Global Financial Crisis scenarios

[botany]

War can actually result in bitcoin supply coming down as well, with a lot of private keys getting lost...

[1715436087]

1715436087

[1715436087]

1715436087

[1715436087]

1715436087

[1715436087]

1715436087

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

Fiat allows bigger and more expensive wars than what?

Than no fiat

How do you figure?  The amount of resources needed to fight a war is the same, no matter what currency you're using.  A country using fiat will just spend more of their currency on the war, but they have more to begin with because they're presumably printing a lot of it.

Agreed that most politicians probably don't just try to start war : politicians do things that lead to wars and are manipulated by people that want war, it is very obvious in the Ukraine situation

That's very true, especially the part about politicians being manipulated by other people that want war.

[zedicus]

The financial crisis took out a few players (banks / investment banks) in the credit market. The absence of these financial intermediaries would have resulted in lower credit being available to main street. Rates would also have risen, with banks not willing to take on additional risk. QE was supposed to ensure that this did not happen, by making ample liquidity available in the system.

So, in the worst case, QE just didn't work out since there was not much demand for credit from the "main street", but it didn't make it worse either, right?

It hasn't made it worse, but its efficacy was low.

QE and low interest rates postponed the crisis but it is going to be worse and will probably end up in hyper inflation and wars

I really don't see QE and wars being linked, especially since most of the modernized world has engaged in some kind of QE (neither wars fought with military or economic/trade wars). Also the fact that banks are keeping the majority of the money they get from QE as excess reserves at the federal reserve is preventing inflation from getting out of hand.

Fiat allows bigger and more expensive wars; QE and low interest rates is a way not to be honest about the situation and to hide the problems for a while; when the problems will come back and be bigger, the politicians will not accept it and say they were wrong.
QE+low interest rates manipulate the markets heavily which can come back in the form of frustration, protests or wars.

In the US the politicians tend to regulate for the big banks and the big corporations such as the military industry; wars are good for the former so wars are made. Politicians are often sociopaths who want to control everyone so they are likely to start wars when their fallacious economic actions are unsucessful

It sounds like you are implying that QE allows for governments to borrow at artificially low interest rates in order to pay for wars. Although this is technically true this has not happened, but rather the opposite. The US has withdrawn from one War (Iraq) and has not entered into really any conflicts since QE started. Instead the US and much of europe has used QE for social programs to give away money to the lazy and less successful.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

The financial crisis took out a few players (banks / investment banks) in the credit market. The absence of these financial intermediaries would have resulted in lower credit being available to main street. Rates would also have risen, with banks not willing to take on additional risk. QE was supposed to ensure that this did not happen, by making ample liquidity available in the system.

So, in the worst case, QE just didn't work out since there was not much demand for credit from the "main street", but it didn't make it worse either, right?

It hasn't made it worse, but its efficacy was low.

QE and low interest rates postponed the crisis but it is going to be worse and will probably end up in hyper inflation and wars

I really don't see QE and wars being linked, especially since most of the modernized world has engaged in some kind of QE (neither wars fought with military or economic/trade wars). Also the fact that banks are keeping the majority of the money they get from QE as excess reserves at the federal reserve is preventing inflation from getting out of hand.

Fiat allows bigger and more expensive wars; QE and low interest rates is a way not to be honest about the situation and to hide the problems for a while; when the problems will come back and be bigger, the politicians will not accept it and say they were wrong.
QE+low interest rates manipulate the markets heavily which can come back in the form of frustration, protests or wars.

In the US the politicians tend to regulate for the big banks and the big corporations such as the military industry; wars are good for the former so wars are made. Politicians are often sociopaths who want to control everyone so they are likely to start wars when their fallacious economic actions are unsucessful

It sounds like you are implying that QE allows for governments to borrow at artificially low interest rates in order to pay for wars. Although this is technically true this has not happened, but rather the opposite. The US has withdrawn from one War (Iraq) and has not entered into really any conflicts since QE started. Instead the US and much of europe has used QE for social programs to give away money to the lazy and less successful.

They've been giving it to the lazy, less successful, and the rich, which include banks.  People that have invested in the stock, commodity, and especially bond markets (i.e., mostly the upper middle class and the rich) have made a lot of money off of QE.

[GangkisKhan]

The financial crisis took out a few players (banks / investment banks) in the credit market. The absence of these financial intermediaries would have resulted in lower credit being available to main street. Rates would also have risen, with banks not willing to take on additional risk. QE was supposed to ensure that this did not happen, by making ample liquidity available in the system.

So, in the worst case, QE just didn't work out since there was not much demand for credit from the "main street", but it didn't make it worse either, right?

It hasn't made it worse, but its efficacy was low.

QE and low interest rates postponed the crisis but it is going to be worse and will probably end up in hyper inflation and wars

I really don't see QE and wars being linked, especially since most of the modernized world has engaged in some kind of QE (neither wars fought with military or economic/trade wars). Also the fact that banks are keeping the majority of the money they get from QE as excess reserves at the federal reserve is preventing inflation from getting out of hand.

Fiat allows bigger and more expensive wars; QE and low interest rates is a way not to be honest about the situation and to hide the problems for a while; when the problems will come back and be bigger, the politicians will not accept it and say they were wrong.
QE+low interest rates manipulate the markets heavily which can come back in the form of frustration, protests or wars.

In the US the politicians tend to regulate for the big banks and the big corporations such as the military industry; wars are good for the former so wars are made. Politicians are often sociopaths who want to control everyone so they are likely to start wars when their fallacious economic actions are unsucessful

It sounds like you are implying that QE allows for governments to borrow at artificially low interest rates in order to pay for wars. Although this is technically true this has not happened, but rather the opposite. The US has withdrawn from one War (Iraq) and has not entered into really any conflicts since QE started. Instead the US and much of europe has used QE for social programs to give away money to the lazy and less successful.

The money given to the social programs is small when comparing to money given to the defense industry.

Beside, much of the social programs were paid by taxpayers having the money deduct every month from the paycheck, I won't call it "free" money.

[zedicus]

The financial crisis took out a few players (banks / investment banks) in the credit market. The absence of these financial intermediaries would have resulted in lower credit being available to main street. Rates would also have risen, with banks not willing to take on additional risk. QE was supposed to ensure that this did not happen, by making ample liquidity available in the system.

So, in the worst case, QE just didn't work out since there was not much demand for credit from the "main street", but it didn't make it worse either, right?

It hasn't made it worse, but its efficacy was low.

QE and low interest rates postponed the crisis but it is going to be worse and will probably end up in hyper inflation and wars

I really don't see QE and wars being linked, especially since most of the modernized world has engaged in some kind of QE (neither wars fought with military or economic/trade wars). Also the fact that banks are keeping the majority of the money they get from QE as excess reserves at the federal reserve is preventing inflation from getting out of hand.

Fiat allows bigger and more expensive wars; QE and low interest rates is a way not to be honest about the situation and to hide the problems for a while; when the problems will come back and be bigger, the politicians will not accept it and say they were wrong.
QE+low interest rates manipulate the markets heavily which can come back in the form of frustration, protests or wars.

In the US the politicians tend to regulate for the big banks and the big corporations such as the military industry; wars are good for the former so wars are made. Politicians are often sociopaths who want to control everyone so they are likely to start wars when their fallacious economic actions are unsucessful

It sounds like you are implying that QE allows for governments to borrow at artificially low interest rates in order to pay for wars. Although this is technically true this has not happened, but rather the opposite. The US has withdrawn from one War (Iraq) and has not entered into really any conflicts since QE started. Instead the US and much of europe has used QE for social programs to give away money to the lazy and less successful.

The money given to the social programs is small when comparing to money given to the defense industry.

Beside, much of the social programs were paid by taxpayers having the money deduct every month from the paycheck, I won't call it "free" money.

Most social programs are funded by the majority of the people and consumed by few (although "few" is expanding at a dangerous rate today). I was referring to programs like disability insurance, food stamps, welfare, unemployment insurance and the like. Disability for example rarely sees anyone ever drop from it's roles once someone starts receiving benefits.

All taxes are taken from an employee's paycheck every month as they are required to pay taxes based on their income.

There is not a dime that is given to the defense industry. There are defense contractors that receive payment for their goods that they produce to keep our country secure but this is far from being given to them. To further counter your argument, the amount spent on social programs far exceeds the total defense budget.

[boumalo]

The financial crisis took out a few players (banks / investment banks) in the credit market. The absence of these financial intermediaries would have resulted in lower credit being available to main street. Rates would also have risen, with banks not willing to take on additional risk. QE was supposed to ensure that this did not happen, by making ample liquidity available in the system.

So, in the worst case, QE just didn't work out since there was not much demand for credit from the "main street", but it didn't make it worse either, right?

It hasn't made it worse, but its efficacy was low.

QE and low interest rates postponed the crisis but it is going to be worse and will probably end up in hyper inflation and wars

I really don't see QE and wars being linked, especially since most of the modernized world has engaged in some kind of QE (neither wars fought with military or economic/trade wars). Also the fact that banks are keeping the majority of the money they get from QE as excess reserves at the federal reserve is preventing inflation from getting out of hand.

Fiat allows bigger and more expensive wars; QE and low interest rates is a way not to be honest about the situation and to hide the problems for a while; when the problems will come back and be bigger, the politicians will not accept it and say they were wrong.
QE+low interest rates manipulate the markets heavily which can come back in the form of frustration, protests or wars.

In the US the politicians tend to regulate for the big banks and the big corporations such as the military industry; wars are good for the former so wars are made. Politicians are often sociopaths who want to control everyone so they are likely to start wars when their fallacious economic actions are unsucessful

It sounds like you are implying that QE allows for governments to borrow at artificially low interest rates in order to pay for wars. Although this is technically true this has not happened, but rather the opposite. The US has withdrawn from one War (Iraq) and has not entered into really any conflicts since QE started. Instead the US and much of europe has used QE for social programs to give away money to the lazy and less successful.

The money given to the social programs is small when comparing to money given to the defense industry.

Beside, much of the social programs were paid by taxpayers having the money deduct every month from the paycheck, I won't call it "free" money.

Most social programs are funded by the majority of the people and consumed by few (although "few" is expanding at a dangerous rate today). I was referring to programs like disability insurance, food stamps, welfare, unemployment insurance and the like. Disability for example rarely sees anyone ever drop from it's roles once someone starts receiving benefits.

All taxes are taken from an employee's paycheck every month as they are required to pay taxes based on their income.

There is not a dime that is given to the defense industry. There are defense contractors that receive payment for their goods that they produce to keep our country secure but this is far from being given to them. To further counter your argument, the amount spent on social programs far exceeds the total defense budget.

Maybe there is no need for that much money to secure the USA and money taken from the paycheck + taken to the employer is taken to the employee at the end because the employer considers all costs including the legal costs which are huge in the States, people would make 3times more after tax in average with lower taxes and lower regulation

When 100 is taken to an employee, most of it is consumed by the State and only a fraction is given away to the people

[boumalo]

Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

What do you mean by the USD going up - the USD index, i.e. dollar going up against other major currencies?

Yes

So, as long as USDX is not going down, treasuries are ok (i.e. the debt can keep on growing) as well as the U.S. economy, right?

Hypothetically. This could mean everyone is killing their currency faster than the USA.

However, countries with the exchange rate being lowered are now at an advantage. As they export goods, they can pay their employees more, and 80% of the time the purchasing power of the currency stays the same, unless something REALLY goes to crap.

If they start paying their employees more, that would cause inflation, and the purchasing power of the currency will not stay the same, especially if this process takes on (future expectations on inflation would invariably kick in).

If your currency is depreciating, you may export more nominally but what about in value?
If your currency is depreciating, the inputs you use to produce your product are going to increase in price (nominally) so you will have to increase your price
Your employees are going to need increased wages since the prices are going to go up in the country, if they don't, the fact that the currency depreciated is bad for the employees thus for most people

[jjacob]

If your currency is depreciating, you may export more nominally but what about in value?
If your currency is depreciating, the inputs you use to produce your product are going to increase in price (nominally) so you will have to increase your price
Your employees are going to need increased wages since the prices are going to go up in the country, if they don't, the fact that the currency depreciated is bad for the employees thus for most people

You just have to see how much China has benefited from having an undervalued currency.

[Eisenhower34]

Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

What do you mean by the USD going up - the USD index, i.e. dollar going up against other major currencies?

Yes

So, as long as USDX is not going down, treasuries are ok (i.e. the debt can keep on growing) as well as the U.S. economy, right?

Hypothetically. This could mean everyone is killing their currency faster than the USA.

However, countries with the exchange rate being lowered are now at an advantage. As they export goods, they can pay their employees more, and 80% of the time the purchasing power of the currency stays the same, unless something REALLY goes to crap.

If they start paying their employees more, that would cause inflation, and the purchasing power of the currency will not stay the same, especially if this process takes on (future expectations on inflation would invariably kick in).

If your currency is depreciating, you may export more nominally but what about in value?
If your currency is depreciating, the inputs you use to produce your product are going to increase in price (nominally) so you will have to increase your price
Your employees are going to need increased wages since the prices are going to go up in the country, if they don't, the fact that the currency depreciated is bad for the employees thus for most people

The prices of foreign goods will have gone up while, all else being equal, the price of domestically produced goods will stay the same. The result is that domestic goods will have an advantage over foreign goods

[boumalo]

Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

What do you mean by the USD going up - the USD index, i.e. dollar going up against other major currencies?

Yes

So, as long as USDX is not going down, treasuries are ok (i.e. the debt can keep on growing) as well as the U.S. economy, right?

Hypothetically. This could mean everyone is killing their currency faster than the USA.

However, countries with the exchange rate being lowered are now at an advantage. As they export goods, they can pay their employees more, and 80% of the time the purchasing power of the currency stays the same, unless something REALLY goes to crap.

If they start paying their employees more, that would cause inflation, and the purchasing power of the currency will not stay the same, especially if this process takes on (future expectations on inflation would invariably kick in).

If your currency is depreciating, you may export more nominally but what about in value?
If your currency is depreciating, the inputs you use to produce your product are going to increase in price (nominally) so you will have to increase your price
Your employees are going to need increased wages since the prices are going to go up in the country, if they don't, the fact that the currency depreciated is bad for the employees thus for most people

The prices of foreign goods will have gone up while, all else being equal, the price of domestically produced goods will stay the same. The result is that domestic goods will have an advantage over foreign goods

Prices of foreign goods will have gone up so it is bad for the consumers and for companies that need to buy a lot of foreign goods to produce their goods

The price of foreign goods will go up as well and even if they have an advantage over foreign goods domestic companies may sell more but will only get more nominally not in value or very marginally; they will need to increase their salaries to upset the higher cost of living and they will pay more taxes

[bf4btc]

Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

What do you mean by the USD going up - the USD index, i.e. dollar going up against other major currencies?

Yes

So, as long as USDX is not going down, treasuries are ok (i.e. the debt can keep on growing) as well as the U.S. economy, right?

Hypothetically. This could mean everyone is killing their currency faster than the USA.

However, countries with the exchange rate being lowered are now at an advantage. As they export goods, they can pay their employees more, and 80% of the time the purchasing power of the currency stays the same, unless something REALLY goes to crap.

If they start paying their employees more, that would cause inflation, and the purchasing power of the currency will not stay the same, especially if this process takes on (future expectations on inflation would invariably kick in).

If your currency is depreciating, you may export more nominally but what about in value?
If your currency is depreciating, the inputs you use to produce your product are going to increase in price (nominally) so you will have to increase your price
Your employees are going to need increased wages since the prices are going to go up in the country, if they don't, the fact that the currency depreciated is bad for the employees thus for most people

The prices of foreign goods will have gone up while, all else being equal, the price of domestically produced goods will stay the same. The result is that domestic goods will have an advantage over foreign goods

Prices of foreign goods will have gone up so it is bad for the consumers and for companies that need to buy a lot of foreign goods to produce their goods

The price of foreign goods will go up as well and even if they have an advantage over foreign goods domestic companies may sell more but will only get more nominally not in value or very marginally; they will need to increase their salaries to upset the higher cost of living and they will pay more taxes

When the price of goods made in other countries goes up, it makes the goods produced domestically more competitive so more domestic goods will be sold, helping the local economy. 

[boumalo]

Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

What do you mean by the USD going up - the USD index, i.e. dollar going up against other major currencies?

Yes

So, as long as USDX is not going down, treasuries are ok (i.e. the debt can keep on growing) as well as the U.S. economy, right?

Hypothetically. This could mean everyone is killing their currency faster than the USA.

However, countries with the exchange rate being lowered are now at an advantage. As they export goods, they can pay their employees more, and 80% of the time the purchasing power of the currency stays the same, unless something REALLY goes to crap.

If they start paying their employees more, that would cause inflation, and the purchasing power of the currency will not stay the same, especially if this process takes on (future expectations on inflation would invariably kick in).

If your currency is depreciating, you may export more nominally but what about in value?
If your currency is depreciating, the inputs you use to produce your product are going to increase in price (nominally) so you will have to increase your price
Your employees are going to need increased wages since the prices are going to go up in the country, if they don't, the fact that the currency depreciated is bad for the employees thus for most people

The prices of foreign goods will have gone up while, all else being equal, the price of domestically produced goods will stay the same. The result is that domestic goods will have an advantage over foreign goods

Prices of foreign goods will have gone up so it is bad for the consumers and for companies that need to buy a lot of foreign goods to produce their goods

The price of foreign goods will go up as well and even if they have an advantage over foreign goods domestic companies may sell more but will only get more nominally not in value or very marginally; they will need to increase their salaries to upset the higher cost of living and they will pay more taxes

When the price of goods made in other countries goes up, it makes the goods produced domestically more competitive so more domestic goods will be sold, helping the local economy. 

-Do you read what I wrote? You will sell more but you will receive more in a devaluated currency so you may not receive more in VALUE

1/Let's say you used to sell 100USD and 100USD=100Euro
2/now you devaluate the USD and 100USD=80euros
3/ Yousell 120USD but 120USD=96EURO so you actually make less in value

-Companies will need to increase their salaries to upset the higher cost of living because of higher taxes and higher cost of raw material and importations
 
-Companies will pay more taxes

[abrahamlitcoin]

War can actually result in bitcoin supply coming down as well, with a lot of private keys getting lost...

Agreed. Who would think about their coins if their families are being slaughtered.

[CryptoCarmen]

War can actually result in bitcoin supply coming down as well, with a lot of private keys getting lost...

Agreed. Who would think about their coins if their families are being slaughtered.

And their wallets gets rocketed. I wonder how many wallets wil gets lost because of people dieing from Ebola.

[boumalo]

War can actually result in bitcoin supply coming down as well, with a lot of private keys getting lost...

Agreed. Who would think about their coins if their families are being slaughtered.

And their wallets gets rocketed. I wonder how many wallets wil gets lost because of people dieing from Ebola.

Instability and government oppression should show Bitcoin like a solution thus increasing adoption

[BillyBobZorton]

War can actually result in bitcoin supply coming down as well, with a lot of private keys getting lost...

Agreed. Who would think about their coins if their families are being slaughtered.

And their wallets gets rocketed. I wonder how many wallets wil gets lost because of people dieing from Ebola.

Instability and government oppression should show Bitcoin like a solution thus increasing adoption

There are 2 possible scenareos:

1) People THAT KNOW (they need to first know about it...) about Bitcoin, put their wealth into Bitcoin hoping it doesnt crash

2) People put their wealth into gold, hoping it doesnt crash

Thats the only legit ways to store your wealth.

[boumalo]

War can actually result in bitcoin supply coming down as well, with a lot of private keys getting lost...

Agreed. Who would think about their coins if their families are being slaughtered.

And their wallets gets rocketed. I wonder how many wallets wil gets lost because of people dieing from Ebola.

Instability and government oppression should show Bitcoin like a solution thus increasing adoption

There are 2 possible scenareos:

1) People THAT KNOW (they need to first know about it...) about Bitcoin, put their wealth into Bitcoin hoping it doesnt crash

2) People put their wealth into gold, hoping it doesnt crash

Thats the only legit ways to store your wealth.

Google, Oil and other ressources companies or building a business could be other ways to invest your wealth

[DhaniBoy]

This scenario is actually since the beginning of SDH made ​​to those interested will monopolize the world economy, people are making this scenario must have substantial funds, so it can make a great scenario for the world economy, the world economy is controlled by a very powerful man, capable of monopolize the world money supply and regulate the wealth of individuals and the state ... 

[zinger]

War can actually result in bitcoin supply coming down as well, with a lot of private keys getting lost...

Agreed. Who would think about their coins if their families are being slaughtered.

And their wallets gets rocketed. I wonder how many wallets wil gets lost because of people dieing from Ebola.

LOL.. Is that Ebola thing really serious? What do you think? Will this ebola thing will end the world? Come on..