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Author Topic: Global Financial Crisis scenarios  (Read 15304 times)
binks1
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June 18, 2014, 02:35:33 AM
 #1

Hi,

I have a question, but please direct me to a post if already asked:

In case of another GFC, would BTC bitcoin price:

a) stays on the same level  Cool
b) skyrockets  Grin
c) tumble down  Cry

?
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ganabb
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June 18, 2014, 05:52:21 AM
 #2

If you had $1000 in the bank, and they may print a bunch of new money in a few years that $1000 will be worth about $600 today. Bitcointalk would skyrockets soon.

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June 18, 2014, 12:41:34 PM
 #3

As far as i understand it, BTC would skyrocket, as ppl would run away from fiat into something that doesnt loose value because of crazy limitless printing. Some would run to gold, some to silver, some to other limited things, and some would run to BTC. Once they get in, price goes up, as price goes up, others see it too. Attracted like flies to a flame, they run into BTC, price goes up even more...you get where i'm aiming at...

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June 18, 2014, 01:03:50 PM
 #4

Hi,

I have a question, but please direct me to a post if already asked:

In case of another GFC, would BTC bitcoin price:

a) stays on the same level  Cool
b) skyrockets  Grin
c) tumble down  Cry

Take your pick:


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Yakamoto
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June 18, 2014, 07:37:35 PM
 #5

Hi,

I have a question, but please direct me to a post if already asked:

In case of another GFC, would BTC bitcoin price:

a) stays on the same level  Cool
b) skyrockets  Grin
c) tumble down  Cry

Take your pick:


That image nearly sums it up.

Assuming that the USD flops, the value of crypto would increase dramatically, and those who sell mining hardware of any kind (Sheep will buy the ASICs up like mad) will make a massive profit as well. Even companies such as Nvidia and ATI and AMD will earn tons, due to the amount of GPUs people will be buying for coins like Dark.

So in short, if the USD flops toward the flor, cryptos will become the new way of life, almost no contest. It'd be brought down to two things:
1. If power is still runnning
2. If there is a mentality that only "physical" things have value

If you can tell me exactly yes or no to those two questions, then I can tell you if cryptos will increase in value or not.
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June 18, 2014, 07:45:06 PM
 #6

Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

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June 18, 2014, 09:19:16 PM
 #7

Hi,

I have a question, but please direct me to a post if already asked:

In case of another GFC, would BTC bitcoin price:

a) stays on the same level  Cool
b) skyrockets  Grin
c) tumble down  Cry

?

If the crisis will be constrained to finances only, then the answer is pretty obvious. Bitcoin will evidently skyrocket as it already did after the deposits had been expropriated in Cyprus a year ago. Now imagine the same situation on a worldwide scale and you guess the answer.

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June 18, 2014, 09:25:47 PM
 #8

Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

tee-rex
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June 19, 2014, 02:49:06 PM
 #9

Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

What do you mean by the USD going up - the USD index, i.e. dollar going up against other major currencies?

GangkisKhan
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June 19, 2014, 06:19:14 PM
 #10

Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

What do you mean by the USD going up - the USD index, i.e. dollar going up against other major currencies?

USD index has been going up steady in the last few years.

People think US is in bad shape, but they don't realize Europe and some export countries has high dependency on US.

Real estate in export countries has been going up the roof. Price went up 100% in a matter of 1-2 years as their own country currency is pegged to USD.
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June 20, 2014, 09:26:36 AM
 #11

Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

What do you mean by the USD going up - the USD index, i.e. dollar going up against other major currencies?

USD index has been going up steady in the last few years.

People think US is in bad shape, but they don't realize Europe and some export countries has high dependency on US.

If the exporting countries buy U.S. government debt (i.e. treasuries) in exchange for the goods they supply, then this dependency may ultimately turn out devastating to the U.S. economy. If they don't buy treasuries, then this dependency is mutual overall since the exports should be balanced by the corresponding imports.

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June 20, 2014, 10:05:51 AM
 #12

Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

What do you mean by the USD going up - the USD index, i.e. dollar going up against other major currencies?

USD index has been going up steady in the last few years.

People think US is in bad shape, but they don't realize Europe and some export countries has high dependency on US.

If the exporting countries buy U.S. government debt (i.e. treasuries) in exchange for the goods they supply, then this dependency may ultimately turn out devastating to the U.S. economy. If they don't buy treasuries, then this dependency is mutual overall since the exports should be balanced by the corresponding imports.

It has been to exchange goods that require hard work against IOU's for the US government and the countries exporting were able to build their industry and learn valuable skills but now they are shifting to a situation where it will be more interesting to have a more valuable currency and sell their products to their own people instead of getting paper in exchange of their hard labor

It will be devastating for the US

Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

What do you mean by the USD going up - the USD index, i.e. dollar going up against other major currencies?

Yes

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June 23, 2014, 08:55:42 PM
 #13

Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

What do you mean by the USD going up - the USD index, i.e. dollar going up against other major currencies?

Yes

So, as long as USDX is not going down, treasuries are ok (i.e. the debt can keep on growing) as well as the U.S. economy, right?

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June 23, 2014, 11:08:05 PM
 #14

Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

What do you mean by the USD going up - the USD index, i.e. dollar going up against other major currencies?

Yes

So, as long as USDX is not going down, treasuries are ok (i.e. the debt can keep on growing) as well as the U.S. economy, right?
Hypothetically. This could mean everyone is killing their currency faster than the USA.

However, countries with the exchange rate being lowered are now at an advantage. As they export goods, they can pay their employees more, and 80% of the time the purchasing power of the currency stays the same, unless something REALLY goes to crap.

E.x: Canada sells $10 to America. America pays Canada $10, but Canada gets $11 due to exchange rate differences. Purchasing power is nearly 1:1, and so Canada makes a larger profit.

This is constant for all other currencies and countries.

So as every other currency goes down, they are earning more against the USD. It also means that the US may be setting up to import lots of goods, since they can buy said product in the example for $10. And then everything begins to change from there.

It's kind of wierd, but if you do a bit of research, you'll understand.
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June 24, 2014, 02:13:17 AM
 #15

they forgot one trait

traceability/anonymity

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June 24, 2014, 04:49:03 AM
 #16

It would likely increase in price as it did when crypress had it's banking crisis last year.

A financial crisis by definition put the financial stability of banks into question. When banks ability to pay depositors is questioned then people will have an incentive to look elsewhere to hold their money. Bitcoin is a likely answer to this
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June 30, 2014, 11:16:10 AM
 #17

It would likely increase in price as it did when crypress had it's banking crisis last year.

A financial crisis by definition put the financial stability of banks into question. When banks ability to pay depositors is questioned then people will have an incentive to look elsewhere to hold their money. Bitcoin is a likely answer to this

I entirely agree with you; Bitcoin and Gold will increase in price if there is a financial crisis; when the market will understand that the USD will be inflated to death and will be abandoned in world settlements it will benefit Bitcoin (and Gold) as well

The likely scenario is the fall of USD, market panic, big banks failures, interest rates rise that will be fought by the FED via more QE then riots, marshall law and curfew in the US; the world economy is very integrated so everyone will suffer at first

But China and countries that have natural ressources, low debt and/or work well/hard will come up on top while Europe and the US will not be as powerful relatively to other countries; they will still have a lot of human&financial&physical capital, attraction and ressources so they will probably bounce back if the people doesn't fall for the speech of extremists

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June 30, 2014, 11:58:50 AM
 #18

If there was another major global financial crisis like we recently saw I think it would be almost certain that money would flow into bitcoin and we would see large gains in value. When the capital flows shift in a flight to safety things like bitcoin and gold are very attractive.
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June 30, 2014, 08:04:46 PM
 #19

If there was another major global financial crisis like we recently saw I think it would be almost certain that money would flow into bitcoin and we would see large gains in value. When the capital flows shift in a flight to safety things like bitcoin and gold are very attractive.

Roosevelt had already expropriated gold in the USA during the Great Depression. So I would be very cautious about precious metals as a safe haven in case of a serious financial crisis. They might not try to take it away from you this time, but could make it illegal to trade, for example (or take to other not so drastic measures).

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June 30, 2014, 08:12:54 PM
 #20

Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

What do you mean by the USD going up - the USD index, i.e. dollar going up against other major currencies?

Yes

So, as long as USDX is not going down, treasuries are ok (i.e. the debt can keep on growing) as well as the U.S. economy, right?
Hypothetically. This could mean everyone is killing their currency faster than the USA.

However, countries with the exchange rate being lowered are now at an advantage. As they export goods, they can pay their employees more, and 80% of the time the purchasing power of the currency stays the same, unless something REALLY goes to crap.

If they start paying their employees more, that would cause inflation, and the purchasing power of the currency will not stay the same, especially if this process takes on (future expectations on inflation would invariably kick in).

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