 1]

At the risk of having my head cut off I will give my 2 cents.

Short term

(Obvious stuff first)

First the sale of the BTC by the American Government is ,in the short term, a bad thing for the price of BTC. Only Americans ( i did send an email checking and they replied to me) with American bank accounts can purchase a block.

(They will be selling far below market value not at market value- unless they get sufficient demand * see short term upside)

Second The Government for whatever reason wants to sell cheap. I can if i want buy a bently from American auction but not these bitcoin. They have closed their buyers to just people from the US I don't know all the other rules and regulations however that already means they will not be getting anything near market price for their sale.  

Scenario 1 (realistic - short term)

downside

So they will certainly not be getting anything near market price.  If you are American i advise you group together and try and make a bid you may be able to buy at 50-300 usd per coin. Any buyer with sense would be bidding at very low prices potentially even colluding to make sure that they all get to buy at low prices. The market for buyers with big pockets is small and most of them know each other well.

upside

29k is actually not that many coins so we will see if the market impact forces the market to drop below $550 but fear is a powerful thing. All in all it should allow some new wealthy individuals to pile into the market. It all comes down to who buys. In the case they are over subscribed the price will not really fall that much or even be purchased at a premium. This is after all a way to buy a large block of coins from the government.

(Maby  - short term)

It's likely the buyers will push the market down before bidding and if they have more then 200k to deposit then it won't be hard to do so

It is also possible that they have huge amounts of demand and end up with buyers who buy at market price or above...>.> buyers that get caught up in a bidding war.

Finally on the upside the type of auction is important from what I saw they do not have to sell at all meaning that the price may not fall as much as people are thinking.

(very unlikely - short term)

If each block was dumped on each exchange at the same time what do you think would happen to prices ?


In the short term these buyers will want a profit one of the easiest ways to make a profit is to sell back to the market hence they could (depending on how they sell) push the market down in the short run. There are lots of ways they could sell without having much market impact buy its unlikely that would bother them.  We think prices will feel safe around $550 and then break lower if any movement actually happens or fear increases closer to auction date. They key will be to have eyes on the auction.

(sellers on the side lines -short term)

You also have to keep in mind there are other people who ...suddenly found themselves in large amounts of BTC (if you get my drift) who generally sell chunks around the $600 mark every few weeks i have been watching them with interest. They often move with fat / pinky fingers but sel periodically large chunks across multiple markets simultaneously. If they think there is going to be more downward pressure they may decide to cash out large amounts in advanced.

Scenario 2 ( Maby - Long term)
It could also potentially be long term investors buying large blocks who want to hold for the long term and take only small short term profit on their position. >.>

Or the buyers set a pre amount they want to sell and then hold the rest longer term.  (likely)

Long term

This is a good thing because then the crypto is out of government hands and back in the market it can find its way back into building the crypto infrastructure.

I also think this auction is a giant stamp of approval for the asset class new investor in the market often perceive that if the government is selling it then it must be good. I will certainly be using this example in my sales pitches from now on.

Companies like mine are getting set up and trying to move into the market and can only end up lifting up the price as we bring more investors in. So actually a falling price is good for us in the short/medium run as it gives more scope for growth.

This sale could also lead to an all new price rally.


Conclusion if you are a long term investors It makes sense to prepare for some volatility both ways. While not advise you could set some very low bid offers on exchanges say around$500 $450-$400 usd you would be surprised how fast the market can fall you might be able to catch it going down. Often an unrealistic  bid of 60% bmv ends up getting filled when a fat finger enters the market.  It's just about being patient.

That was just my 2 cents I wish you the best of luck with your holdings and your investments.

Kr,

Malcolm O
Cryptovest FS

[zimmah]

This poorly print-screened chart shows where BTC crashed to $85 from ~$127 due to Silkroad being shutdown.... this was right before the last bubble.

exactly, the crash to $550 might be the last crash before the next bubble

I remember reading tons of posts for good news in July (not ATH, but relatively high). Do you guys think its still on, or will August or September be a better time frame. (Not ATH but like 700-900 or so).

Dear bagholder, sell while you can. We won't see 700-900 in the next 3-5 years.

wanna bet?

[Hyena]

Fact is, people are stupid. They can't think for themselves and they are cowards. This is why any swimming against the main stream will get you angry expressions such as you shouldn't break the rules and no one has ever done that!

However, these machine-obedient people hunger for the success stories of famous people and millionaires in hope of imitating them or discovering some magical key to success. Why do people give a shit what drugs Jobs and Gates did in past? I sure don't but there are many of us who devour such information with lust. The bottom line is that these sheep are waiting for some famous organization, innovator, public idol or millionaire to praise the shit out of Bitcoin.

When that happens, shit will officially hit the fan. It can very well be the next and final major event in the history of bitcoin bubbles.

[Este Nuno]

The sale is a massive validation of Bitcoins fungibility and legality.

Why don't they keep it, so they own a stake in bitcoin for the foreseeable future? (or sell during the next few run ups)

There is no 'they' in this case. I can't think of any part of the government that actively speculates for profit. Who would have the authority to authorize them to hold the coins? And what department would spend them and when?

I think the US could have bitcoin reserves at some point way in the future, but I don't think they would come from seized coins.

[Elwar]

The Silk Road bust took an otherwise stable price and shook things up. This brought both attention and lack of price range.

This freed the price to skyrocket since nobody knew what the price should be. With the influx of new attention and money apparently the price point was very high.

This time the price has not been all that stable so I don't see this as triggering anything too huge. But I do believe the price point is an unknown.