Price vs. Google Trends Search Volume for "bitcoin" (2011-09-04 - Present)

[infested999]

BitStamp Price History obtained from http://api.bitcoincharts.com/v1/csv/

Google Trends data obtained from trends.google.com



Donations appreciated:

[RyNinDaCleM]

It looks to me like those who know how to google search, already know about Bitcoin and don't care

[BTCfan1]

looks to me like another spike is coming

[derpinheimer]

looks to me like another spike is coming

[Raystonn]

BitStamp Price History obtained from http://api.bitcoincharts.com/v1/csv/

Google Trends data obtained from trends.google.com



Donations appreciated: 1CJJXipY18D9F8aFQ8cDiXMRLgvbipBeTW

Care to present this on a log chart?

[nwfella]

+1 this request for log scaled version.

[BuildTheFuture]

Looks to me like price leads the google trends?

[infested999]

Looks to me like price leads the google trends?

My analysis is that there is a cycle in price in crease like this.

Traders buy and price rises -> "Get rich quick" idiots search Google for "Bitcoin" -> 3 buisiness days later when their SEPA deposit clears there is a spike in price.

Don't look at it as the searc volume raising the price, look at the search volume raising the price on a 3-buisiness-day delay. So that spike on 2013-04-02 was actually the smaller one 3 days later. I'll do a more in depth analysis later.

[criptix]

Looks to me like price leads the google trends?

My analysis is that there is a cycle in price in crease like this.

Traders buy and price rises -> "Get rich quick" idiots search Google for "Bitcoin" -> 3 buisiness days later when their SEPA deposit clears there is a spike in price.

Don't look at it as the searc volume raising the price, look at the search volume raising the price on a 3-buisiness-day delay. So that spike on 2013-04-02 was actually the smaller one 3 days later. I'll do a more in depth analysis later.

lol i just though exactly that by watching on the log chart

[mmortal03]

Looks to me like price leads the google trends?

My analysis is that there is a cycle in price in crease like this.

Traders buy and price rises -> "Get rich quick" idiots search Google for "Bitcoin" -> 3 buisiness days later when their SEPA deposit clears there is a spike in price.

Don't look at it as the searc volume raising the price, look at the search volume raising the price on a 3-buisiness-day delay. So that spike on 2013-04-02 was actually the smaller one 3 days later. I'll do a more in depth analysis later.

It could also be that every bubble has had a "return to "normal"" sub-peak, and is unrelated to any such behavior of the "get rich quick".

[elebit]

My analysis is that there is a cycle in price in crease like this. Traders buy and price rises -> "Get rich quick" idiots search Google for "Bitcoin" -> 3 buisiness days later when their SEPA deposit clears there is a spike in price.

That's not an analysis. That's a guess.

What is the correlation here, and at what confidence level?

My guess is much more simple: Interest follows price. Google Trends is a pretty good measure of general interest.

[YogoH]

Looks like a lagging indicator to me.