SP30 Cost recouping was Re: [ANN] Spondoolies-Tech - Best W/GH/s ratio, Best $/GH/s ratio

[Searing]

How many BTC do you folks predict the August and September SP30 machines will mine before they operates at a loss ?

August: 19 BTC
September: 16 BTC

Here is the calculation. Of course, it is just speculation, but at least it is based on regression instead of a static difficulty increase forecast: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P_rgP9XnBvuznWdRi7IUKizQHUR0DNxDrl08H90juzc/edit#gid=0

I will kiss your ass if you are in my area ..in a tutu ..in public if I can get 16 BTC out of a spondoolies sp30 sept order! (you sir are the 'hope fairy')

using the genesis block calculator at 39% difficulty increase I get like 12 BTC  and that is if equip is free and miner is free
(in a very hopeful manner...really pushing it to get 12BTC) as I think a 39% difficulty increase is very low next few months sure can't see 16 BTC!

https://tradeblock.com/mining/


hope I'm wrong....boy I really hope I'm wrong and you are correct!

Searing

[1715639505]

1715639505

[1715639505]

1715639505

[Tupsu]

How many BTC do you folks predict the August and September SP30 machines will mine before they operates at a loss ?

August: 19 BTC
September: 16 BTC

Here is the calculation. Of course, it is just speculation, but at least it is based on regression instead of a static difficulty increase forecast: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P_rgP9XnBvuznWdRi7IUKizQHUR0DNxDrl08H90juzc/edit#gid=0

Here is the more realistic calculation.
https://tradeblock.com/mining/a/c8698595f1

Sept: 2.43 BTC
Okt: 1.75    BTC
Nov: 1.26    BTC
Dets: 0.90 BTC
Jan. 2015 0.65BTC       

There's going to be a jump of almost 30 Petahash in 6 days.

Does anyone know the reasons why there is so large difficulty jump (around 25%) this time?

Some new mines being started somewhere? The hardware being replaced in established mines?

If so, do you know which mines and what is their Petahash input?

It was the KNC
https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=24hrs

[s1gs3gv]

How many BTC do you folks predict the August and September SP30 machines will mine before they operates at a loss ?

August...MORE...
September...LESS...

Incorrect question, buddy...

Why, chum ?

[Collider]

While i think sp30s should atleast break even (barring catastophic circumstances), i think calculating with a profit of 100% is unfounded.

There will most likely be profit, but (with stable bitcoin price and no massively deployed 0.2W/GH miner in the next 6 months) I would guesstimate more around 10%-40% is realistic, denominated in fiat.

Please keep in mind that estimating future difficulty, atleast more than 5-6 months into the future is pure vodoo.

[opentoe]

How many BTC do you folks predict the August and September SP30 machines will mine before they operates at a loss ?

August: 19 BTC
September: 16 BTC

Here is the calculation. Of course, it is just speculation, but at least it is based on regression instead of a static difficulty increase forecast: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P_rgP9XnBvuznWdRi7IUKizQHUR0DNxDrl08H90juzc/edit#gid=0

I will kiss your ass if you are in my area ..in a tutu ..in public if I can get 16 BTC out of a spondoolies sp30 sept order! (you sir are the 'hope fairy')

using the genesis block calculator at 39% difficulty increase I get like 12 BTC  and that is if equip is free and miner is free
(in a very hopeful manner...really pushing it to get 12BTC) as I think a 39% difficulty increase is very low next few months sure can't see 16 BTC!

https://tradeblock.com/mining/


hope I'm wrong....boy I really hope I'm wrong and you are correct!

Searing

An SP30 cost 9 bitcoin. You buy your SP30, how long will it take to get that 9 bitcoin back? Maybe. Sorry, I had to put my pessimistic hat on today. This is just my opinion, you may be better off just buying the 9 bitcoin instead so you don't have to wait such a long time to get it back, especially If BTC hits a nice rise. I'm constantly talking myself in and out of getting one and as of late am on the "out" stage right now. I do flop back and forth. If I'm reading the tradeblock site stats correctly, a September SP30 won't ROI at all at the price it is sitting at.

[s1gs3gv]

a September SP30 won't ROI at all at the price it is sitting at.

Agree, its very unlikely.

[whonesta]

a September SP30 won't ROI at all at the price it is sitting at.

+1

While I do love the SP10, simple set-up, great OC settings, solid construction. My 2 GB (3200) have lost me approx 30.00 USD to date. This is due to the rise in BTC after I bought. IF I expect another rise in BTC (which I do) then the SP30 will suffer from the same uphill climb to get over the difference. Add all that to another 5-7 diff. increases between now and Sept. and a $5200 SP30 WILL NOT ROI, especially if there is a large BTC/USD increase.

Sorry SPTech too far and too pricey.

[RoadStress]

a September SP30 won't ROI at all at the price it is sitting at.

+1

While I do love the SP10, simple set-up, great OC settings, solid construction. My 2 GB (3200) have lost me approx 30.00 USD to date. This is due to the rise in BTC after I bought. IF I expect another rise in BTC (which I do) then the SP30 will suffer from the same uphill climb to get over the difference. Add all that to another 5-7 diff. increases between now and Sept. and a $5200 SP30 WILL NOT ROI, especially if there is a large BTC/USD increase.

Sorry SPTech too far and too pricey.

Maybe https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=656170.0 ?

[s1gs3gv]

a September SP30 won't ROI at all at the price it is sitting at.

+1

Estimated Next Difficulty:   16,899,830,784 (+25.53%)

What are the chances of the August SP30 buyers getting a ROI ?

[whonesta]

a September SP30 won't ROI at all at the price it is sitting at.

+1

While I do love the SP10, simple set-up, great OC settings, solid construction. My 2 GB (3200) have lost me approx 30.00 USD to date. This is due to the rise in BTC after I bought. IF I expect another rise in BTC (which I do) then the SP30 will suffer from the same uphill climb to get over the difference. Add all that to another 5-7 diff. increases between now and Sept. and a $5200 SP30 WILL NOT ROI, especially if there is a large BTC/USD increase.

Sorry SPTech too far and too pricey.

Maybe https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=656170.0 ?

Is this GB even sanctioned?  "I'm still in talks with Spondoolies but I hope a price below 4.400 U$D "  

That would be better, but still @ 4400 not likely to ROI, $0.73/GH is a great price TODAY. By September I would be surprised if a GH is worth $0.50. Too many chips getting ready to hit the streets and those are just the ones we know about.

[RoadStress]

a September SP30 won't ROI at all at the price it is sitting at.

+1

Estimated Next Difficulty:   16,899,830,784 (+25.53%)

What are the chances of the August SP30 buyers getting a ROI ?

You had your answer. Maybe stop trolling repeating yourself?

How many BTC do you folks predict the August and September SP30 machines will mine before they operates at a loss ?

August: 19 BTC
September: 16 BTC

Here is the calculation. Of course, it is just speculation, but at least it is based on regression instead of a static difficulty increase forecast: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P_rgP9XnBvuznWdRi7IUKizQHUR0DNxDrl08H90juzc/edit#gid=0

[Collider]

a September SP30 won't ROI at all at the price it is sitting at.

+1

Estimated Next Difficulty:   16,899,830,784 (+25.53%)

What are the chances of the August SP30 buyers getting a ROI ?

Nobody knows.

I hope your electricity price is low though.

At the end of the day nobody can tell you how high your return will be, but lower hardware price and power cost are always nice.

If you think you will get a better antminer by September, just buy it then.

[whonesta]

a September SP30 won't ROI at all at the price it is sitting at.

+1

Estimated Next Difficulty:   16,899,830,784 (+25.53%)

What are the chances of the August SP30 buyers getting a ROI ?

You had your answer. Maybe stop trolling repeating yourself?

How many BTC do you folks predict the August and September SP30 machines will mine before they operates at a loss ?

August: 19 BTC
September: 16 BTC

Here is the calculation. Of course, it is just speculation, but at least it is based on regression instead of a static difficulty increase forecast: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P_rgP9XnBvuznWdRi7IUKizQHUR0DNxDrl08H90juzc/edit#gid=0

Hate to point out the obvious but the next difficulty adjustment is due to be north of 25% so this excel sheet is BUNK!!

[s1gs3gv]

a September SP30 won't ROI at all at the price it is sitting at.

+1

Estimated Next Difficulty:   16,899,830,784 (+25.53%)

What are the chances of the August SP30 buyers getting a ROI ?

You had your answer. Maybe stop trolling repeating yourself?

How many BTC do you folks predict the August and September SP30 machines will mine before they operates at a loss ?

August: 19 BTC
September: 16 BTC

Here is the calculation. Of course, it is just speculation, but at least it is based on regression instead of a static difficulty increase forecast: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P_rgP9XnBvuznWdRi7IUKizQHUR0DNxDrl08H90juzc/edit#gid=0

You gotta be kidding RoadStress. 19 BTC from an August SP30 ?  Thats not an answer, thats a sales pitch.

Estimated Next Difficulty:   16,899,830,784 (+25.53%)

[Powell]

September batch (depending on when you receive it) will not ROI unless you are going to wait 6-8 months if not a year to do so.  With this 25% jump (I factored 25 although maybe higher) and the rest of the jumps we get lucky with 13% going to 11% a September 11th shipment will put you with an almost 37 billion starting difficulty where you will be lucky to get .9btc for that entire jump.  SP's equipment is bad ass but regardless of how bitcoinrama...  I mean RoadStress tries to spin it you are shooting yourself in the foot.  If you have a huge mining setup the only thing you can hope for is a huge jump in bitcoin price which sadly I don't expect.

[Syke]

https://tradeblock.com/mining/a/7222018a89

How do you get 100 days for profit ?  SP 30  takes 150 days to reach a profit ,  if you steal electricity. Look at the upper link, where the cost of electricity is 0.01 $/kWh (the cost of cable to steal  electricity)

If you do not have a free electricity, I can not reach profit. Look at the bottom link, where the cost of electricity is  only 0,15 $/kWh

https://tradeblock.com/mining/a/b9b29a8efc

Not a good estimate beyond about 3-6 months from now. Difficulty isn't going to continue rising that fast for a whole year.

[Grix]

How many BTC do you folks predict the August and September SP30 machines will mine before they operates at a loss ?

August: 19 BTC
September: 16 BTC

Here is the calculation. Of course, it is just speculation, but at least it is based on regression instead of a static difficulty increase forecast: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P_rgP9XnBvuznWdRi7IUKizQHUR0DNxDrl08H90juzc/edit#gid=0

Here is the more realistic calculation.
https://tradeblock.com/mining/a/c8698595f1

Sept: 2.43 BTC
Okt: 1.75    BTC
Nov: 1.26    BTC
Dets: 0.90 BTC
Jan. 2015 0.65BTC       

What is your basis for claiming that that is a more "realistic" calculation? As said, my difficulty forecast is based on past performance. A static percentage increase that matches today but not the past nor the future, like the tradeblock calculator uses, is NOT realistic at all. There is not a chance in hell the difficulty will be anywhere near 135G come 2015.

You gotta be kidding RoadStress. 19 BTC from an August SP30 ?  Thats not an answer, thats a sales pitch.

Estimated Next Difficulty:   16,899,830,784 (+25.53%)

There has barely been any adjustments above 20% the last few months. This one (if it even is 25%, we won't know for another week) is clearly an anomaly and will be smoothed out with time.

[s1gs3gv]

There has barely been any adjustments above 20% the last few months. This one (if it even is 25%, we won't know for another week) is clearly an anomaly and will be smoothed out with time.

Unlikely. Very unlikely.

[Grix]

There has barely been any adjustments above 20% the last few months. This one (if it even is 25%, we won't know for another week) is clearly an anomaly and will be smoothed out with time.

Unlikely. Very unlikely.

How so? I find it more unlikely that a clear downward trend in difficulty growth that has lasted since fall last year would suddenly do a 180. I have the numbers on my side, I haven't seen any opposing evidence.

[Tupsu]

There has barely been any adjustments above 20% the last few months. This one (if it even is 25%, we won't know for another week) is clearly an anomaly and will be smoothed out with time.

Unlikely. Very unlikely.

How so? I find it more unlikely that a clear downward trend in difficulty growth that has lasted since fall last year would suddenly do a 180. I have the numbers on my side, I haven't seen any opposing evidence.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Difficulty History
Date    Difficulty    Change    Hash Rate


Jun 18 2014    13,462,580,115    14.51%    96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014    11,756,551,917    12.44%    84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014    10,455,720,138    18.10%    74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014    8,853,416,309    10.66%    63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014    8,000,872,136    14.64%    57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014    6,978,842,650    14.04%    49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014    6,119,726,089    22.23%    43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014    5,006,860,589    17.80%    35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014    4,250,217,920    11.39%    30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014    3,815,723,799    21.92%    27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014    3,129,573,175    19.39%    22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014    2,621,404,453    19.49%    18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014    2,193,847,870    22.59%    15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014    1,789,546,951    26.16%    12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014    1,418,481,395    20.12%    10,153,885 GH/s

[Grix]

There has barely been any adjustments above 20% the last few months. This one (if it even is 25%, we won't know for another week) is clearly an anomaly and will be smoothed out with time.

Unlikely. Very unlikely.

How so? I find it more unlikely that a clear downward trend in difficulty growth that has lasted since fall last year would suddenly do a 180. I have the numbers on my side, I haven't seen any opposing evidence.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Difficulty History
Date    Difficulty    Change    Hash Rate


Jun 18 2014    13,462,580,115    14.51%    96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014    11,756,551,917    12.44%    84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014    10,455,720,138    18.10%    74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014    8,853,416,309    10.66%    63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014    8,000,872,136    14.64%    57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014    6,978,842,650    14.04%    49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014    6,119,726,089    22.23%    43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014    5,006,860,589    17.80%    35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014    4,250,217,920    11.39%    30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014    3,815,723,799    21.92%    27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014    3,129,573,175    19.39%    22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014    2,621,404,453    19.49%    18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014    2,193,847,870    22.59%    15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014    1,789,546,951    26.16%    12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014    1,418,481,395    20.12%    10,153,885 GH/s

That seems to prove my point, what side are you arguing for?

[DrG]

There has barely been any adjustments above 20% the last few months. This one (if it even is 25%, we won't know for another week) is clearly an anomaly and will be smoothed out with time.

Unlikely. Very unlikely.

How so? I find it more unlikely that a clear downward trend in difficulty growth that has lasted since fall last year would suddenly do a 180. I have the numbers on my side, I haven't seen any opposing evidence.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Difficulty History
Date    Difficulty    Change    Hash Rate


Jun 18 2014    13,462,580,115    14.51%    96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014    11,756,551,917    12.44%    84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014    10,455,720,138    18.10%    74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014    8,853,416,309    10.66%    63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014    8,000,872,136    14.64%    57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014    6,978,842,650    14.04%    49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014    6,119,726,089    22.23%    43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014    5,006,860,589    17.80%    35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014    4,250,217,920    11.39%    30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014    3,815,723,799    21.92%    27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014    3,129,573,175    19.39%    22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014    2,621,404,453    19.49%    18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014    2,193,847,870    22.59%    15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014    1,789,546,951    26.16%    12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014    1,418,481,395    20.12%    10,153,885 GH/s

That seems to prove my point, what side are you arguing for?

Grix, look at the next estimated difficulty increase.  Neither Slush, BTCGuild, nor Bitminter had good luck in the last 48%, so we're looking at a 25-30% increase.  I don't know about after that, but this next one will be big!

[JoTheKhan]

Spon has said themselves that a manufacture had (and is continuing to add) about 40+ PH online recently. Now add in AM who should have by Mid July at the latest, moved 60 PH online (with more chips coming out) (Not sure how much of this is already online) through BTC-Garden, Rockminer, DM, XBtc and AM itself. Then you have Spon and their SP30s, Bitmain and their S3s. This not a cooling off period right now, this is an eye of a very serious storm that is just now getting ready to start back up.

After than we have AM's Gen 4, who knows what crazy shit Spon has in the bag, and a bunch of other companies getting a next Gen ready. And unlike last Gen, the jump to Gen ~4 will be a lot quicker and a lot smoother.

You guys are right that Diff will go up at a very slow pace, but when this time comes, individual miners ran by individual people will not be making money. Spon has made it clear that they aren't targeting the everyday miner either.

[RoadStress]

Spon has said themselves that a manufacture had (and is continuing to add) about 40+ PH online recently. Now add in AM who should have by Mid July at the latest, moved 60 PH online (with more chips coming out) (Not sure how much of this is already online) through BTC-Garden, Rockminer, DM, XBtc and AM itself. Then you have Spon and their SP30s, Bitmain and their S3s. This not a cooling off period right now, this is an eye of a very serious storm that is just now getting ready to start back up.

After than we have AM's Gen 4, who knows what crazy shit Spon has in the bag, and a bunch of other companies getting a next Gen ready. And unlike last Gen, the jump to Gen ~4 will be a lot quicker and a lot smoother.

You guys are right that Diff will go up at a very slow pace, but when this time comes, individual miners ran by individual people will not be making money. Spon has made it clear that they aren't targeting the everyday miner either.

I am 100% sure that AM will not bring online 60PH in the next 3 week. That's simply impossible.

[DrG]

Spon has said themselves that a manufacture had (and is continuing to add) about 40+ PH online recently. Now add in AM who should have by Mid July at the latest, moved 60 PH online (with more chips coming out) (Not sure how much of this is already online) through BTC-Garden, Rockminer, DM, XBtc and AM itself. Then you have Spon and their SP30s, Bitmain and their S3s. This not a cooling off period right now, this is an eye of a very serious storm that is just now getting ready to start back up.

After than we have AM's Gen 4, who knows what crazy shit Spon has in the bag, and a bunch of other companies getting a next Gen ready. And unlike last Gen, the jump to Gen ~4 will be a lot quicker and a lot smoother.

You guys are right that Diff will go up at a very slow pace, but when this time comes, individual miners ran by individual people will not be making money. Spon has made it clear that they aren't targeting the everyday miner either.

I am 100% sure that AM will not bring online 60PH in the next 3 week. That's simply impossible.

I think he meant total network effect of all the AM chips that AM has sent out to different manufacturers that he listed.  Each one of those just needs to do 15PH/s which is not unreasonable if they are less than 1W per GH/s.  Not only are the assemblers of ASICs but also the chip manufacturers are making money and distributing it.  Yifu, that rat, is probably somewhere in there too.

[opentoe]

All the ROI calculators indicate you most likely won't break even on an SP30 September batch. If you end up hosting it, then that's a definite not it will break even. I was being conservative with the diff increase also. Their SP10 is a great machine, but I was able to put that online 5 days after paying for it.