What's your percent chance that Bitcoin will be the "Myspace" of cryptos?

[beetcoin]

bitcoin is not myspace, mainly because myspace was never as dominant as bitcoin. btc's infrastructure is way,  way more supported than myspace was.

[lemfuture]

51%

[RomertL]

... I know the Myspace analogy technically isn't that great of one. I'm speaking more in terms of Bitcoin being over-hyped and there potentially being a better successor to come along.

You have to understand the context of "better successor". Bitcoin was not an incremental improvement on prior attempts at digital cash. It was a large breakthrough in computer science (specifically solving global consensus; the "byzantine generals problem"). The problem stood unsolved for decades. The network-effect surrounding the solution to this problem as applied to digital money, as you can see with bitcoin's success, is huge.

Possible incremental improvements over the current implementation details of bitcoin are nowhere near interesting enough to unseat bitcoin's dominance. It's not proper to compare bitcoin to specific companies (FB, Myspace); a far better analogy is core internet protocols.

Bitcoin is the first viable protocol for trustless exchange of value. It's more analogous to things like SMTP or IP. Did improvements to those protocols exist? Of course... But when we're talking about things that are a large break from the past, "good enough" plus first usually wins over incompatible alternative approaches.

It's also worth noting that these protocols evolve and incorporate new ideas. Bitcoin has the same properties; if new ideas come along that are indeed very beneficial, it's likely they'll be incorporated into bitcoin.

For me to get worried about successors, I'd have to see fundamental new solutions to the problem of achieving trustless global consensus over an insecure network. No alt does that. And even if one did come along, I'm not sure quite how it would do it massively better. The fact is, bitcoin's consensus solution works, and that's all it takes to launch the virus of digital money.

Hear hear

[justusranvier]

The "Myspace" / "Facebook" analogy breaks down because of the economic concept of opportunity cost.

There is essentially nothing preventing a person from reaping as much utility as they're going to get out of both Myspace and Facebook simultaneously. Having a Myspace account in no way inhibited you from just going and signing up for Facebook when it became available. In fact it's probably the opposite, the kind of person that even cared about Myspace would also like Facebook.

With Bitcoin versus some unspecified future altcoin, there is a serious barrier. You don't have infinite money.

In addition to this, network effects are stronger for currencies than social networks.

Content on a social network depreciates rapidly. Currency does not (absent limitless issuance of more units).

[QuantumQrack]

Bitcoin:

Not anonymous, not even really pseudonymous.  More centralization year over year.  I am hopeful that something better can come along, or that programmers have the wherewithal to make it better instead of leaving it at status quo.

[jubalix]

a 100%  (or at least =>) BTC

secure
anon
and well distributed POS

would kill BTC as it would avoid the whole mining tax/drama which is like flying into the head wind.

Its sorta like figuring out flight, and BTC is about a 3rd generation Flyer. NXT is a prop plane ww1 but it has a tether attached to a crane, and the fuel supply is a bit suspect.

[BetMoose]

a 100%  (or at least =>) BTC

secure
anon
and well distributed POS

would kill BTC as it would avoid the whole mining tax/drama which is like flying into the head wind.

Its sorta like figuring out flight, and BTC is about a 3rd generation Flyer. NXT is a prop plane ww1 but it has a tether attached to a crane, and the fuel supply is a bit suspect.

Nothing will be truly anonymous since you still need to relay a connection to someone else via your IP. Or, it will be anonymous but then it won't be a public ledger or user-friendly enough to go mainstream...

[TaunSew]

It's not like Myspace died overnight - any early investor made bags of money off it and it was going up for practically 8 years. .

[beetcoin]

Bitcoin:

Not anonymous, not even really pseudonymous.  More centralization year over year.  I am hopeful that something better can come along, or that programmers have the wherewithal to make it better instead of leaving it at status quo.

that may be the case.. but i don't know how a new crypto is going to solve the issue of centralization. imo the only way a new cryptocurrency could supplant bitcoin is to provide it.

[jubalix]

a 100%  (or at least =>) BTC

secure
anon
and well distributed POS

would kill BTC as it would avoid the whole mining tax/drama which is like flying into the head wind.

Its sorta like figuring out flight, and BTC is about a 3rd generation Flyer. NXT is a prop plane ww1 but it has a tether attached to a crane, and the fuel supply is a bit suspect.

Nothing will be truly anonymous since you still need to relay a connection to someone else via your IP. Or, it will be anonymous but then it won't be a public ledger or user-friendly enough to go mainstream...

eh there will be technical solutions ot this.

[Harley997]

Bitcoin:

Not anonymous, not even really pseudonymous.  More centralization year over year.  I am hopeful that something better can come along, or that programmers have the wherewithal to make it better instead of leaving it at status quo.

that may be the case.. but i don't know how a new crypto is going to solve the issue of centralization. imo the only way a new cryptocurrency could supplant bitcoin is to provide it.

It solves the issue of centralization of not having the question of who controls/owns the coins be determined by a central authority

[zeetubes]

It's probably a better (but nowhere near perfect) analogy to compare bitcoin with linux than with myspace/facebook. Linux is sometimes clunky and inefficient and could have been replaced by something more sexy. But it's ubiquitous and people have invested serious time, love and money into it. Plus it's based on code that has been around for half a century.

[beetcoin]

Bitcoin:

Not anonymous, not even really pseudonymous.  More centralization year over year.  I am hopeful that something better can come along, or that programmers have the wherewithal to make it better instead of leaving it at status quo.

that may be the case.. but i don't know how a new crypto is going to solve the issue of centralization. imo the only way a new cryptocurrency could supplant bitcoin is to provide it.

It solves the issue of centralization of not having the question of who controls/owns the coins be determined by a central authority

and how does that get solved? because someone somewhere would have to provide hashing power for the blockchain.

[Melbustus]

Bitcoin:

Not anonymous, not even really pseudonymous.  More centralization year over year.  I am hopeful that something better can come along, or that programmers have the wherewithal to make it better instead of leaving it at status quo.

Be careful what you wish for. A completely anon coin (Zerocoin in theory?) would get aggressively attacked by governments. All govs have to do to keep a coin's use (and value) limited is to make it illegal for any *merchant* to accept it without aggressive KYC/AML. The openness of the bitcoin blockchain has played a large role in there not being aggressive anti-cryptocoin legislation. I suspect that once things like Zerocoin emerge and start to gain traction, we're going to see aggressive moves by regulatory bodies against such coins. Sidenote: that'll be bullish for bitcoin; govs will choose their poison and will likely actively support bitcoin over alternatives that bake anonymity in for every transaction/user.

The beauty of bitcoin is that the level of anonymity is effectively user-selectable. With enough effort, you can remain pretty private. It's just not idiot proof... As noted, I think that plays a large role in why govs haven't been super aggressive towards it.

[CoinMode]

Newbie here. This is my biggest concern with converting some of my fiat to BTC. I'm worried that a better/more highly evolved coin (which may not even be here yet) will ultimately become the most widely used cryptocurrency. I would hate to jump on the bandwagon only to see Bitcoin become the "Myspace" of cryptocurrencies.

On the other hand, Bitcoin does seem to have a pretty good network effect and it seems like adoption of Bitcoin is increasing every day. Not only that, it seems that Bitcoin just has a massive lead over all the other alt coins. I put my vote at less than 25% that it becomes the "Myspace" of cryptocurrencies, but what does everyone else think and why?


Thanks

You realize that giving us your opinion gives a bias to the entire survey, right? You basically told people how you expect a rational person to vote, and so they are all inclined to have their opinion slightly more in favor of the option you chose than if you hadn't suggested that as the best option. This is really basic stuff. How could you not know this?

That one thing, the bias that you introduced, makes every single answer that everybody on here gave absolutely useless.

[Harley997]

Newbie here. This is my biggest concern with converting some of my fiat to BTC. I'm worried that a better/more highly evolved coin (which may not even be here yet) will ultimately become the most widely used cryptocurrency. I would hate to jump on the bandwagon only to see Bitcoin become the "Myspace" of cryptocurrencies.

On the other hand, Bitcoin does seem to have a pretty good network effect and it seems like adoption of Bitcoin is increasing every day. Not only that, it seems that Bitcoin just has a massive lead over all the other alt coins. I put my vote at less than 25% that it becomes the "Myspace" of cryptocurrencies, but what does everyone else think and why?


Thanks

You realize that giving us your opinion gives a bias to the entire survey, right? You basically told people how you expect a rational person to vote, and so they are all inclined to have their opinion slightly more in favor of the option you chose than if you hadn't suggested that as the best option. This is really basic stuff. How could you not know this?

That one thing, the bias that you introduced, makes every single answer that everybody on here gave absolutely useless.

None of the polls are anything close to scientific anyway

[NEM minnow]

All first generation tech gives way to 2nd generation.  Bitcoin is really awesome, but is not without its issues.  These issues can be addressed for a next generation coins.

[Melbustus]

All first generation tech gives way to 2nd generation.  Bitcoin is really awesome, but is not without its issues.  These issues can be addressed for a next generation coins.

See page-1 of this thread for numerous reasons why protocols that demonstrate strong network effects, such as bitcoin, tend to be upgraded instead of replaced. Many of the core internet protocols (IP, SMTP, HTTP, etc) are decent examples of similar phenomena.

[RomertL]

Bitcoin:

Not anonymous, not even really pseudonymous.  More centralization year over year.  I am hopeful that something better can come along, or that programmers have the wherewithal to make it better instead of leaving it at status quo.

Be careful what you wish for. A completely anon coin (Zerocoin in theory?) would get aggressively attacked by governments. All govs have to do to keep a coin's use (and value) limited is to make it illegal for any *merchant* to accept it without aggressive KYC/AML. The openness of the bitcoin blockchain has played a large role in there not being aggressive anti-cryptocoin legislation. I suspect that once things like Zerocoin emerge and start to gain traction, we're going to see aggressive moves by regulatory bodies against such coins. Sidenote: that'll be bullish for bitcoin; govs will choose their poison and will likely actively support bitcoin over alternatives that bake anonymity in for every transaction/user.

The beauty of bitcoin is that the level of anonymity is effectively user-selectable. With enough effort, you can remain pretty private. It's just not idiot proof... As noted, I think that plays a large role in why govs haven't been super aggressive towards it.

Isn't Darkwallet quite anonymous? Or is the anonymity of say, Darkcoin, higher?

[BittBurger]

Anyone who voted "Greater than 75%" missed the boat and is an alt coin hopeful.

-B-