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[Devin Chow]

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[1713416912]

1713416912

[lay785]

in your dreams. It will probably sell for way less. I dare you to bet on betmoose if youre so confident.

[blatchcorn]

in your dreams. It will probably sell for way less. I dare you to bet on betmoose if youre so confident.

Ignore this bear.

It makes far more sense for the coins to sell above the market value, rather than below

[Bitcopia]

Wow you're an optimistic one! It's not farfetched that some of the bids might be above market price, but no one is going to bid significantly higher. If the public learns that one purchaser decided to pay $200 over current market price, well, they're probably going to just think that purchaser is crazy. There are plenty of off-exchange methods for buying coins without moving markets.

But just to entertain your idea, there are only 16,000 BTC up for sale on Bitstamp. Therefore, a 30,000 BTC market order would push the price up over 5k! However, this impossible scenario would be followed with a swift and mighty correction.

[kireinaha]

yes, rich investors are lining up to overpay for an asset that they can buy at market value just like anyone else from a common exchange (note... they don't have to order all at once...) or from an offline seller. come on guys, instead of flaming everyone who disagrees with you, actually think with your heads for a minute.

[GloryHole]

The bidders obviously know the value of bitcoin is far higher than it's current price. Not a single one of them is going to say "Damn BTC is going for $700...I'm out". They know the MASSIVE heights that bitcoin can very easily reach in the not so distant future. These guys have money to burn. They're not going to be pinching pennies here. I think we'll see a pretty high price. And that could trigger the boom...or it could do nothing at all. But I don't think so.

[cosmicapex]

I believe it's probable that they'll overpay a little bit.  It'd be prudent for both parties; you can't just buy 30k BTC @ X price in one action, the price will probably go up way before you hit 30k, and the FBI gets to charge a premium for their efforts.  

Plus the fact that it's an auction, we could see some seriously crazy shit happen.  Overpaying like crazy to drive the price up for a massive bubble, and it's likely whoever wins has massive amounts of Bitcoins already, so the chance they'll dump all-out to fiat is low; anyone heavily vested in Bitcoin wins from that auction.

On the flipside, let's say the FBI under-prices them at $300-$400?  They could negatively influence Bitcoin's price & viability, at the expense of cash (and as I write that last part it seems ridiculous for them to give up millions to try and dismantle something they should know they can't dismantle with just a few million dollars).

[GloryHole]

The winners aren't going to dump shit. They're going to hoard. Because they know the long term potential absolutely shits on the ability to make a few million in the short term.

[windjc]

yes, rich investors are lining up to overpay for an asset that they can buy at market value just like anyone else from a common exchange (note... they don't have to order all at once...) or from an offline seller. come on guys, instead of flaming everyone who disagrees with you, actually think with your heads for a minute.

Since you are the only one using your head, why didn't you take my bet I offered you yesterday?

[kireinaha]

yes, rich investors are lining up to overpay for an asset that they can buy at market value just like anyone else from a common exchange (note... they don't have to order all at once...) or from an offline seller. come on guys, instead of flaming everyone who disagrees with you, actually think with your heads for a minute.

Since you are the only one using your head, why didn't you take my bet I offered you yesterday?

I don't bet; I'm more into the buy and hold philosophy and that's enough excitement for me.

[windjc]

yes, rich investors are lining up to overpay for an asset that they can buy at market value just like anyone else from a common exchange (note... they don't have to order all at once...) or from an offline seller. come on guys, instead of flaming everyone who disagrees with you, actually think with your heads for a minute.

Since you are the only one using your head, why didn't you take my bet I offered you yesterday?

I don't bet; I'm more into the buy and hold philosophy and that's enough excitement for me.

Curious. Are you going to make a statement if the majority of coins sell for a premium?

[GloryHole]

I have nothing to gain here. I'm out.

[GloryHole]

You should change your name to Devin Troll

[Cluster2k]

Think about it.

Buying 30,000 coins on Bitstamp, or any exchange, would easily push the price up $100. Most likely more.

When shares or other financial instruments are sold in bulk the buyers always look for a discount to the market price.  Always.  Bitcoin's market is still extremely thin but I think it will follow the established laws of finance.  The bidders will be looking for a discount to the current market price.  While it is interesting to speculate what would happen if the winning bidder went to Bitstamp/Btce/etc with a 30k order instead of the auction, I think it would be foolish for the bidder to push the auction price per bitcoin to parity or even above the asking price.

[zetaray]

The bidders are professional. They will have a strategy on how much to bet for each lot. Successful bidders on the early lots will try to drive up the market rate for later lots, while unsuccessful bidders will do the opposite. We are in for a roller coaster ride.

[hacknoid]

The bidders are professional. They will have a strategy on how much to bet for each lot. Successful bidders on the early lots will try to drive up the market rate for later lots, while unsuccessful bidders will do the opposite. We are in for a roller coaster ride.

Except that this is a sealed bid auction - bids are placed, and then nobody will find out until Monday who actually won.

[Hunterbunter]

paying 10% more than market rate isn't unreasonable.

more than 20%+ is pushing it.

[Este Nuno]

I guess I'll register my prediction now. 5% over market rate at the time of the auction on average for all the lots on the auction block.

[BitBlitz]

some bidders are definitely going to over bid. Possibly over bid a LOT in order to get the coins.
Thoughts?

This isn't eBay.  I doubt any of the buyers are stupid enough to send in a bid above market rates.

[i dig bitcoins]

"I think it will follow the established laws of finance."
  

Bitcoin is disruptive