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BuildTheFuture
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June 20, 2014, 01:54:03 PM |
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Currently there are 11.8 Million dollar of USD swap demand, and only 1.1 Million of offers. http://www.bfxdata.com/Is this bad or good ? Nick. I'll go out on a limb and guess good. If you look at the longer term history of total USD swaps at the site http://www.bfxdata.com/, back during the bitcoin price jump last year the USD swap amounts outstanding were pretty much continuously hitting new highs. The higher interest rates attracted more and more USD lenders and this IMO partially fueled the overall bitcoin price rise. So I'm hoping to see something similar happen here and the interest rates and swap demand stay high enough to suck in a bunch more USD lenders. |
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Bitcoin mining is now a specialized and very risky industry, just like gold mining. Amateur miners are unlikely to make much money, and may even lose money. Bitcoin is much more than just mining, though!
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MoreFun
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WePower.red
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June 20, 2014, 01:58:57 PM |
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TERA if there would be a lot of demand for shorting BTC would you think this is bullish?
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adamstgBit
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Trusted Bitcoiner
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June 20, 2014, 02:01:31 PM |
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if bitfinex was more trusted, we would see the sawp demand fulfilled, not saying bitfinex is not legit or trustworthy, but i'm sure the shady look and feel to the bitcoin exchanges is holding back alot of money.
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Miz4r
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June 20, 2014, 02:03:45 PM |
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More relevant imo is a historic comparison like active swaps and average rate of active swaps. And that view, despite what some bulls in here like to think, is slightly bearish, with USD swaps pretty much maxed out. Why would that be slightly bearish? I think it's neutral, but maybe I'm missing something here so I'm willing to learn. I just don't see the connection knowing only this piece of information. |
Bitcoin = Gold on steroids
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HeliKopterBen
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June 20, 2014, 02:07:50 PM |
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if bitfinex was more trusted, we would see the sawp demand fulfilled, not saying bitfinex is not legit or trustworthy, but i'm sure the shady look and feel to the bitcoin exchanges is holding back alot of money.
Good point. The silk road coins auction will likely be a better indication of real demand, especially by larger, more established players... it depends on how close to spot those coins are sold. |
Counterfeit: made in imitation of something else with intent to deceive: merriam-webster
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oda.krell
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June 20, 2014, 02:11:46 PM |
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More relevant imo is a historic comparison like active swaps and average rate of active swaps. And that view, despite what some bulls in here like to think, is slightly bearish, with USD swaps pretty much maxed out. Why would that be slightly bearish? I think it's neutral, but maybe I'm missing something here so I'm willing to learn. I just don't see the connection knowing only this piece of information. Sure, I don't mind explaining how I arrive at that conclusion. I'm not an expert on reading swaps, but my perspective on them is as follows: I read this one similar to spotting divergences on a price derived indicator -- the "divergence" here is that price is falling, or at least stagnating, but USD swaps make new highs. In my experience, this is an early bearish signal. Example: February 6 this year. |
Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure. Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
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Joe200
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June 20, 2014, 02:38:17 PM |
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I don't get it. The average rate on active USD swaps is actually pretty low. Doesn't that mean that the supply of USD that can still be lent is high? So not bearish.
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Miz4r
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June 20, 2014, 02:45:36 PM |
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More relevant imo is a historic comparison like active swaps and average rate of active swaps. And that view, despite what some bulls in here like to think, is slightly bearish, with USD swaps pretty much maxed out. Why would that be slightly bearish? I think it's neutral, but maybe I'm missing something here so I'm willing to learn. I just don't see the connection knowing only this piece of information. Sure, I don't mind explaining how I arrive at that conclusion. I'm not an expert on reading swaps, but my perspective on them is as follows: I read this one similar to spotting divergences on a price derived indicator -- the "divergence" here is that price is falling, or at least stagnating, but USD swaps make new highs. In my experience, this is an early bearish signal. Example: February 6 this year. But price isn't falling? We corrected to $537 and even $522 on Finex because of margin calls. USD swaps actually went down during that correction by a few million USD. Then the price started rising up to $610 again together with USD swaps, and now we're consolidating/flagging in $580-610 area until we see another breakout. The most likely way forward looking at the technicals here is a continuation of the trend, which is upwards. I don't think I can agree with your reasoning here that the number of USD swaps is a bearish indicator, but good luck if you decide to trade based on this.  |
Bitcoin = Gold on steroids
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oda.krell
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June 20, 2014, 03:04:53 PM |
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More relevant imo is a historic comparison like active swaps and average rate of active swaps. And that view, despite what some bulls in here like to think, is slightly bearish, with USD swaps pretty much maxed out. Why would that be slightly bearish? I think it's neutral, but maybe I'm missing something here so I'm willing to learn. I just don't see the connection knowing only this piece of information. Sure, I don't mind explaining how I arrive at that conclusion. I'm not an expert on reading swaps, but my perspective on them is as follows: I read this one similar to spotting divergences on a price derived indicator -- the "divergence" here is that price is falling, or at least stagnating, but USD swaps make new highs. In my experience, this is an early bearish signal. Example: February 6 this year. But price isn't falling? We corrected to $537 and even $522 on Finex because of margin calls. USD swaps actually went down during that correction by a few million USD. Then the price started rising up to $610 again together with USD swaps, and now we're consolidating/flagging in $580-610 area until we see another breakout. The most likely way forward looking at the technicals here is a continuation of the trend, which is upwards. I don't think I can agree with your reasoning here that the number of USD swaps is a bearish indicator, but good luck if you decide to trade based on this. I didn't say anything about trading based on this. It's a small piece inside a larger puzzle, and I am slightly more bearish as a result of it. That's all. The USD swap peaks I mean are on June 18 (crossing 26M USD), with price at the time ~$80 below the $680 top. Like I said: I think of it as a "divergence". Not the same as a stand-alone sell signal (which rarely exists anyway  ) |
Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure. Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
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Tzupy
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June 20, 2014, 03:48:20 PM |
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Total sum of active $ swaps is still 25M$, just below the peak, average rate has dropped. I don't know, is BFX supposed to have all the $, or can they operate with a fractional reserve (this may be a silly question  )? |
Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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TheJuice
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June 20, 2014, 04:01:37 PM |
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The argument that bitcoin is being held up by borrowed money in false. I am planning money, money id otherwise have in btc.
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MatTheCat
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June 20, 2014, 04:23:24 PM |
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I don't know, is BFX supposed to have all the $, or can they operate with a fractional reserve (this may be a silly question )? No! Not Possible! The Bitfinex exchange operators, with access to all BFX trader positions, stop losses and limit orders, and with absolutely no regulatory oversight, would never dare to start trying to Jimmy the numbers and/or operate fractional reserve systems in order to multiply their profits by an order of several magnitude. Only bad exchanges like MtGox would even dream of attempting to dabble in those sort of black arts! |
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keithers
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This is the land of wolves now & you're not a wolf
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June 20, 2014, 10:06:08 PM |
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I just point out TA, patterns, and fractals. No agenda. If technicals were more bullish, my charts would be too. KEep in mind also they are not predictions but possibilities. There is a possibility also of a rally, if the right events develop.
Not that it matters either way, but are you a man or woman? People around here are speculating... For the record though, you were pretty accurate on the latest market correction after this most recent rise to near $700 (and back down), I remember reading it as we were near the top.. |
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CEG5952
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June 20, 2014, 10:08:46 PM |
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Total sum of active $ swaps is still 25M$, just below the peak, average rate has dropped. I don't know, is BFX supposed to have all the $, or can they operate with a fractional reserve (this may be a silly question )? Well, all that money is supposed to be in the "deposit" accounts of lenders. After the contract is up, you are free to move the money..... so I certainly hope no fractional reserve. |
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piramida
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Borsche
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June 20, 2014, 10:50:33 PM |
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if the history repeats itself as in $10->$2 collective short by bitcoinica, we would see a slow decline to $100 for half a year, then bitfinex would run with customer's money and the rally to 10000 starts PS this comment obviously is a joke, as is any thread trying to predict future price based on tea leavesbitfinex PPS somebody here actually lends money through bitfinex? Brave souls, my hat off to you. I also have a nigerian prince inheritance we need to discuss with you, PM me. |
i am satoshi
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TERA
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June 20, 2014, 11:33:22 PM |
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TERA if there would be a lot of demand for shorting BTC would you think this is bullish?
It's not a demand for bitcoin. It's actually a demand for USD. It's called "USD swap demand" is a market for people to borrow USD, based on the interest rate. |
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maker88
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June 20, 2014, 11:39:45 PM |
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i actually think tera made a good point this time, but i don't think it will go down to the 400s. i think we have a few more weeks of sideways trading. a lot of people aren't moving until the fbi sale. i hope the price stays down for a while so i can buy more though, so i guess I'm biased.
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Zohann
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June 21, 2014, 12:02:19 AM |
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I concur Maker.. I'm looking at a similar fractal completing like the one we just passed.. I'll start making some purchases around $540.
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TheJuice
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June 21, 2014, 06:19:05 AM |
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if bitfinex was more trusted, we would see the sawp demand fulfilled, not saying bitfinex is not legit or trustworthy, but i'm sure the shady look and feel to the bitcoin exchanges is holding back alot of money.
So true. That's the reason swap is expensive, inherent risk for the lenders that the site suddenly disappears with all the money. |
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