How much are you willing to pay for Bitmain (Antminer) S3?

[bitcoinbelieve]

Yes, it does. If you include the process and shipping time then you are looking at least one week delay. By this time the difficulty probably will rise another 10~20%. We are in hashing race now

[DrG]

Well earnings decrease similar to exponential decay.  More than 1/2 your earning come from the first month of mining.  If the S3 arrived 1 difficulty period late you're basically down 30% in earnings.

[gmaxwell]

Delaying the release a week affects your price that much?

7 days is a hashrate change of 1.072x under 1%/day assumption— which suggests that you should pay 0.9327x the price you were willing to pay before—, recent growth looks more like 2%/day which would be 1.148x the hashrate in 7 days— which suggests you should pay 0.87x the price. Obviously S3 itself shipping in quantity will also drive rates higher…

Obviously the exact timing of the target matters when you're getting down to details like this, but in general small timing difference can make a big difference in income.  It may not matter that much unless you're already right at the verge of a sure loss, but the trend with mining hardware lately has been to sell at near or across that boundary.

[Minnesooooota]

Delaying the release a week affects your price that much?

7 days is a hashrate change of 1.072x under 1%/day assumption— which suggests that you should pay 0.9327x the price you were willing to pay before—, recent growth looks more like 2%/day which would be 1.148x the hashrate in 7 days— which suggests you should pay 0.87x the price. Obviously S3 itself shipping in quantity will also drive rates higher…

Obviously the exact timing of the target matters when you're getting down to details like this, but in general small timing difference can make a big difference in income.  It may not matter that much unless you're already right at the verge of a sure loss, but the trend with mining hardware lately has been to sell at near or across that boundary.

I understand this. I was just trying to point out that the price he was originally willing to pay was too high