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Author Topic: Ver. #1 Feeling lucky? - "Heads or Tails" Experiment - Need 2 "Contestants"  (Read 1149 times)
the joint
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February 25, 2012, 02:52:53 AM
 #1

I would like to invite you all to a game/experiment that could turn into a write-up worthy quasi-experiment if enough pairs of people want to play.  It's also called "Ver. #1" because I have several ideas for a variation of this experiment/game.  Assuming enough interest is generated, I will attempt to run this game/experiment as often as possible for a minimum of 3 months and a maximum of 6 months to allow for a large enough sample size.

By playing, you agree that you do not have a gambling addiction that is either diagnosed or that you perceive to have.  You give consent that any data collected from this experiment/game may be used for analysis, the results of which could be disseminated to academic institutions or any public.  You agree that your participation is voluntary and that you assume all monetary and psychological risks and/or losses incurred from participating in this experiment.  You also agree that you have understood all rules that are posted below.  You also agree that you may receive a brief follow-up questionnaire via PM which you will be asked to answer and return.

I need two, and only two, players for this risky game.

The rules are as follows, and please read carefully :

On Feb. 29th, 2012 at 7:00 PM U.S. Central Time, I will take a webcam video of myself flipping a (1965) Quarter, at random, at arms length while standing.  The quarter will fall onto a carpeted floor without being caught, though it may bump into something at any point along it's path, and it will land on either "heads" or "tails."  The camera will first record me tossing the coin, then it will record a close up of the face of the coin.  The transition from recording the toss to recording the result will be uncut to demonstrate that the results have not been manipulated in any way.  The resulting video will be posted on YouTube for viewing.

The first contestant (determined according to whoever first posts their interest in playing), should he wish to play, must choose either "heads" or "tails" and declare it first in a post here.  Posting "heads" or "tails" means you have officially placed an entry into this experiment.

The second contestant, should he wish to play, must agree to choose the option that the first contestant did not.  For example, if Player 1 chooses "heads," Player 2 must choose "tails" if he wishes to play.  He will do so by declaring his choice in a post after Player 1.

Both players must choose to participate at least 1 hour prior to 7:00 PM US Central on Feb. 29th.  After two players have agreed to participate, I will post a Bitcoin address to which each player will deposit a certain amount of BTC.  This amount is determined by the following:

At the beginning of the game when Player 1 decides to enter, he will choose the amount of BTC he wishes to wager, selecting any number of BTC (integers only) between 1 and 10.

When Player 2 decides to enter, he must agree on the number of BTC selected by player 1.  For example, if player 1 selects to wager 6 BTC, Player 2 must also wager 6 BTC for a total pot sum of 12 BTC.  

THE CATCH:
Player 2 will then be given a choice to "flip" the amount of BTC for each player.   This means that "5 BTC" will become the new, fixed "0" point, and any wager will be flipped numerically to the other side of this fixed point.  For example, if Player 1 originally chooses to wager 2 BTC and Player 2 chooses to "flip," then the new wager becomes 8 BTC for each player for a total pot sum of 16 BTC ( i.e. 5 - 3 = 2 ; 5 + 3 = 8 ).

The final amount wagered should be sent to the posted BTC address at least 30 minutes prior to 7:00 PM US Central on Feb. 29th.

If, and only if, player 2 chooses to execute a "flip,"  then Player 1 will be also be given a choice.  That is, Player 1 will be given the choice to decide whether or not he wishes to reverse his original pick of "heads" or "tails."  For example, if Player 1 originally chose "tails," he will now have the option to choose "heads."  This means that Player 2's pick will also be reversed.

FEES TAKEN FROM POT
20% of the total pot sum (i.e. 20% of the total sum of BTC deposited by both players) will be taken as a fee and will not be awarded to either player regardless of game/experiment outcome.  75% of this fee will be immediately donated to Bitcoin 100 for charity.  The remaining 25% of the fee will be kept by me, the game-maker/experimenter.

For example, if the total pot sum of BTC deposited by both players = 10, then 1.5 BTC will be taken as a fee and donated to Bitcoin 100, and .5 BTC will be taken as a fee and kept by me, the game-maker/researcher.

AWARDED BTC
The player that has correctly guessed "heads" or "tails" according to the results shown in the corresponding video will be awarded the remaining total pot sum (i.e. 80% of the total sum of BTC deposited by both players).  The player that has chosen incorrectly will be awarded nothing and will forfeit their sum of BTC wagered.  

EXPERIMENTER-FEE BALANCING INCENTIVE
Players are welcome to participate multiple times, win or lose.  If a player wins 3 consecutive games, he will receive the total sum of fees (in BTC) accumulated by me, the researcher, from previous games.  However, the total sum of fees accumulated by the researcher will be reduced 50% every 7 +/- 2 days (i.e. every 5-9 days), an this reduction will be kept by him permanently.  The remaining half will be left to be taken by the first player to successfully win the game 3 consecutive times.  "Consecutive times" means that a player must win the game 3 times in a row regardless of whether or not another game has taken place that has not involved that player.

***NOTE***
As your participation is voluntary, you may choose to opt out of this game/experiment at any time prior to the designated ending of each game.  For the first game, this means that withdrawing from the game is optional until 7:00 PM US Central Time on Feb. 29th.  After this time, no wagers will be returned to either player, and deposited BTC will be awarded accordingly.  If either player withdraws before the game's end, both wagers will be returned in full.

If any of the aforementioned rules are broken by either player prior to the game's conclusion, that game will be terminated and deposits will be returned in full to both players.

Game 1 begins now; any questions are welcome prior to your entry.  I will not answer any questions asked by any player currently participating in a game unless it is a request to withdraw from the game.  Game 1 terminates at 7:00 p.m. US Central on Feb. 29th.

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edd
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February 25, 2012, 03:00:52 AM
 #2

I'll go first.

Guess: Tails

Wager: 4 BTC

Still around.
danieldaniel
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February 25, 2012, 03:46:56 AM
 #3

Actually -- Nevermind... Just realized I don't have 4 btc that I want to spend... Sorry!

the joint
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February 25, 2012, 04:05:20 AM
 #4

edd, you have chosen to participate.  danieldaniel has withdrawn.

The Player 2 seat is still available.

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