Bitcoin Profitability? Am I wrong?

[skydigger]

Hello I don't get it, How it's possible to make any profit on Bitcoin mining

Look Year Worth of Difficulty increase data:

==============================================
Jun 18 2014    13,462,580,115    14.51%    96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014    11,756,551,917    12.44%    84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014    10,455,720,138    18.10%    74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014    8,853,416,309    10.66%    63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014    8,000,872,136    14.64%    57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014    6,978,842,650    14.04%    49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014    6,119,726,089    22.23%    43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014    5,006,860,589    17.80%    35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014    4,250,217,920    11.39%    30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014    3,815,723,799    21.92%    27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014    3,129,573,175    19.39%    22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014    2,621,404,453    19.49%    18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014    2,193,847,870    22.59%    15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014    1,789,546,951    26.16%    12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014    1,418,481,395    20.12%    10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013    1,180,923,195    30.01%    8,453,378 GH/s
Dec 10 2013    908,350,862    28.41%    6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013    707,408,283    16.07%    5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013    609,482,680    19.29%    4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013    510,929,738    30.70%    3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013    390,928,788    46.02%    2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013    267,731,249    41.45%    1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013    189,281,249    27.19%    1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013    148,819,200    32.13%    1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013    112,628,549    29.56%    806,227 GH/s
Sep 04 2013    86,933,018    32.22%    622,291 GH/s
Aug 24 2013    65,750,060    29.40%    470,657 GH/s
Aug 13 2013    50,810,339    35.88%    363,715 GH/s
Aug 03 2013    37,392,766    19.63%    267,668 GH/s
Jul 22 2013    31,256,961    19.47%    223,746 GH/s
Jul 11 2013    26,162,876    22.63%    187,281 GH/s
Jun 29 2013    21,335,329    10.32%    152,724 GH/s
================================================

On Average every 10 days difficulty increase 20% +-

So, Am I right saying (Assuming Price of Bitcoin FLAT) - If I want to keep generating Same amount of

Coins, I have to roughly ADD 20% Every 10 days to My Hardware Hashing Power?

Basically you have to double Hash power every 50 days, while ROI is about 170 days or more?

So you have to spend more and more and more to keep Earnings FLAT?

Dudes, it's a loss anyway you look at.

NO Way this is  profitable... Or my calculation is wrong?

Anybody?

Thank you.

[d57heinz]

@ skydigger  im currently at 9.7 ths and with this next diff increase without investing more cash there is no way to keep up.,. I was able to keep ahead of the diff increases with my mining revenue  but now its next to impossible.. im already paying the power with with my money out of pocket..  so im wondering what the solution to this disaster will be... this is not good for miners.. either they raise transaction fees or rewad per block or this is gonna quickly go to shit for roi....as difficulty goes up the reward should have doubled not halved.. ie 50 btc per block would now be 100.. not 25 per block then 12.5 ughhh   doesn't make much since at all considering as difficulty goes up mining will be non profitable 

Would love to see some discussion on this..

d57heinz
In Bitcoin We Trust

[skydigger]

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking, too, This craziness cannot keep up or else
Bitcoin mining alone will need few Nuclear Power plants, not to say profitability
is in the rapid decline. I guess people buying those Bitcoin contracts at 3-7$ per gh/s
simply need to go back to school or start using calculator at least
Thanks for the reply.. Let's see, what we come up with..

[d57heinz]

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking, too, This craziness cannot keep up or else
Bitcoin need alone will new few Nuclear Power plants, not to say profitability
is in the rapid decline I guess people buying those Bitcoin contracts at 3-7$ per gh/s
simply need to go back to school or start to use calculator at least
Thanks for conversation start.. Let's see, what we come up with..

yes those bitcoin contracts are another future blow to the bitcoin ecosystem that we really could do without.. Just taking all the newcomers for there hard earned money and in a month the contracts wont be paying out unless you have at least a 1th/s or more.. maybe not even then.. all those people that get burnt will never want to go back.. its just more bad publicity.. And imo if the asic manufacturers don't start letting the machines out in batches like once a month we are gonna just destroy the system and force centralization as a only way to profit from mining as the difficulty will be astronomical...  I think this is got some major flaws yet that have to be addressed NOW.. the hell with pushing it out to vendors until they got he major hurdles overcome.. ie 51%.. NO ROI....The only people making any money here is the asic manufacturers and the people who buy and hold.. but if the miners cant make anything then the whole thing fails...so then everyone loses right???..

[beatljuice]

I'm not sure I understand why you guys (or gals) are in Bitcoin. If you don't believe the price (value) of bitcoin is going to go up why are you investing at all?

I've been cloud mining for almost 4 months and have been able to keep ahead of the curve up until now. Just decided today not to invest more in that arena and just allow my 2+TH/s to earn me what it will for the next five years. I didn't decide this just because of the big jump in difficulty that's coming that I won't be able to match with current earnings. I'm also wanting to promote bitcoin more, and decided that micro-loans to bitcoin businesses or something like it would actually help promote bitcoin and help me make money - a win-win-win if you will.

[d57heinz]

I do feel it will go up in value.  but by that time it will be centralized if they don't start acting quickly..... completely against what bitcoin stands for..... and if you think your cloud mining will last "forever" or even 5 years imo difficulty will squeeze those places right out of existence.. "Mining forever" Lmao...  good luck with that one..  just be careful for when those bubbles pop at 3-4 times hw price for gh/s...ill be able to handle this diff increase but many will not .. im hoping next diff will be around 10 % making it average out over the two...

[thejewelrytech]

I have to agree as after the next diff increase to be scheduled 25%+ Y'OUCH after that my miners are pretty much done The only hope then becomes SOLO MINING and catching Lightning to come ahead. The real culprit here is EXCHANGES!!! They are the DEATH OF US........ And Yes we only have ourselves to blame!!!! Because we gave our Bitcoin to those who have MONEY and and all these PUMP and DUMP chumps care about is FIAT! not BITCOIN! We gave them THE POWER TOO KEEP BITCOIN DOWN!!! If only PEOPLE HODL? IT might of been a different story........... BUT anyone that sold BITCOIN FOR CASH? YOU ARE TO BLAME....... and companies like BITPAY they are destroying not helping Bitcoin because they SELL IT RIGHT BACK and keep BITCOIN DOWN it will never rise like it should with these companies and with RICH people able to take Bitcoin from MINERS hands THE JOKE"S ON US!! We do all the work buy the equipment, pay for electricity and with a couple thousand dollars they just REBUY and DUMP IT DOWN and us MINERS are the ones left HOLDING THE BAG...........
 Maybe the next generation if Miners will LEARN ? NOT TO SELL........but with companies like GHASH in play that's highly unlikely and noww it's way too late ........... So we only have ourselves to blame and Yes Miners will say " I HAD TO MAKE ROI" you should of learned some simple ECONOMICS beforehand! ANY TIME YOU SELL YOU DEVALUE! People shot themselves in the FOOT ! GAURANTEEING NEVER TO HAVE ROI because they couldn't LET GO OF THE FIAT!!When BITCOIN was suppose to replace it!!!!! DUH.........Only if they HOLDED on to their BITCOIN would we have a different story! We were THE FRONTLINE it was up too US and we FAILED MISERABLY because we couldn't LET GO OF THE FIAT This is why SATOSHi probably left BITCOIN because HIS DREAM for  BITCOIN ? WAS TO REPLACE FIAT! NOT SELL IT FOR FIAT

[beatljuice]

I'm sure my 2 TH/s will only be earning a few satoshi in 5 years, but My guess is that a satoshi will be worth at least a cent by then. To the moooooon!

[d57heinz]

I have to agree as after the next diff increase to be scheduled 25%+ Y'OUCH after that my miners are pretty much done The only hope then becomes SOLO MINING and catching Lightning to come ahead. The real culprit here is EXCHANGES!!! They are the DEATH OF US........ And Yes we only have ourselves to blame!!!! Because we gave our Bitcoin to those who have MONEY and and all these PUMP and DUMP chumps care about is FIAT! not BITCOIN! We gave them THE POWER TOO KEEP BITCOIN DOWN!!! If only PEOPLE HODL? IT might of been a different story........... BUT anyone that sold BITCOIN FOR CASH? YOU ARE TO BLAME....... and companies like BITPAY they are destroying not helping Bitcoin because they SELL IT RIGHT BACK and keep BITCOIN DOWN it will never rise like it should with these companies and with RICH people able to take Bitcoin from MINERS hands THE JOKE"S ON US!! We do all the work buy the equipment, pay for electricity and with a couple thousand dollars they just REBUY and DUMP IT DOWN and us MINERS are the ones left HOLDING THE BAG...........
 Maybe the next generation if Miners will LEARN ? NOT TO SELL........but with companies like GHASH in play that's highly unlikely and noww it's way too late ........... So we only have ourselves to blame and Yes Miners will say " I HAD TO MAKE ROI" you should of learned some simple ECONOMICS beforehand! ANY TIME YOU SELL YOU DEVALUE! People shot themselves in the FOOT ! GAURANTEEING NEVER TO HAVE ROI because they couldn't LET GO OF THE FIAT!!When BITCOIN was suppose to replace it!!!!! DUH.........Only if they HOLDED on to their BITCOIN would we have a different story! We were THE FRONTLINE it was up too US and we FAILED MISERABLY because we couldn't LET GO OF THE FIAT This is why SATOSHi probably left BITCOIN because HIS DREAM for  BITCOIN ? WAS TO REPLACE FIAT! NOT SELL IT FOR FIAT

You are exactly right... ive been mining since march and dumped 20k into it./  I haven't once sold my btc for fiat ever!!  I have only used fiat to pay for power bills.. all my mining revenue goes into more equip which I purchase in btc.. but as of late its a losing battle.  I often compare it to the chasing the dragon scenario so many heroin addicts go thru...:/

[skydigger]

I'm sure my 2 TH/s will only be earning a few satoshi in 5 years, but My guess is that a satoshi will be worth at least a cent by then. To the moooooon!

But the problem is you invest/pay  for your 2 TH/s contract at least $4+K NOW!!! In hope to at least get your money back in 3-4-6-12 month later?

What is the benefit of doing that, when You simply can buy Bitcoin, at the the next LOW and that's it.?? And you already at  "ROI"

And, if you going to get knock down by Bitcoin decline then Bitcoin miners will simply get killed, those are going to keep operation

at double Loss.. The Main Problem is GREED!!!!!!! Why is the Heck Those Crooks need to create Machines 1TH then 10 TH then 100 TH/s??

And get Bitcoin diff RISE absolutely accordingly?  This will only lead for more and more ENERGY use and 0 Profit after All for Everyone,

not to say small players already out of the game.. IT's all about GREED people, (That I might Get Those Machines Ahead of

Anybody Else and Scalp profit quickly) And Greed will always lead to "Welfare" eventually..

And what else? 1000's will get Scammed Those who are Buying some "Mysterious" machines.. Why it the F* you want to pay for some Dream machine,

which will supposedly come out 4-5-6--10 "Batch" whatever f* that means? I read about those 200-400 kh/s Scrypt Miners since Last Year

Heck, they are already supposed to be on the market long time ago and??? "TITAN"? my A$$.. Everyone keep paying and waiting and ?

After all, ones all those Dreamers will get those Machines (IF !) Difficulty will rise 100% in 1 month and it's over..

Greed!... Why In this .BIZ NOTHING is in STOCK??? if it's so damn profitable? I don't understand.. Always Gimme money and Wait 3 month or forever?

You know what I mean.

[d57heinz]

I'm sure my 2 TH/s will only be earning a few satoshi in 5 years, but My guess is that a satoshi will be worth at least a cent by then. To the moooooon!

But the problem is you invest/pay  for your 2 TH/s contract at least $4+K NOW!!! In hope to at least get your money back in 3-4-6-12 month later?

What is the benefit of doing that, when You simply can buy Bitcoin, at the the next LOW and that's it.?? And you already at  "ROI"

And, if you going to get knock down by Bitcoin decline then Bitcoin miners will simply get killed, those are going to keep operation

at double Loss.. The Main Problem is GREED!!!!!!! Why is the Heck Those Crooks need to create Machines 1TH then 10 TH then 100 TH/s??

And get Bitcoin diff RISE absolutely accordingly?  This will only lead for more and more ENERGY use and 0 Profit after All for Everyone,

not to say small players already out of the game.. IT's all about GREED people, (That I might Get Those Machines Ahead of

Anybody Else and Scalp profit quickly) And Greed will always lead to "Welfare" eventually..

And what else? 1000's will get Scammed Those who are Buying some "Mysterious" machines.. Why it the F* you want to pay for some Dream machine,

which will supposedly come out 4-5-6--10 "Batch" whatever f* that means? I read about those 200-400 kh/s Scrypt Miners since Last Year

Heck, they are already supposed to be on the market long time ago and??? "TITAN"? my A$$.. Everyone keep paying and waiting and ?

After all, ones all those Dreamers will get those Machines (IF !) Difficulty will rise 100% in 1 month and it's over..

Greed!... Why In this .BIZ NOTHING is in STOCK??? if it's so damn profitable? I don't understand.. Always Gimme money and Wait 3 month or forever?

You know what I mean.

Exactly right  greed is s killer for all new things  soon as people realize a buck is to be made they beat it to death...  Good thing about difficulty is it effects the ones that dump 1 dollar into a miner the exact same as the guy that drop 100 billion.. in two months if ya didn't drop another 100 billion then your not making shit..  its not wonder satoshi bailed on us

[beatljuice]

It's not greed people. It's natural market growth. Happens all the time. Businesses of every kind die every day because things get "commoditized." Most grocery stores run on a 2-5% margin. I certainly couldn't run my business on those margins.

So, my advice (and what I'm doing) is looking for bitcoin businesses to invest in. This truly helps build a bitcoin economy where we all have access to a free market where things get commoditized and sometimes we loose money. That's how free markets work.

Quit looking for others to change their ways so you can make the profit you think you should. That's the crap our governments have been doing, bailing out failing businesses because some rich guys might have to sell a beach house or 2. You made your own fucking decisions. If they didn't work out, learn from it and make the best you can of it, and/or move on.

Free market! It means you may loose money! Wahhhhhhh!

[d57heinz]

It's not greed people. It's natural market growth. Happens all the time. Businesses of every kind die every day because things get "commoditized." Most grocery stores run on a 2-5% margin. I certainly couldn't run my business on those margins.

So, my advice (and what I'm doing) is looking for bitcoin businesses to invest in. This truly helps build a bitcoin economy where we all have access to a free market where things get commoditized and sometimes we loose money. That's how free markets work.

Quit looking for others to change their ways so you can make the profit you think you should. That's the crap our governments have been doing, bailing out failing businesses because some rich guys might have to sell a beach house or 2. You made your own fucking decisions. If they didn't work out, learn from it and make the best you can of it, and/or move on.

Free market! It means you may loose money! Wahhhhhhh!

apparently you lack understanding in how this system works.. if the miners don't make money then the whole system collapses PERIOD!!!  Who will mine for free or at a loss ..  nobody in there right mind RIGHT??

[d57heinz]

if you truly want to save bitcoin then you have to at some point not allow any more hash speed onto the network.. whoever got in to that point is in.. no more miners allowed and or upgrades.. then the diff remains the same  and you will get steady payouts. till all coins are mined.... then all newcomers instead of wasting money on equip that never roi 's they then buy bitcoin which will make the price per coin finally start going up..and the miners will start making something for there efforts.. I don't know one person mining that hasn't had some kind of problems they lost sleep over..  I monitor 24/7 maintaining 35 machines.  so its got to be worth something bottom line..

[Tripjammer]

If more miners drop out the diff drops.

[Cranky4u]

THis is a reflection of the supply /demand of capatalism. We have an oversupply of willing miners, hence difficulty is now so high itis unprofitable. People are now subsidising the mining efforts out of their own 'cash' reserves.Once people decide to cut their losses by turning off miners, not just selling rigs to another miner, then the difficulty will drop and mining will becoe prrofitable again for some. Those with the lowest operating costs will remaining on and the operating cost curves will dictate whom switches back on next.

Hope you have your businesss plan ready...

[d57heinz]

THis is a reflection of the supply /demand of capatalism. We have an oversupply of willing miners, hence difficulty is now so high itis unprofitable. People are now subsidising the mining efforts out of their own 'cash' reserves.Once people decide to cut their losses by turning off miners, not just selling rigs to another miner, then the difficulty will drop and mining will becoe prrofitable again for some. Those with the lowest operating costs will remaining on and the operating cost curves will dictate whom switches back on next.

Hope you have your businesss plan ready...

all I can say is im thankful I live in Illinois my power is only .04 a kw so I will be on when most will have to switch off:D

[Cranky4u]

THis is a reflection of the supply /demand of capatalism. We have an oversupply of willing miners, hence difficulty is now so high itis unprofitable. People are now subsidising the mining efforts out of their own 'cash' reserves.Once people decide to cut their losses by turning off miners, not just selling rigs to another miner, then the difficulty will drop and mining will becoe prrofitable again for some. Those with the lowest operating costs will remaining on and the operating cost curves will dictate whom switches back on next.

Hope you have your businesss plan ready...

all I can say is im thankful I live in Illinois my power is only .04 a kw so I will be on when most will have to switch off:D

In Australia, my power cost is AU$0.30 kWh. The only way for BTC mining to be viable was to not push hard into 3rd gen ASICs but to put my GPU / FPGA profits into a stand alone alternative power supply - a grid connect 1.5kW system but now making a dedicated 400W hybrid system just for BTC mining. Now my power is secured, I can mine up to ~400Wh all day with next to no ongoing costs (effectively free elec now for mining)

Without a plan, most miners will fail...

[d57heinz]

THis is a reflection of the supply /demand of capatalism. We have an oversupply of willing miners, hence difficulty is now so high itis unprofitable. People are now subsidising the mining efforts out of their own 'cash' reserves.Once people decide to cut their losses by turning off miners, not just selling rigs to another miner, then the difficulty will drop and mining will becoe prrofitable again for some. Those with the lowest operating costs will remaining on and the operating cost curves will dictate whom switches back on next.

Hope you have your businesss plan ready...

all I can say is im thankful I live in Illinois my power is only .04 a kw so I will be on when most will have to switch off:D

In Australia, my power cost is AU$0.30 kWh. The only way for BTC mining to be viable was to not push hard into 3rd gen ASICs but to put my GPU / FPGA profits into a stand alone alternative power supply - a grid connect 1.5kW system but now making a dedicated 400W hybrid system just for BTC mining. Now my power is secured, I can mine up to ~400Wh all day with next to no ongoing costs (effectively free elec now for mining)

Without a plan, most miners will fail...

Smart thinking going solar...that cost of power would kill the chance of ever making anything back for sure even early on.. glad you thought ahead.. not too many will im afraid... ive got some leeway yet but at some point I too will have to cash out and get some solar power to make it profitable again in the future...im hoping that tech slows at 20 nm and we have a massive slow down on diff within a month or two...  wait and see is all I can do...I have faith in bitcoin.. just needs some work yet.. every day we are reminded how infant this really all still is:D

d57heinz
In Bitcoin We Trust!

[beatljuice]

It's not greed people. It's natural market growth. Happens all the time. Businesses of every kind die every day because things get "commoditized." Most grocery stores run on a 2-5% margin. I certainly couldn't run my business on those margins.

So, my advice (and what I'm doing) is looking for bitcoin businesses to invest in. This truly helps build a bitcoin economy where we all have access to a free market where things get commoditized and sometimes we loose money. That's how free markets work.

Quit looking for others to change their ways so you can make the profit you think you should. That's the crap our governments have been doing, bailing out failing businesses because some rich guys might have to sell a beach house or 2. You made your own fucking decisions. If they didn't work out, learn from it and make the best you can of it, and/or move on.

Free market! It means you may loose money! Wahhhhhhh!

apparently you lack understanding in how this system works.. if the miners don't make money then the whole system collapses PERIOD!!!  Who will mine for free or at a loss ..  nobody in there right mind RIGHT??

Apparently you lack understanding in how this system works. If people believe it's not profitable some will quit mining and then the ones that keep going will then start profiting once again.

There will never again be big profits in mining. But if all you're doing is holding your bitcoin, there is a good chance you can earn a percentage on top of the holding by mining. Instead of putting $200 a month into buying bitcoin, buy electricity and turn that into bitcoin. Over the long term I do believe that mining will continue to be profitable, but we're only talking single digit percentages from now on.