US Marshall's Bitcoin Auction Results

[frankenmint]

So what do you think about those numbers? Isn't safe to assume that half of the Bitcoins have been purchased at market price i.e. $600 and the other half at much lower price? 42 bidders is a very small number. I would guess that the other half have been acquired at <$500 and inevitably will be sold on Monday to the market driving the price below $500...

Any thoughts?

Doubt that they sell all in one go like that.  Makes more sense to sell half, buy them back to gain from the short play, then go long and sell them gradually so as to not disrupt the price abruptly - never completely exiting the position.

[zimmah]

Probably it will be confidential, at least for a while until it's leaked. I'm really curious about the final price.

I'm expecting it simply to be somewhat below the current market price, considering that if you wanted to buy some you'd easily be able to do so at the current price, so having an auction wouldn't achieve anything. It's simply a question of how far below the market price and whether or not we'll see an increase in the supply of BTC following this or whether they'll just hoard it.

It's not that easy to buy 3000 bitcoins without affecting the price.

Also, I don't think many people would trust exchanges with millions of dollars in order to buy bitcoins, especially not after mt gox. And on top of that kost exchanges have harsh KYC and AML policies and limit withdrawal of money (and possibly bitcoin) to a set amount per day/week/month. It would be hard to withdraw that many bitcoins from an exchange.

Since only 1 person has to actually agree with this logic and therefore consider the auctioned coins more valuable, (because they come from a trusted seller and are guaranteed to be in your own wallet rather soon and in bulk) since the highest bid counts, obviously. It is likely that the coins sold at a premium.

Sure, there would be many persons who bid below market but it only takes a single person to drive the price up, you guys are way to negative.

[JRu]

So what do you think about those numbers? Isn't safe to assume that half of the Bitcoins have been purchased at market price i.e. $600 and the other half at much lower price? 42 bidders is a very small number. I would guess that the other half have been acquired at <$500 and inevitably will be sold on Monday to the market driving the price below $500...

Any thoughts?

                                 
Have you ever seen an auction where they opened below market value? We are talking 40,000 plus BTC. The auction is probably is conducted by a private company on behalf of the fed. 42 people entered 186 bids that means 42 people increased the total that they would pay 186 times. Even if they started below market value (which any auction company wouldn't)  the price has to be above market value. How would the auctioneer decide which price to start at? He has no choice but to start at market value. Plus try buying 42,000 BTC on the market and see what would happen to BTC price. The fact is you couldn't get this amount of BTC in one shot anywhere. If the Auction is a sign of "demand" for bitcoin and people are willing to pay 18 million then the price will reflect that alone.                                                                                                                                 

[galbros]

http://newsbtc.com/2014/06/28/barry-silbert-releases-results-bidding-syndicate-us-marshals-bitcoin-auction/

This is nice but really doesn't tell us what we need to know which is the average amount bid per coin.  Of course, if it was a low amount per coin, that will hurt the price and so no incentive to reveal it.  Monday should be interesting.

[JorgeStolfi]

What's known so far:

Results of our US Marshals bitcoin syndicate:

Bidders - 42
Bids received - 186
BTC quantity bid - 48,013
Winners notifed by USMS on Mon

https://twitter.com/Bitcoin_Casino/status/482986823669788672

This is not the USMS auction, but a "sub-auction" organized by SecondMarket to assemble bids for the auction.  I gather that, among those 186 bids (for 264 BTC on average), SecondMarket selected the highest bids adding up to 29,600 BTC, grouped them into lots of 3000 BTC, and submitted bids to the USMS for those lots, at suitable mean prices.

We can assume that few if any of those bids were above market price. People who want only a few hundred BTC could get them from the exchanges.

Presumably  Silbert, SecondMarket, and SMBIT have not placed any bids of their own to the USMS, either directly or through the syndicate.  There would obvious ethical problems if they did that.

[RiverBoatBTC]

I hope we'll be able to see the results on Monday.

Probably it will be confidential, at least for a while until it's leaked. I'm really curious about the final price.

It won't be confidential. It is a matter of public record as it is with any asset auction by the DOJ.

Thank you I tried to tell people this in another thread, they do not understand even if the DOJ did try to hide it. We have this thing called the freedom of information act, might take a couple months but we would find out.

[JorgeStolfi]

I read somewhere that the prices nor the names of the winners are not going to be made public by the government.

It says so clearly in their announcement and FAQ:
http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/
http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/faqs.pdf
People may perhaps get the winning price through a FOIA request, but who knows how long that may take.

[RiverBoatBTC]

Not long it does not contain classified or information in regards to american security. The only reason they get held up or not given is for those specified reasons. They really have no reason to not give the information up, what reason could they have?


http://www.foia.gov/

In some circumstances, the agency will be able to respond to the request within the standard time limit established by the FOIA – approximately one month

Think this would qualify. Think the Foia at the DOJ would even ask why they are keeping this hidden from public view.

[JorgeStolfi]

Not long it does not contain classified or information in regards to american security. The only reason they get held up or not given is for those specified reasons. They really have no reason to not give the information up, what reason could they have?
http://www.foia.gov/

In some circumstances, the agency will be able to respond to the request within the standard time limit established by the FOIA – approximately one month

Think this would qualify. Think the Foia at the DOJ would even ask why they are keeping this hidden from public view.

Thanks. I cannot imagine any excuse for withholding the winning price.  They may perhaps contend that the identity of the winners is private information, but even that seems unlikely.

[RiverBoatBTC]

Not long it does not contain classified or information in regards to american security. The only reason they get held up or not given is for those specified reasons. They really have no reason to not give the information up, what reason could they have?
http://www.foia.gov/

In some circumstances, the agency will be able to respond to the request within the standard time limit established by the FOIA – approximately one month

Think this would qualify. Think the Foia at the DOJ would even ask why they are keeping this hidden from public view.

Thanks. I cannot imagine any excuse for withholding the winning price.  They may perhaps contend that the identity of the winners is private information, but even that seems unlikely.

Yea that is horse shit, if you buy a car, house, rings, or anything else from them it is made public. Why hide this? Waiting for the tin foil hat people to say something to the effect of "the gov is keeping the coins to entrap people".

[JorgeStolfi]

if you buy a car, house, rings, or anything else from [ the USMS ] it is made public. Why hide this?

Is that true, are USMS auction results made public in general?

I imagine that they have been pressed to keep those results private.  A car maker would not like people to know that a model X in perfect condition has been auctioned for half the recommended sales price.  A used car dealer or real estate agent would not like his clients to know how much he paid for the item that he is trying to sell them.

[BurtW]

What a bunch of lazy ass people you have all become.  All you have to do is learn to use Google and then read:

10. What information about the auction process or results will the USMS release?
 
The USMS will contact the winning and losing bidders directly. The USMS will not publicly
release any information pertaining to the auction process or results.

http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/faqs.pdf

There now shut up about "yes they must release it", "they will", "they won't", "yes they will", "no they won't".

They won't.  However that FOIA thing might be interesting if they don't accidently mail out the results to everyone.

[RiverBoatBTC]

The problem is the USMS makes no promises on condition and/or warranty. So it might look like a gem from the outside but when you get inside it, could be a hole heap of trouble. Bidders understand this and will research prior owners, and how they treated and or up kept items. A drug dealer with a 5 million dollar mansion may have had all the walls ripped out by the DEA, might require 1 million in repair. But thats all the fun of the auction game.

But bitcoins... maybe because people think they might be tarnished?

Its easy to tell what something sold for at action when its real property, just go to the county GIS system and look at the deeds.


Hmmm so they are saying you can get the info just submit you FOIA request.

11. What information about the auction process or results might be available through a FOIA
request?
 
Agency records or information which is not covered by one or more of the FOIA’s Exemptions is
subject to disclosure. Such determinations will be made in accordance with
Department of Justice regulations available at

[Beliathon]

So what do you think about those numbers? Isn't safe to assume that half of the Bitcoins have been purchased at market price i.e. $600 and the other half at much lower price? 42 bidders is a very small number. I would guess that the other half have been acquired at <$500 and inevitably will be sold on Monday to the market driving the price below $500...

Any thoughts?

Just one.

Anyone with enough financial leverage to afford a 1.5 million dollar buy should also have enough financial savvy to hold that investment for uber returns within a few shorts years.

Only a retard would sell in the same week they bought, speaking as someone who bought my first BTC at ~$150 Q3 2013 and sold my first BTC at ~$800 Q4 2013... Even noobs know a few months patience can pay off big time in the world of Bitcoin.

[RiverBoatBTC]

Only way DOJ will not release information is under exemption 4

§ 16.8Business information.
(a) In general. Business information obtained by the Department from a submitter will be disclosed under the FOIA only under this section.
(b) Definitions. For purposes of this section:
(1) Business information means commercial or financial information obtained by the Department from a submitter that may be protected from disclosure under Exemption 4 of the FOIA.
(2) Submitter means any person or entity from whom the Department obtains business information, directly or indirectly. The term includes corporations; state, local, and tribal governments; and foreign governments.
(c) Designation of business information. A submitter of business information will use good-faith efforts to designate, by appropriate markings, either at the time of submission or at a reasonable time thereafter, any portions of its submission that it considers to be protected from disclosure under Exemption 4. These designations will expire ten years after the date of the submission unless the submitter requests, and provides justification for, a longer designation period.
(d) Notice to submitters. A component shall provide a submitter with prompt written notice of a FOIA request or administrative appeal that seeks its business information wherever required under paragraph (e) of this section, except as provided in paragraph (h) of this section, in order to give the submitter an opportunity to object to disclosure of any specified portion of that information under paragraph (f) of this section. The notice shall either describe the business information requested or include copies of the requested records or record portions containing the information. When notification of a voluminous number of submitters is required, notification may be made by posting or publishing the notice in a place reasonably likely to accomplish it.
(e) Where notice is required. Notice shall be given to a submitter wherever:
(1) The information has been designated in good faith by the submitter as information considered protected from disclosure under Exemption 4; or
(2) The component has reason to believe that the information may be protected from disclosure under Exemption 4.
(f) Opportunity to object to disclosure. A component will allow a submitter a reasonable time to respond to the notice described in paragraph (d) of this section and will specify that time period within the notice. If a submitter has any objection to disclosure, it is required to submit a detailed written statement. The statement must specify all grounds for withholding any portion of the information under any exemption of the FOIA and, in the case of Exemption 4, it must show why the information is a trade secret or commercial or financial information that is privileged or confidential. In the event that a submitter fails to respond to the notice within the time specified in it, the submitter will be considered to have no objection to disclosure of the information. Information provided by the submitter that is not received by the component until after its disclosure decision has been made shall not be considered by the component. Information provided by a submitter under this paragraph may itself be subject to disclosure under the FOIA.
(g) Notice of intent to disclose. A component shall consider a submitter's objections and specific grounds for nondisclosure in deciding whether to disclose business information. Whenever a component decides to disclose business information over the objection of a submitter, the component shall give the submitter written notice, which shall include:
(1) A statement of the reason(s) why each of the submitter's disclosure objections was not sustained;
(2) A description of the business information to be disclosed; and
(3) A specified disclosure date, which shall be a reasonable time subsequent to the notice.
(h) Exceptions to notice requirements. The notice requirements of paragraphs (d) and (g) of this section shall not apply if:
(1) The component determines that the information should not be disclosed;
(2) The information lawfully has been published or has been officially made available to the public;
(3) Disclosure of the information is required by statute (other than the FOIA) or by a regulation issued in accordance with the requirements of Executive Order 12600 (3 CFR, 1988 Comp., p. 235); or
(4) The designation made by the submitter under paragraph (c) of this section appears obviously frivolous—except that, in such a case, the component shall, within a reasonable time prior to a specified disclosure date, give the submitter written notice of any final decision to disclose the information.
(i) Notice of FOIA lawsuit. Whenever a requester files a lawsuit seeking to compel the disclosure of business information, the component shall promptly notify the submitter.
(j) Corresponding notice to requesters. Whenever a component provides a submitter with notice and an opportunity to object to disclosure under paragraph (d) of this section, the component shall also notify the requester(s). Whenever a component notifies a submitter of its intent to disclose requested information under paragraph (g) of this section, the component shall also notify the requester(s). Whenever a submitter files a lawsuit seeking to prevent the disclosure of business information, the component shall notify the requester(s).
[Order No. 2156-98, 63 FR 29593, June 1, 1998; 63 FR 51401, Sept. 25, 1998]

Exemption 4
Exemption 4 of the FOIA protects "trade secrets and commercial or financial information obtained from a person [that is] privileged or confidential." (1) This exemption is intended to protect the interests of both the government and submitters of information. Its very existence encourages submitters to voluntarily furnish useful commercial or financial information to the government and it correspondingly provides the government with an assurance that such information will be reliable. The exemption also affords protection to those submitters who are required to furnish commercial or financial information to the government by safeguarding them from the competitive disadvantages that could result from disclosure. (2) The exemption covers two broad categories of information in federal agency records: (1) trade secrets; and (2) information that is (a) commercial or financial, and (b) obtained from a person, and (c) privileged or confidential

They are not going to give you the bank account # of the people who got the coins lol

[JorgeStolfi]

Bidders understand this and will research prior owners, and how they treated and or up kept items. A drug dealer with a 5 million dollar mansion may have had all the walls ripped out by the DEA, might require 1 million in repair. But thats all the fun of the auction game.

In auctions of material goods, like cars or houses, the USMS contracts a private company to keep custody of the goods and allow inspection by prospective bidders.  Check their pages for prior auctions.

[JorgeStolfi]

Only way DOJ will not release information is under exemption 4

I am no lawyer, but my reading is that Exemption 4 applies to information about private transactions that someone may give to the government -- e.g. tax filings, or sales of controlled substances by a chemical supplier to their customers.  I don't think that it applies to information about transactions of a private company with the government.  So the auction results, in particular, should not be blocked by it.

[Lauda]

I think you made a mistake in the title by putting the word 'Results' in there.

Nope!

These are the results as relased so far by the government.

I guess Monday we'll find out the prices.

I'm sure that some people will profit a lot from this.

[Skidog35]

I wonder how much exactly they have got from selling these coins and the names of the ones who got the coins -maybe they will mistakenly report the names/profit-

[RiverBoatBTC]

Bidders understand this and will research prior owners, and how they treated and or up kept items. A drug dealer with a 5 million dollar mansion may have had all the walls ripped out by the DEA, might require 1 million in repair. But thats all the fun of the auction game.

In auctions of material goods, like cars or houses, the USMS contracts a private company to keep custody of the goods and allow inspection by prospective bidders.  Check their pages for prior auctions.

Which is why this was a odd auction to start with.