The chart thread -- predict the price out to 2014

[ineededausername]

Serious charts only, please.  (as in, you honestly believe it has >10% chance of happening)
You must draw only one line per chart, all the way out to January 1, 2014!  (or as far as you can draw it without hitting $50)

Base chart:


Sadly, this chart is limited to the <$50 range... nothing I can do about that.

Draw away!  I will be looking at all of the charts in the future, and if I find a particularly accurate one (or enough people nominate one), I will be sending a 5 BTC tip

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[mb300sd]

[Hunterbunter]

[Bro]

give a template please

edit: ah I didnt see the scroll bar, sorry

here's mine:

[naima53]

i am seriously, this very may be

[waspoza]

+1

At the end of this year there will be huge bubble.

[Bro]

At the end of this year there will be huge bubble.

Why ?

we're assuming there will be more demand because of the 50% drop in the rate of bitcoin production (not too sure about wording here), on top of which there could easily be a speculative bubble

[proudhon]

having a bubble and then busting is money grabbing so there is all world incentive to make a bubble and then burst it

Yeah!  Let's fuck this thing up!

[N12]

Yeah!  Let's fuck this thing up!

I bet you it will happen again eventually.

Just watch out for the Bruce Wagner indicator and you know what’s up.

[waspoza]

At the end of this year there will be huge bubble.

Why ?

Before block reward halving ppl will be like OMG no more coins, grab em while u still can!!!1 And price will go on secret rocket. 

[proudhon]

At the end of this year there will be huge bubble.

Why ?

Before block reward halving ppl will be like OMG no more coins, grab em while u still can!!!1 And price will go on secret rocket. 

I don't think that's going to happen.

[waspoza]

At the end of this year there will be huge bubble.

Why ?

Before block reward halving ppl will be like OMG no more coins, grab em while u still can!!!1 And price will go on secret rocket. 

I don't think that's going to happen.

Its very probable imo. Especially with a little help from media with headlines like "Soon bitcoin producion will be cut in half", people will start thinking to jumping on board hoping to make nice profit.

[Technomage]

The reward split will undoubtedly cause an increase in price. I don't see how it wouldn't, it essentially halves the inflation rate of Bitcoin. That will boost market confidence regarding the value of bitcoins.

How big of an increase it will cause, that is a good question. I guess we'll see.

[Bro]

I think the floor is pretty solid between 2$ and 4$, with plenty of people ready to buy all the cheap coins, and that won't change with the reward drop. So if there's big fluctuations it will be between that and 10$.

Can anyone come up with a theory of how the 50% reward drop could lower the prices?

[proudhon]

I think the floor is pretty solid between 2$ and 4$, with plenty of people ready to buy all the cheap coins, and that won't change with the reward drop. So if there's big fluctuations it will be between that and 10$.

Can anyone come up with a theory of how the 50% reward drop could lower the prices?

There is no solid floor in bitcoin.  It's risk all the way down.

[DeathAndTaxes]

This might very well lead to huge oscillations rather than an actual
bubble. I wish Satoshi had built a smoothly decaying reward curve
instead of these horrible 50% hard steps.

Hindsight but this.  I guess some of the "fear" and uncertainty comes from it never having happened before.  The subsequent drops should produce less ripples.  It could have been mostly avoided with an exponential decay function.  Say dropping 10% every 26,208 blocks (13 difficulty adjustments or ~6 months).

Today block reward would be ~32 BTC per block and this summer it would be ~29 BTC per block and we would hit the ~25 BTC per block around the same time but after having gone through 5 prior smaller drops.  The first drop would have been the largest and even that would have been only 5 BTC.

Oh well. Hindsight.

[Bro]

There is no solid floor in bitcoin.  It's risk all the way down.

only if a glitch is discovered
like they are now, bitcoins are useful and have a commodity value, so there is some sort of floor

[bitcoinBull]

I think the floor is pretty solid between 2$ and 4$, with plenty of people ready to buy all the cheap coins, and that won't change with the reward drop. So if there's big fluctuations it will be between that and 10$.

Can anyone come up with a theory of how the 50% reward drop could lower the prices?

There is no solid floor in bitcoin.  It's risk all the way down.

The floor is related to exchange volume.  The only way price can go "all the way down" would be if volume fades to a trickle.

In order for someone with a short position to take a profit, they have to buy back in.  Don't forget that.

[Hunterbunter]

And to be fair to The Man : he did anticipate a very large number
of future aspects of bitcoin and engineered accordingly.

As a matter of fact, in terms of anticipating problems the system would
face and designing accordingly, I find his feat so amazing that it has lead
me to strongly suspect "Satoshi" to be an actual team of people: a single
guy designing in a vacuum something so deeply rooted in the practical
just doesn't compute.

I quite agree with you...there is far too much super-brain here for one person...even Einstein had people look over his numbers. The sudden disappearance and everything else leans towards orchestration, imho, not necessarily with sinister motives, however.

And for the thread: CHARTS OR IT DIDN'T HAPPEN. plsktnkubai.

[Elwar]

Honest assessment. A lot of up and down through the summer, a lot of second guessing and jumping around going up until the end of 2013 when mining pay out halves, then a steady climb up with some drops followed by steady climb to 50 by 2014.