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Question: What's your percent chance that Bitcoin will be the "Myspace" of cryptos?
less than 25% - 54 (51.4%)
~25% - 9 (8.6%)
~50% - 20 (19%)
~75% - 6 (5.7%)
greater than 75% - 16 (15.2%)
Total Voters: 105

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Author Topic: What's your percent chance that Bitcoin will be the "Myspace" of cryptos?  (Read 3398 times)
Bit_Happy
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June 19, 2014, 01:32:20 AM
 #41

A more accurate comparison will (probably) be .com domains vs all other extensions, with Bitcoin always remaining #1 in most countries of the world and no alt coin ever coming close.

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June 19, 2014, 02:25:47 AM
 #42

... I know the Myspace analogy technically isn't that great of one. I'm speaking more in terms of Bitcoin being over-hyped and there potentially being a better successor to come along.

You have to understand the context of "better successor". Bitcoin was not an incremental improvement on prior attempts at digital cash. It was a large breakthrough in computer science (specifically solving global consensus; the "byzantine generals problem"). The problem stood unsolved for decades. The network-effect surrounding the solution to this problem as applied to digital money, as you can see with bitcoin's success, is huge.

Possible incremental improvements over the current implementation details of bitcoin are nowhere near interesting enough to unseat bitcoin's dominance. It's not proper to compare bitcoin to specific companies (FB, Myspace); a far better analogy is core internet protocols.

Bitcoin is the first viable protocol for trustless exchange of value. It's more analogous to things like SMTP or IP. Did improvements to those protocols exist? Of course... But when we're talking about things that are a large break from the past, "good enough" plus first usually wins over incompatible alternative approaches.

It's also worth noting that these protocols evolve and incorporate new ideas. Bitcoin has the same properties; if new ideas come along that are indeed very beneficial, it's likely they'll be incorporated into bitcoin.

For me to get worried about successors, I'd have to see fundamental new solutions to the problem of achieving trustless global consensus over an insecure network. No alt does that. And even if one did come along, I'm not sure quite how it would do it massively better. The fact is, bitcoin's consensus solution works, and that's all it takes to launch the virus of digital money.

For the non-technical person, think of it this way:  The Bitcoin protocol is analogous to the English system of measurement.  Do we have a better system of measurement?  Of course.  The metric system is better because it is based on a factor of 10.  However, the English system is still predominantly used in many countries because it would require an enormous amount of effort for society to change to the metric system.  We would have to change mile marker signs on roads, change the the tools that we use to measure length and quantities, change the game of baseball, basketball, football.  These changes would not be worth undertaking when the English system is "good enough."

Protocols are similar to systems of measurement.  IPv6 is better than IPv4 but we still use IPv4 because in order to change solely to IPv6 we would have to change existing routers, switches, servers, NICs, OS, ect.  IPv6 has been in existence for 15 years but has yet to be used as the primary Internet Protocol. 

Bitcoin is a wealth transfer protocol.  For society to switch to another protocol as the primary currency and payments system, mining operations would have to be changed, exchanges and wallet services would have to switch to the new protocol, hardware wallets such as the trezor would have to be redone, ect.  While bitcoin is still young, the possibility exists that a better currency could take its place, but I believe we are near the point of no return and society will choose not to change existing infrastructure because a coin is slightly better.  Myspace and Facebook are just applications on the internet that users can switch back and forth between willy nilly without any repercussions or changes in infrastructure.


And this:

The "Myspace" / "Facebook" analogy breaks down because of the economic concept of opportunity cost.

There is essentially nothing preventing a person from reaping as much utility as they're going to get out of both Myspace and Facebook simultaneously. Having a Myspace account in no way inhibited you from just going and signing up for Facebook when it became available. In fact it's probably the opposite, the kind of person that even cared about Myspace would also like Facebook.

With Bitcoin versus some unspecified future altcoin, there is a serious barrier. You don't have infinite money.
In addition to this, network effects are stronger for currencies than social networks.

Content on a social network depreciates rapidly. Currency does not (absent limitless issuance of more units).

Counterfeit:  made in imitation of something else with intent to deceive:  merriam-webster
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June 20, 2014, 07:59:30 AM
 #43

We all have to understand that bitcoin not gonna last forever and one day new better substitutes will appear...
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June 20, 2014, 11:12:56 AM
 #44

While I don't ever see Bitcoin dying off totally like Myspace, without a doubt it will have some serious competition in the coming years. Another crypto could easily surpass Bitcoin's marketcap.

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June 20, 2014, 11:16:09 AM
 #45

It's not about coins, it's all about people, users, and devs.

From this perspective, I've yet to see a real threat to btc in this space.
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June 20, 2014, 11:31:06 AM
 #46

I dont see BTC going away like myspace did to a bigger community like it did with FAcebook
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June 20, 2014, 11:32:29 AM
 #47

First coin that comes out with solution to preventing 51% attacks and better network decentralization will become Facebook and BTC will become MySpace if it doesnt adapt. But, as far as i know solution is not as easy as everyone thinks so we might wait for some time untill that happens. It's possible that BTC devs find solution like that which would set BTC's no1 place in stone and noone could touch it for quiet some time.

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June 20, 2014, 11:32:41 AM
 #48

I think it's going to be around much longer. In the same way that IRC is used today, even though that protocol was introduced in 1988. Sure, other protocols will come - as happend with chat protocols.  IRC didn't get replaced by say Skype, and I think with Bitcoin it will be the same story. Different uses;

I think in the short term, we will see that a lot of the alt coins get dumped - leaving only a few coins in use. When shopping online, you may have a choice between three crypto-currencies in addition to creditcard payment methods. I don't think we'll see shops where you can pay with 1000s of different coins, that's simply impractical.


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June 20, 2014, 04:14:47 PM
 #49

If another "better crypto" than Bitcoin comes to appear, its economy will be sustained by the Bitcoin itself.

Bitcoin is the gold of cryptos, i think from now on it will never fade.
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June 20, 2014, 05:31:38 PM
 #50

I tend to be of the view that something would have to go seriously wrong with Bitcoin before a competitor even comes close to surpassing it.  We've had hundreds of alts come along and none of them have done anything drastically amazing that allows it to start gaining ground on Bitcoin's head start.  In fact, the vast number of indistinguishable clone-coins is likely a contributing factor that helps secure BTC in the top spot.  An alt would have to break the mold from it's contemporaries before it can take on Bitcoin and most of them can't even manage that.

If it does happen, it's either going to take something truly impressive and groundbreaking from some incredibly talented developers, or Bitcoin taking a wrong turn and imploding in upon itself.

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Hippie Tech
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June 20, 2014, 07:58:10 PM
 #51

100% ! ... When cryptos and 3D printers merge. Shocked

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June 21, 2014, 07:01:18 AM
 #52

If you're worried, diversify into altcoins.
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June 21, 2014, 05:10:22 PM
 #53

First coin that comes out with solution to preventing 51% attacks and better network decentralization will become Facebook and BTC will become MySpace if it doesnt adapt. But, as far as i know solution is not as easy as everyone thinks so we might wait for some time untill that happens. It's possible that BTC devs find solution like that which would set BTC's no1 place in stone and noone could touch it for quiet some time.

What prevents 51% attacks from taking place today are the block subsidies. By giving miners 25 BTC (as of today) the miners have little to no incentive to execute a 51% attack as they would likely earn more by simply continuing to mine as usual even if they had 51% of the network.

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June 21, 2014, 05:35:42 PM
 #54

Up until a few weeks ago I would have been in the under 25% group, but the recent success of Ghash.io in getting such a large hashing share and the resulting mischief they can cause suggests there is room for real improvement in the bitcoin protocol. 
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June 21, 2014, 05:39:58 PM
 #55

it's going to be hard to build a community that competes with BTC in terms of merchants, infrastructure, dedicated miners and developers. it's possible, but unlikely.
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June 21, 2014, 05:47:59 PM
 #56

Oh, no! Bitcoin will lead to a deflationary spiral! If only someone could've thought of this before!
SELL ALL YOUR BITCOINS!!!
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June 21, 2014, 06:27:49 PM
 #57

First coin that comes out with solution to preventing 51% attacks and better network decentralization will become Facebook and BTC will become MySpace if it doesnt adapt. But, as far as i know solution is not as easy as everyone thinks so we might wait for some time untill that happens. It's possible that BTC devs find solution like that which would set BTC's no1 place in stone and noone could touch it for quiet some time.

If you've been under the rock recently, there are at least 2 such coins more or less known and with a few months of track record:

PoW: Myriadcoin
PoS: NXT
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June 21, 2014, 06:31:14 PM
 #58

Thats simply impossible, because MySpace got competition from Facebook
Bitcoin don't have competition Smiley its one of a kind
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June 23, 2014, 11:36:29 AM
 #59

People call Myspace a failure, but they made a shitload of money before they became irrelevant. No business lasts forever.

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June 23, 2014, 11:51:06 AM
 #60

Bitcoin don't have competition Smiley its one of a kind

Another voice from under the rock, you guys really should learn new things from time to time not to make such stupid statements.
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