SP30 Cost recouping was Re: [ANN] Spondoolies-Tech - Best W/GH/s ratio, Best $/GH/s ratio

[Grix]

There has barely been any adjustments above 20% the last few months. This one (if it even is 25%, we won't know for another week) is clearly an anomaly and will be smoothed out with time.

Unlikely. Very unlikely.

How so? I find it more unlikely that a clear downward trend in difficulty growth that has lasted since fall last year would suddenly do a 180. I have the numbers on my side, I haven't seen any opposing evidence.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Difficulty History
Date    Difficulty    Change    Hash Rate


Jun 18 2014    13,462,580,115    14.51%    96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014    11,756,551,917    12.44%    84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014    10,455,720,138    18.10%    74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014    8,853,416,309    10.66%    63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014    8,000,872,136    14.64%    57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014    6,978,842,650    14.04%    49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014    6,119,726,089    22.23%    43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014    5,006,860,589    17.80%    35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014    4,250,217,920    11.39%    30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014    3,815,723,799    21.92%    27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014    3,129,573,175    19.39%    22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014    2,621,404,453    19.49%    18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014    2,193,847,870    22.59%    15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014    1,789,546,951    26.16%    12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014    1,418,481,395    20.12%    10,153,885 GH/s

That seems to prove my point, what side are you arguing for?

[DrG]

There has barely been any adjustments above 20% the last few months. This one (if it even is 25%, we won't know for another week) is clearly an anomaly and will be smoothed out with time.

Unlikely. Very unlikely.

How so? I find it more unlikely that a clear downward trend in difficulty growth that has lasted since fall last year would suddenly do a 180. I have the numbers on my side, I haven't seen any opposing evidence.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Difficulty History
Date    Difficulty    Change    Hash Rate


Jun 18 2014    13,462,580,115    14.51%    96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014    11,756,551,917    12.44%    84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014    10,455,720,138    18.10%    74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014    8,853,416,309    10.66%    63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014    8,000,872,136    14.64%    57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014    6,978,842,650    14.04%    49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014    6,119,726,089    22.23%    43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014    5,006,860,589    17.80%    35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014    4,250,217,920    11.39%    30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014    3,815,723,799    21.92%    27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014    3,129,573,175    19.39%    22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014    2,621,404,453    19.49%    18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014    2,193,847,870    22.59%    15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014    1,789,546,951    26.16%    12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014    1,418,481,395    20.12%    10,153,885 GH/s

That seems to prove my point, what side are you arguing for?

Grix, look at the next estimated difficulty increase.  Neither Slush, BTCGuild, nor Bitminter had good luck in the last 48%, so we're looking at a 25-30% increase.  I don't know about after that, but this next one will be big!

[JoTheKhan]

Spon has said themselves that a manufacture had (and is continuing to add) about 40+ PH online recently. Now add in AM who should have by Mid July at the latest, moved 60 PH online (with more chips coming out) (Not sure how much of this is already online) through BTC-Garden, Rockminer, DM, XBtc and AM itself. Then you have Spon and their SP30s, Bitmain and their S3s. This not a cooling off period right now, this is an eye of a very serious storm that is just now getting ready to start back up.

After than we have AM's Gen 4, who knows what crazy shit Spon has in the bag, and a bunch of other companies getting a next Gen ready. And unlike last Gen, the jump to Gen ~4 will be a lot quicker and a lot smoother.

You guys are right that Diff will go up at a very slow pace, but when this time comes, individual miners ran by individual people will not be making money. Spon has made it clear that they aren't targeting the everyday miner either.

[RoadStress]

Spon has said themselves that a manufacture had (and is continuing to add) about 40+ PH online recently. Now add in AM who should have by Mid July at the latest, moved 60 PH online (with more chips coming out) (Not sure how much of this is already online) through BTC-Garden, Rockminer, DM, XBtc and AM itself. Then you have Spon and their SP30s, Bitmain and their S3s. This not a cooling off period right now, this is an eye of a very serious storm that is just now getting ready to start back up.

After than we have AM's Gen 4, who knows what crazy shit Spon has in the bag, and a bunch of other companies getting a next Gen ready. And unlike last Gen, the jump to Gen ~4 will be a lot quicker and a lot smoother.

You guys are right that Diff will go up at a very slow pace, but when this time comes, individual miners ran by individual people will not be making money. Spon has made it clear that they aren't targeting the everyday miner either.

I am 100% sure that AM will not bring online 60PH in the next 3 week. That's simply impossible.

[DrG]

Spon has said themselves that a manufacture had (and is continuing to add) about 40+ PH online recently. Now add in AM who should have by Mid July at the latest, moved 60 PH online (with more chips coming out) (Not sure how much of this is already online) through BTC-Garden, Rockminer, DM, XBtc and AM itself. Then you have Spon and their SP30s, Bitmain and their S3s. This not a cooling off period right now, this is an eye of a very serious storm that is just now getting ready to start back up.

After than we have AM's Gen 4, who knows what crazy shit Spon has in the bag, and a bunch of other companies getting a next Gen ready. And unlike last Gen, the jump to Gen ~4 will be a lot quicker and a lot smoother.

You guys are right that Diff will go up at a very slow pace, but when this time comes, individual miners ran by individual people will not be making money. Spon has made it clear that they aren't targeting the everyday miner either.

I am 100% sure that AM will not bring online 60PH in the next 3 week. That's simply impossible.

I think he meant total network effect of all the AM chips that AM has sent out to different manufacturers that he listed.  Each one of those just needs to do 15PH/s which is not unreasonable if they are less than 1W per GH/s.  Not only are the assemblers of ASICs but also the chip manufacturers are making money and distributing it.  Yifu, that rat, is probably somewhere in there too.

[opentoe]

All the ROI calculators indicate you most likely won't break even on an SP30 September batch. If you end up hosting it, then that's a definite not it will break even. I was being conservative with the diff increase also. Their SP10 is a great machine, but I was able to put that online 5 days after paying for it.