Stop talking about the damn SR coins - it is the LEAST significant price mover

[TERA]

Everywhere I look I keep hearing people complaining about the price and blaming the auction and the auction only, and thinking that everything hinges on what price the coins are sold at. It is silly.

Right before the descent in early June, there were not one but THREE significant news events - it wasn't just the auction. There was also an article released in China by central bankers of how they were going to keep track of and close down accounts that were being used for recharge codes.  After that there was GHash.io reaching 51%. There are even aspects of the auction itself which are more significant than the coins themselves being sold. I'll explain each of these:

1. China: There was news about further crackdowns on deposit methods to Chinese exchanges including recharge codes. Now, I don't care how many times people try to dismiss China or call it 'FUD' - China is very significant. China is the world's most populated country with 20% of the worlds population, is one of the world's largest economies, and most importantly it contains the world's largest shadow currency trading market where high rollers throw around trillions of dollars on a regular basis to gamble on shadow currencies (mostly BANs - notes from banks). It is also happens to contain half of Bitcoin's exchanges which appears to do 5-10 times as much volume as the other half. There are some questions about the legitimacy of the volume but a safe guess is that the legitimate volume should be at least as much as the 'west', which is still highly significant. You can't just take something involving at least half of Bitcoin's trading economy and dismiss it. Any news about China is going to be very important for Bitcoin (in the short term at least) whether you like it or not. At the very least, it is much more significant than the auction.

2. GHash: The pool reached 51% for the first time and nothing was done about it for a while until a big player finally voluntarily pulled some power out of it.  This raised questions about the viability of Bitcoin and the nature of the community and caused some major players to become bearish. Some whales decided they were going to sell half of their holdings. The amount of bitcoins being dumped over this probably trumps the 30K bitcoins being sold at the auction. In addition, future investors have become somewhat dissuaded and there will be some degree less new investment in the future. All in all, it is a much more significant event than the auction.

3. The Auction. Even within the auction itself there are more significant things to consider than the 30k coins themselves being sold and their effect on the market.  Anything involving the government doing something adverse leaves a bearish taste in investors. "Why is the government selling? Has the government become bearish on Bitcoin?"
- "What does the government know that we don't? Have they found some exploit in the protocol? Have they run some study and found that there is no way technically or economically that bitcoin could possibly work?"
- "Has the NSA broken EC already but it is top secret?"
- "Does the government plan on banning Bitcoin?"
- "Are they going to dump their other 500,000 coins?
I'm not saying any of those are true but it might be what is running through certain people's heads which would account for a reduction in new investment which is more significant than the coins themselves being sold.

I understand many of you may object to some, or many, or all of these points, and that is fine... Maybe none of these things are really that significant in the long run. However, that is not my point. They don't have to be that important - just more important than the auction. My entire point is that there are many things that have occured lately that are much more important than the impact of 30K coins hitting that market and at what price these 30K coins are going to be bought. This is an inisificant matter and something like that wouldn't have caused a downward slide this severe and this long. 30K coins are... a mere 0.22% of coins - it is nothing. Get over it. Please stop talking about those coins.

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[bitcoinsrus]

I agree with the post. I think many make threads about it (including me) mainly because of the uncertainty of what might happen. Right now its dropping. Some say it will push the price up, some say down. I am sure when this mess is over (when the winners pay some time in July) and its factored into the price, we will discuss the new issue.

[akujin]

Where did they get the 500k coins?

[Melbustus]

Yeah, we know.

And all the positive news lately trumps all the negative anyways, including the perceived negativity of the auction. But people are stupid and the bitcoin market is fickle; 30,000 BTC sounds like a scary potential dump to the 17 year-old crypto "traders" around here.

[TERA]

Where did they get the 500k coins?

There are silkroad's coins, Ross's personal coins, and also the coins from some other dealer they arrested. It actually might be much more than 500k. Maybe 1M.

[Dragonkiller]

Where did they get the 500k coins?

There are silkroad's coins, Ross's personal coins, and also the coins from some other dealer they arrested. It actually might be much more than 500k. Maybe 1M.

Source? I thought it was 140,000

[jbrnt]

10 batches of roughly 3,000btc each will be auctioned. Totaling 29,657btc. Not sure about the rest.

Potential bidders of those SR coins want to buy them as cheaply as possible. So they are dumping their coins-in-hand on the exchanges, lowering the maximum other bidders are willing to pay. After the last batch of coins is auctioned, bitcoin price will start to rise again.

[TERA]

Where did they get the 500k coins?

There are silkroad's coins, Ross's personal coins, and also the coins from some other dealer they arrested. It actually might be much more than 500k. Maybe 1M.

Source? I thought it was 140,000

140,000 is just the site wallet for silkroad users.  Then there is Ross's 400k and about 400k from that dealer which occured more recently.

[TERA]

10 batches of roughly 3,000btc each will be auctioned.

Potential bidders of those SR coins want to buy them as cheaply as possible. So they are dumping their coins-in-hand on the exchanges, lowering the maximum other bidders are willing to pay. After the last batch of coins is auctioned, bitcoin price will start to rise again.

Nobody is participating in an international market manipulation conspiracy (which might not even be profitable) so that they can acquire 3,000*[1-9] bitcoins from the U.S. Marshall for their investment firm.

[st4nl3y]

Where did they get the 500k coins?

There are silkroad's coins, Ross's personal coins, and also the coins from some other dealer they arrested. It actually might be much more than 500k. Maybe 1M.

Source? I thought it was 140,000

140,000 is just the site wallet for silkroad users.  Then there is Ross's 400k and about 400k from that dealer which occured more recently.

are you sure? isn't 30k going for sale now bitcoins from the site wallet and users and 140k is ross ulbricht personal stash?

[TERA]

Where did they get the 500k coins?

There are silkroad's coins, Ross's personal coins, and also the coins from some other dealer they arrested. It actually might be much more than 500k. Maybe 1M.

Source? I thought it was 140,000

140,000 is just the site wallet for silkroad users.  Then there is Ross's 400k and about 400k from that dealer which occured more recently.

are you sure? isn't 30k going for sale now bitcoins from the site wallet and users and 140k is ross ulbricht personal stash?

You know what - I'm not 100% sure. My apologies if it is incorrect. Whatever the total amount is, it is much bigger than 30K. I seem to recall hearing 'The government now owns 5% of bitcoins' somewhere.

[jbrnt]

Nobody is participating in an international market manipulation conspiracy (which might not even be profitable) so that they can acquire 3,000*[1-9] bitcoins from the U.S. Marshall for their investment firm.

The selling pressure is really strong for the past 24 hours, Is it a coincidence?

[Swordsoffreedom]

The auction is just the easiest one to follow
Just hold for a few more days and the auction will be out of the news after the bids list is publicized.
But your right there are more factors and more volume a day than just from the SR auction.

[Benjig]

I dont think that the government will auction something before banning it, its like scamming, if they would want to ban bitcoin they had destroyed the coins, what an absurd bear theory.

[TERA]

Nobody is participating in an international market manipulation conspiracy (which might not even be profitable) so that they can acquire 3,000*[1-9] bitcoins from the U.S. Marshall for their investment firm.

The selling pressure is really strong for the past 24 hours, Is it a coincidence?

Actually the selling pressure is not strong. There is a lack of buying pressure. Stamp and finex each have 10K volume and btce has 5K volume. These volume levels are very low. It is more of a reflection of a loss of faith by investors.

[Benjig]

Where did they get the 500k coins?

There are silkroad's coins, Ross's personal coins, and also the coins from some other dealer they arrested. It actually might be much more than 500k. Maybe 1M.

Source? I thought it was 140,000

140,000 is just the site wallet for silkroad users.  Then there is Ross's 400k and about 400k from that dealer which occured more recently.

I knew that the 25-30k was the hot wallet and the 140 k was personal Ross wallet, where is the source of that claim about 500k coins, you are talking like if ross were satoshi himself  

[windjc]

Everywhere I look I keep hearing people complaining about the price and blaming the auction and the auction only, and thinking that everything hinges on what price the coins are sold at. It is silly.

Right before the descent in early June, there were not one but THREE significant news events - it wasn't just the auction. There was also an article released in China by central bankers of how they were going to keep track of and close down accounts that were being used for recharge codes.  After that there was GHash.io reaching 51%. There are even aspects of the auction itself which are more significant than the coins themselves being sold. I'll explain each of these:

1. China: There was news about further crackdowns on deposit methods to Chinese exchanges including recharge codes. Now, I don't care how many times people try to dismiss China or call it 'FUD' - China is very significant. China is the world's most populated country with 20% of the worlds population, is one of the world's largest economies, and most importantly it contains the world's largest shadow currency trading market where high rollers throw around trillions of dollars on a regular basis to gamble on shadow currencies (mostly BANs - notes from banks). It is also happens to contain half of Bitcoin's exchanges which appears to do 5-10 times as much volume as the other half. There are some questions about the legitimacy of the volume but a safe guess is that the legitimate volume should be at least as much as the 'west', which is still highly significant. You can't just take something involving at least half of Bitcoin's trading economy and dismiss it. Any news about China is going to be very important for Bitcoin (in the short term at least) whether you like it or not. At the very least, it is much more significant than the auction.

2. GHash: The pool reached 51% for the first time and nothing was done about it for a while until a big player finally voluntarily pulled some power out of it.  This raised questions about the viability of Bitcoin and the nature of the community and caused some major players to become bearish. Some whales decided they were going to sell half of their holdings. The amount of bitcoins being dumped over this probably trumps the 30K bitcoins being sold at the auction. In addition, future investors have become somewhat dissuaded and there will be some degree less new investment in the future. All in all, it is a much more significant event than the auction.

3. The Auction. Even within the auction itself there are more significant things to consider than the 30k coins themselves being sold and their effect on the market.  Anything involving the government doing something adverse leaves a bearish taste in investors. "Why is the government selling? Has the government become bearish on Bitcoin?"
- "What does the government know that we don't? Have they found some exploit in the protocol? Have they run some study and found that there is no way technically or economically that bitcoin could possibly work?"
- "Has the NSA broken EC already but it is top secret?"
- "Does the government plan on banning Bitcoin?"
- "Are they going to dump their other 500,000 coins?
I'm not saying any of those are true but it might be what is running through certain people's heads which would account for a reduction in new investment which is more significant than the coins themselves being sold.

I understand many of you may object to some, or many, or all of these points, and that is fine... Maybe none of these things are really that significant in the long run. However, that is not my point. They don't have to be that important - just more important than the auction. My entire point is that there are many things that have occured lately that are much more important than the impact of 30K coins hitting that market and at what price these 30K coins are going to be bought. This is an inisificant matter and something like that wouldn't have caused a downward slide this severe and this long. 30K coins are... a mere 0.22% of coins - it is nothing. Get over it. Please stop talking about those coins.

I'm not sure the point of this post. The auction is definitely the current biggest market influencer. All the other stuff is what it is. But its the auction that has everything on hold.

[kireinaha]

Good points. For the first time, mining centralization is happening and raises very serious questions about bitcoin fundamentals. If we only hit the 51% red zone with Ghash once and dropped back down soon after, this may have not even become a serious concern. But the fact that it keeps happening every few weeks is huge... and nobody has any idea how to stop it from happening. I think we've crossed a line here, and people are only beginning to truly realize it. The auction is just a distraction.

[Miz4r]

I think the auction is by far the most significant price mover at the moment. It's not because 30k coins is going to increase the supply of coins or the fear that they will be dumped afterwards, but it's more the fact that the interested parties want to lower the price on the exchanges to get a better price on the auction. And because people expect these parties to do this it will almost create a self-fulfilling prophecy already.

[Dragonkiller]

Where did they get the 500k coins?

There are silkroad's coins, Ross's personal coins, and also the coins from some other dealer they arrested. It actually might be much more than 500k. Maybe 1M.

Source? I thought it was 140,000

140,000 is just the site wallet for silkroad users.  Then there is Ross's 400k and about 400k from that dealer which occured more recently.

are you sure? isn't 30k going for sale now bitcoins from the site wallet and users and 140k is ross ulbricht personal stash?

You know what - I'm not 100% sure. My apologies if it is incorrect. Whatever the total amount is, it is much bigger than 30K. I seem to recall hearing 'The government now owns 5% of bitcoins' somewhere.

AFAIK the 30k is from the Silk Road and there is another other 140k that is from Ross Ulbricht.