Why bitcoin supply will NOT cap at 21M BTC [NOT PLAUSIBLE]

[brenzi]

What happens if Bitcoin market cap reaches a globally significant level? In the following I'll try to sketch why it will be in the interest of the bitcoin community to hard fork to a different supply scheme and sacrifice bitcoin's original philosophy.

Assumptions for such a fictive day in the future:

• Bitcoin becomes widely adopted for legal commerce and its market cap reaches an economically significant level.
• the bitcoin community has become ideology-free due to mass-adoption
• bitcoin holders and miners act rationally and purely out of self-interest

Consequences:

Central banks will loose power due to the unregulated cryptocurrency and they will not like that (And I don't want to discuss if they are right or wrong here.)

Governments will not like the fact that their central banks can't control money supply anymore and will therefore regulate the use of cryptocurrencies. Most probably they will forbid all companies to accept bitcoin.
(And do not think that such a ban would only be imposed by "evil governments". Such a decision could very well be made with democratic legitimacy.)

In the best case they will allow the use of cryptocurrencies under the condition that a central bank controls their money supply.
edit: This assumption is not plausible. Gov. has no reason to leave mining decentralized

So the bitcoin community will face a choice:

• Stick to the fixed supply model and get banned from legal commerce. This would destroy BTC value and bitcoiners would lose a lot of money (or more precisely: wealth) within short time.
• Accept regulation of money supply by a central bank and hard fork to a centralized money supply algorithm. This would prevent a price crash for BTC as the currency could survive as a legal means of payment

As I assume rational behaviour of at least 51% of the miners, the choice is obvious. The loss is smaller in the second case. The 21M money supply cap will fall.

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[revilo]

Whatever.. I think you're on the wrong forum.

[jeffthebaker]

Didn't china ban bitcoin like 4 times?

Even if the government tries to regulate it, how effective will it be?

[brenzi]

Didn't china ban bitcoin like 4 times?

Even if the government tries to regulate it, how effective will it be?

I wouldn't call today's market cap "significant". How many real things have you bought with BTC so far? As long as Bitcoin is pure speculation the government probably can't do a lot about it (and doesn't care too much). But as soon as it is used for daily purchase by many people a ban makes a major difference.

[beatljuice]

Sorry, but you're wrong. If we want to expand the crystallographic money supply we don't have to fork Bitcoin, that's already been done with alt-coins.

And I'm quite sure that few countries will try to ban it, and almost none of them will be successful. It's harder than banning the internet and that hasn't ever worked.

[odolvlobo]

What happens if Bitcoin market cap reaches a globally significant level? In the following I'll try to sketch why it will be in the interest of the bitcoin community to hard fork to a different supply scheme and sacrifice bitcoin's original philosophy.

I encourage you to start an alt coin that has the characteristics that you believe are necessary for success. Then when Bitcoin fails, your coin will be there.

[revilo]

Didn't china ban bitcoin like 4 times?

Even if the government tries to regulate it, how effective will it be?

I wouldn't call today's market cap "significant". How many real things have you bought with BTC so far? As long as Bitcoin is pure speculation the government probably can't do a lot about it (and doesn't care too much). But as soon as it is used for daily purchase by many people a ban makes a major difference.

I get takeaways form takeaway.com and pay with bitcoin
I buy and sell stuff for bitcoins on uk.webuy.com
I buy vouchers for high street stores and amazon.com from pock.io
I'm now gonna book hotels any pay with bitcoin!

Bitcoin for everyday stuff

[brenzi]

Sorry, but you're wrong. If we want to expand the crystallographic money supply we don't have to fork Bitcoin, that's already been done with alt-coins.

And I'm quite sure that few countries will try to ban it, and almost none of them will be successful. It's harder than banning the internet and that hasn't ever worked.

Banning bitcoin technology is close to impossible, I agree. But prohibiting the acceptance of cryptocurrencies for shops is a very easy task. You just state that it is prohibited and its done (on national level. But that's enough to seriously affect the usefulness and value of BTC)

And for the altcoins: Decentralized is a contradiction to central bank controlled. So its not done by altcoins today. But I agree that there is an additional scenario: The governments will issue their own cryptocurrencies and prohibit all others that are not state-controlled.

[polynesia]

Would anybody trust Citibank-coins over bitcoins?

https://www.getbitcoin.com.au/bitcoin-news/citibank-central-bankers-miss-point-bitcoin

The Citibank report says that the technology behind Bitcoin might be better utilised if it were in fiat currency, such as US dollars or euros.

[Erdogan]

OP: No. There's an altcoin for that.

[BurtW]

What happens if Bitcoin market cap reaches a globally significant level? In the following I'll try to sketch why it will be in the interest of the bitcoin community to hard fork to a different supply scheme and sacrifice bitcoin's original philosophy.

I encourage you to start an alt coin that has the characteristics that you believe are necessary for success. Then when Bitcoin fails, your coin will be there.

Creating an alt coin is not good enough because I would lose all my Bitcoin wealth.

OP:  I agree with you.  This is one of the biggest concerns we face and it keeps me up at night.  

Please, so that I can get some sleep, please, please hard fork the chain as soon as you possibly can and change Bitcoin as you described so that it won't get banned.

Thanks!  

[brenzi]

Please, so that I can get some sleep, please, please hard fork the chain as soon as you possibly can and change Bitcoin as you described so that it won't get banned.

This wouldn't be my suggestion. Governments around the world are just starting to learn about bitcoin. As long as there are very basic misconceptions and contradictory regulations I see no reason to act.
Moreover, those governments would first need to agree on who should be given the power over BTC money supply. I hope it will not be the fed but an international entity (with a UN mandate?).

So waiting is not a healthy option for you. If you want to sleep better: sell! 

[BurtW]

The point is that you can try to fork the blockchain now - which will totally fail, or you can wait until the powers that be try to fork the blockchain in the future - which will also totally fail.

Really makes no difference to me or anyone who will continue to use Bitcoins and will never be converted over to a psuedo Bitcoin that you describe.

Except:  after you or the powers that be fork the chain to create their FiatCoin or UnCoins whatever they call it I will sell all my FiatCoins given to me by the forking process and convert them to real Bitcoins.

In fact I will sell them to you if you want them.

I really like "UnCoins" for these UN controlled coins.  Please call them that!

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

Please, so that I can get some sleep, please, please hard fork the chain as soon as you possibly can and change Bitcoin as you described so that it won't get banned.

This wouldn't be my suggestion. Governments around the world are just starting to learn about bitcoin. As long as there are very basic misconceptions and contradictory regulations I see no reason to act.
Moreover, those governments would first need to agree on who should be given the power over BTC money supply. I hope it will not be the fed but an international entity (with a UN mandate?).

So waiting is not a healthy option for you. If you want to sleep better: sell! 

No government would be able to control the BTC money supply. To have that level of control would be like controlling the internet.

[Bit_Happy]

What happens if Bitcoin market cap reaches a globally significant level? In the following I'll try to sketch why it will be in the interest of the bitcoin community to hard fork to a different supply scheme and sacrifice bitcoin's original philosophy.

Assumptions for such a fictive day in the future:

• Bitcoin becomes widely adopted for legal commerce and its market cap reaches an economically significant level.
• the bitcoin community has become ideology-free due to mass-adoption
• bitcoin holders and miners act rationally and purely out of self-interest

Consequences:

Central banks will loose power due to the unregulated cryptocurrency and they will not like that (And I don't want to discuss if they are right or wrong here.)

Governments will not like the fact that their central banks can't control money supply anymore and will therefore regulate the use of cryptocurrencies. Most probably they will forbid all companies to accept bitcoin.
(And do not think that such a ban would only be imposed by "evil governments". Such a decision could very well be made with democratic legitimacy.)

In the best case they will allow the use of cryptocurrencies under the condition that a central bank controls their money supply.

So the bitcoin community will face a choice:

• Stick to the fixed supply model and get banned from legal commerce. This would destroy BTC value and bitcoiners would loose a lot of money (or more precisely: wealth) within short time.
• Accept regulation of money supply by a central bank and hard fork to a centralized money supply algorithm. This would prevent a price crash for BTC as the currency could survive as a legal means of payment

As I assume rational behaviour of at least 51% of the miners, the choice is obvious. The loss is smaller in the second case. The 21M money supply cap will fall.

I would like to believe that a majority of newbies can easily be taught how important the controlled supply is for BTC to succeed.
For the next few years we are safe, and after that only time will tell.

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

What happens if Bitcoin market cap reaches a globally significant level? In the following I'll try to sketch why it will be in the interest of the bitcoin community to hard fork to a different supply scheme and sacrifice bitcoin's original philosophy.

Assumptions for such a fictive day in the future:

• Bitcoin becomes widely adopted for legal commerce and its market cap reaches an economically significant level.
• the bitcoin community has become ideology-free due to mass-adoption
• bitcoin holders and miners act rationally and purely out of self-interest

Consequences:

Central banks will loose power due to the unregulated cryptocurrency and they will not like that (And I don't want to discuss if they are right or wrong here.)

Governments will not like the fact that their central banks can't control money supply anymore and will therefore regulate the use of cryptocurrencies. Most probably they will forbid all companies to accept bitcoin.
(And do not think that such a ban would only be imposed by "evil governments". Such a decision could very well be made with democratic legitimacy.)

In the best case they will allow the use of cryptocurrencies under the condition that a central bank controls their money supply.

So the bitcoin community will face a choice:

• Stick to the fixed supply model and get banned from legal commerce. This would destroy BTC value and bitcoiners would loose a lot of money (or more precisely: wealth) within short time.
• Accept regulation of money supply by a central bank and hard fork to a centralized money supply algorithm. This would prevent a price crash for BTC as the currency could survive as a legal means of payment

As I assume rational behaviour of at least 51% of the miners, the choice is obvious. The loss is smaller in the second case. The 21M money supply cap will fall.

I would like to believe that a majority of newbies can easily be taught how important the controlled supply is for BTC to succeed.
For the next few years we are safe, and after that only time will tell.

I think this person was trying to say that bitcoin would be so widely adopted that it would almost completely replace fiat currency. Central banks would not be able to control interest rates and inflation (printing money). As a result the government would force Bitcoin to become somewhat inflationary via a change in the Bitcoin code. if the code was not changed then the government would regulate it to death.

This is not what I think will/should happen but what the above person was trying to get across.

[Lethn]

Government loyalists can threaten all they like, I have made copies of some of the early versions of the source code just in case they try anything as I'm sure other people have, they will not win.

[alexeft]

Government loyalists can threaten all they like, I have made copies of some of the early versions of the source code just in case they try anything as I'm sure other people have, they will not win.

Hahahaha!!! Good one!!! 

[alexeft]

What happens if Bitcoin market cap reaches a globally significant level? In the following I'll try to sketch why it will be in the interest of the bitcoin community to hard fork to a different supply scheme and sacrifice bitcoin's original philosophy.

Assumptions for such a fictive day in the future:

• Bitcoin becomes widely adopted for legal commerce and its market cap reaches an economically significant level.
• the bitcoin community has become ideology-free due to mass-adoption
• bitcoin holders and miners act rationally and purely out of self-interest

Consequences:

Central banks will loose power due to the unregulated cryptocurrency and they will not like that (And I don't want to discuss if they are right or wrong here.)

Governments will not like the fact that their central banks can't control money supply anymore and will therefore regulate the use of cryptocurrencies. Most probably they will forbid all companies to accept bitcoin.
(And do not think that such a ban would only be imposed by "evil governments". Such a decision could very well be made with democratic legitimacy.)

In the best case they will allow the use of cryptocurrencies under the condition that a central bank controls their money supply.

So the bitcoin community will face a choice:

• Stick to the fixed supply model and get banned from legal commerce. This would destroy BTC value and bitcoiners would loose a lot of money (or more precisely: wealth) within short time.
• Accept regulation of money supply by a central bank and hard fork to a centralized money supply algorithm. This would prevent a price crash for BTC as the currency could survive as a legal means of payment

As I assume rational behaviour of at least 51% of the miners, the choice is obvious. The loss is smaller in the second case. The 21M money supply cap will fall.

Whoever dislikes bitcoin can create their own altcoin and go on from there if they like the technology!!! 

[brenzi]

No government would be able to control the BTC money supply. To have that level of control would be like controlling the internet.

Government doesn't need to control Bitcoin on the technological level. That's exactly my point. All the govmt needs to do is make sure BTC holders have more wealth when forking to altered bitcoin sources and giving up decentralization. No majority will reject personal benefit (or the smaller loss) just for ideology.