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Author Topic: BTC endgame = Mega Miner controlling everything, BTC is not "trustless"  (Read 5335 times)
iluvpie60 (OP)
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June 25, 2014, 01:09:12 PM
Last edit: June 27, 2014, 12:55:24 PM by iluvpie60
 #1

The more and more I see the difficulty shoot up to ridiculous levels, the more and more I see the major flaw in BTC. In the end there is nothing stopping a Mega Mining operations from doing whatever they want. Here is why I feel this way.

http://hackingdistributed.com/2014/06/16/how-a-mining-monopoly-can-attack-bitcoin/ <-cred and props to these guys for writing this.

A Mega Mining operations says "trust us", their name is Ghash.io(this violates the trust-less nature of what BTC is supposed to be)...

They say they will "not do a 51% attack", although they could at any time.

"""GHash actually had a fairly sustained 55% last weekend, and there is no reason why it couldn't be, say, 80%. So a 1-confirmation transaction would suddenly take 40 minutes instead of 10."""

Other miners will soon start going out of business (and have been already) and stop mining completely at some point, which will leave Ghash.io or whatever Mega Miners remain to have almost total control.

Now I know a lot of people in these forums always try to play the emotional game(while they try and say it is logical) of "A Mega Miner serves itself better by keeping BTC alive and not doing 51% attacks". That might be true for the time being, but what about years from now? There will be a point where someone gets up to 60% or 70% or even 80% or higher. There will be no room for smaller operations, it will be controlled, therefore changes can be made in their favor. We all know what happens when people get control of something, with great power comes great corruption. There is no law that prevents a Mega Miner from screwing anyone over. In the end it will most likely not be worth it for the Mega Miner to continue, hence where the screwing over comes in. Double spending, not validating transactions, black listing people, big fees if they feel like it(or else your transaction doesn't get processed).

But why doesn't everyone "just choose not to accept those miners". Good question, not everyone knows anything about that and then where do you really go when everything is shut down? The community isn't going to pay hundreds of millions of dollars to hire and create a new Mega Mining operation that could just turn around and screw them over again anyway.

BTC is a very good step forward in the direction of the future of currency. But we all can't sit around and claim BTC is the best when such fatally obvious flaws exist. I don't see any way to fix it, and when quantum computing comes out prepare to really get effed by a Mega Miner. It is not like a Mega Miner needs to screw everyone over royally, it is just that "trusting" them is what BTC is not about.


Extreme Example:

Miner A has 65%
Miner B has 30%
Miner C has 5%

So in this example of the near future or a few years away future, Miner A is control now. Guess what? Everyone agrees to raise the threshold to 71% besides Miner A, but guess what? Miner A does not accept the change so it does not go through. So you see how it would be harder and harder to update the BTC protocol further into the future...


What happens if Miner B and C accept the change? Chaos.


New Block Chain formed that lots of people go to, but some still at Miner A(the dumb people).

Miner B now has about 85% of total miner power
Miner C now has 15% of total miner power.

Miner B controls the network now instead of Miner A, threshold is again voted to be raised to a 91% attack is now needed to double spend...

See how the problem just keeps going with stupid things like this? It needs to be changed to a higher number NOW before the Miners become a more powerful oligopoly.


Miners don't always have to act in the best interests of anyone... Look at MTGOX and other countless examples. Hacking can easily ruin miners too, why not?


People used to think it was impossible to get into space, the earth was flat, that certain races are dumber, that the everything revolves around the earth, even BTC people say is impossible until someone thought of it... etc...

I wouldn't give up hope on an updated protocol that solves more issues, it isn't impossible to make BTC better, it isn't impossible to change the protocol and add new features/voting system based on "X" where x is a section of code that now also validates "BLAH" and confirms "YADDA YADDA".


Tell me, why is it better that Ghash.io can do everything it wants? Why isn't it better to have a floating variable that determines lets say the top 5 Mining Pools and makes them all confirm something instead? How is having one thing in charge better than 5? A system needs to be put into place where more than one mining pool can agree with the others and validate, and if a pool is abusing its power there should also be something that makes gives them consequences for doing so. The logic can and must be expanded to account for the future.
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June 25, 2014, 01:15:24 PM
 #2

Sorry to disagree with u. I can see the future in P2Pool. P2Pool code is now open and group of miners are joining various new P2Pool. GHash.IO will lead for some more days ...but ultimately they'll surrender to cumulative miner hashpower in P2Pools. In past, we have seen deepbit to vanish after they touched 51%. Nothing is permanent in the Bitcoin world except competition. Smiley

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June 25, 2014, 01:22:58 PM
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It must be fun to have such an active imagination...
Or were you using a crystal ball on this one?

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iluvpie60 (OP)
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June 25, 2014, 01:49:54 PM
 #4

It must be fun to have such an active imagination...
Or were you using a crystal ball on this one?

You can still redeem yourself by educating yourself.

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Backfire_effect

The backfire effect occurs when, in the face of contradictory evidence, established beliefs do not change but actually get stronger. The effect has been demonstrated experimentally in psychological tests, where subjects are given data that either reinforces or goes against their existing biases - and in most cases people can be shown to increase their confidence in their prior position regardless of the evidence they were faced with.
iluvpie60 (OP)
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June 25, 2014, 01:54:16 PM
 #5

Sorry to disagree with u. I can see the future in P2Pool. P2Pool code is now open and group of miners are joining various new P2Pool. GHash.IO will lead for some more days ...but ultimately they'll surrender to cumulative miner hashpower in P2Pools. In past, we have seen deepbit to vanish after they touched 51%. Nothing is permanent in the Bitcoin world except competition. Smiley

It is all well and great if a bunch of miners join P2P pool, but I am willing to bet you the Mega Miners who spend millions on their machines are not going to give up control to P2P pool. That is the problem I see with what you are saying. Ghash.io is already set to move forward and take even more, there is an unknown % of hashing power out there and many people speculate and seem to be right about it being Ghash.io covering it up to look "unknown". In reality they have hit 51% before a few times on their "Ghash.io" branded servers. Who knows what their other miners are called, only they do, hence the "Unknown %" issue. They most likely have been doing 60% or higher this whole time and just haven't done much yet, there was double spends before through them.
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June 25, 2014, 02:20:37 PM
 #6

In past, we have seen deepbit to vanish after they touched 51%. Nothing is permanent in the Bitcoin world except competition. Smiley

This. Hopefully GHash.IO miners consider choosing alternatives to help Bitcoin. About core GHash.IO hardware, it will not stop as long as it is profitable, obviously with same Bitcoin price and continuous difficulty increase there is a point where power bill is higher than mining Bitcoins, and big mining operations cannot afford pay the huge power bills while home Bitcoin supporteers can afford continue to mine in expectation of future Bitcoin price + Bitcoin support

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June 25, 2014, 04:00:47 PM
 #7

A Mega Mining operations says "trust us", their name is Ghash.io(this violates the trust-less nature of what BTC is supposed to be)...

They say they will "not do a 51% attack", although they could at any time.

One cannot perform a 51% attack unless one has 51% of the network. Today, 2014 Jun 25, the day you express your woe, here is the reality of the situation:

https://blockchain.info/pools

(following is edit - somehow I saved before including the diagram)



Safe for the time being.

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iluvpie60 (OP)
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June 26, 2014, 01:07:17 AM
 #8

A Mega Mining operations says "trust us", their name is Ghash.io(this violates the trust-less nature of what BTC is supposed to be)...

They say they will "not do a 51% attack", although they could at any time.

One cannot perform a 51% attack unless one has 51% of the network. Today, 2014 Jun 25, the day you express your woe, here is the reality of the situation:

https://blockchain.info/pools

(following is edit - somehow I saved before including the diagram)



Safe for the time being.

Within the past 7 days they were over 51%. This daily chart is meaningless for your example of "trying to prove me wrong". They have been past 51% before as well. Do your homework mister, see my after class, D-.
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June 26, 2014, 01:10:06 AM
 #9

If you think GHash.io is big, wait til you see IBM, VISA, China, Iceland, etc mining.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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June 26, 2014, 02:23:58 AM
 #10

Within the past 7 days they were over 51%. This daily chart is meaningless for your example of "trying to prove me wrong". They have been past 51% before as well. Do your homework mister, see my after class, D-.

You so cute. ::mwah::

Your statement was that they could amount a 51% attack at any time.

They do not currently have 51%. Ergo, they cannot currently mount a 51% attack. Therefore, they cannot mount a 51% attack at any time.

Sorry. You made a false statement. Happens to us all from time to time. Get over it.

Anyone with a campaign ad in their signature -- for an organization with which they are not otherwise affiliated -- is automatically deducted credibility points.

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June 26, 2014, 02:35:08 AM
 #11

If you think GHash.io is big, wait til you see IBM, VISA, China, Iceland, etc mining.

LOL ....

All these 51% threads are still better than "ASIC will KILL btc" threads.... dont you agree?


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June 26, 2014, 03:20:51 AM
 #12

If you think GHash.io is big, wait til you see IBM, VISA, China, Iceland, etc mining.

LOL ....

All these 51% threads are still better than "ASIC will KILL btc" threads.... dont you agree?



Competition is healthy for business, and it's healthy for Bitcoin. There will be more competition as the base grows and things will average out.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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June 26, 2014, 11:07:55 AM
 #13

If you think GHash.io is big, wait til you see IBM, VISA, China, Iceland, etc mining.

yes ... the main industry with the hellfire debt on it.
they only can buy what they can exchange pay for service.
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June 26, 2014, 11:16:24 AM
 #14

i hate to say it but i think it foolish to think large corporations are not allready involved

they may not come out and make a public statement about it but anyone who now controls the worlds money supply or charges for financial services

and is cheating the world would hedge their position and be involved in bticoin mining by this point because they leave nothing to chance


If you think GHash.io is big, wait til you see IBM, VISA, China, Iceland, etc mining.

yes ... the main industry with the hellfire debt on it.
they only can buy what they can exchange pay for service.

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June 26, 2014, 11:39:36 AM
 #15

OP stop trying to spread FUD. This was talked over multiple times.
It's a flaw in the protocol, but a problem caused by the miners themselves.

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June 26, 2014, 11:47:45 AM
 #16

Pure logic suggest that this is the case. In years to come, mega miner will control 99% mining power.
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June 26, 2014, 11:53:12 AM
 #17

it is quite possible

right now any one pool is not a threat but think long term 5, 10 , 20 years from now,

if bitcoins destiny is to become a medium of trust for the entire world to base itself upon the ground work will be laid now for what is to come

i recall other large operations (the guild) getting close to 50% and volunteering to back off,  not this time

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iluvpie60 (OP)
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June 26, 2014, 01:10:01 PM
 #18

Within the past 7 days they were over 51%. This daily chart is meaningless for your example of "trying to prove me wrong". They have been past 51% before as well. Do your homework mister, see my after class, D-.

You so cute. ::mwah::

Your statement was that they could amount a 51% attack at any time.

They do not currently have 51%. Ergo, they cannot currently mount a 51% attack. Therefore, they cannot mount a 51% attack at any time.

Sorry. You made a false statement. Happens to us all from time to time. Get over it.

So you are telling me in the span of one day when Ghash lowered themselves from the 55% they were at, and put themselves at about 38%, that they couldn't turn everything on again?

Jesus Christ you are a smart one. rofl...

I give you an F- now. If that is even possible. I mean honestly, try thinking in more than a few dimensions... Even logically to someone in like 5th grade you could have a word problem that says, "If Ghash.io has 55% for a day and they voluntarily turn it down to 38%, could they turn it on again to 55%?"

Answer Choice:

A: Yes
B: No

Jesus H man. Get ahold of your logic!
iluvpie60 (OP)
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June 26, 2014, 01:11:19 PM
 #19

OP stop trying to spread FUD. This was talked over multiple times.
It's a flaw in the protocol, but a problem caused by the miners themselves.


I love when people just say "stop saying something".

Nice counterpoint by saying "OP is wrong". lol so much smartnessssss
iluvpie60 (OP)
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June 26, 2014, 01:18:22 PM
 #20

it is quite possible

right now any one pool is not a threat but think long term 5, 10 , 20 years from now,

if bitcoins destiny is to become a medium of trust for the entire world to base itself upon the ground work will be laid now for what is to come

i recall other large operations (the guild) getting close to 50% and volunteering to back off,  not this time

I guess my question is why it has to be set as the majority >= 50%?

In other types of determining a majority, some things are done at a 2/3 majority. Is there a real reason we need to have it at 50%? What is stopping a change to make it say 80%?

You make a good point of one pool isn't that bad right now because there still are some other big pools who can take over. I just feel like it is really odd that it isn't change to a higher % right now so we can avoid any further issues. once Ghash.io gets up to 70% things could get pretty ugly and they might not accept the change once they get too big.
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