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Author Topic: Price held up pretty good in the latest fiasco?  (Read 3251 times)
stick_theman
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March 03, 2012, 09:25:02 PM
 #1

We haven't seen any dramatic selling or buying yet... whereas, in previous heists the price would drop like hot potatoes.  I'm not "jinxing" anything... just pointing out the fact and to get your thoughts.
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March 03, 2012, 09:43:44 PM
 #2

I believe OP was talking about the market reaction to the recent news, rather than the stolen coins being sold themselves.

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March 03, 2012, 09:50:01 PM
 #3

The fact that services are covering for the stolen coins actually strengthened trust. I would say it even proved a lot of things that were yet unproven, and will be used in future arguments for an unregulated economy. It is a positive in the long run, but also prevented an immediate decline.
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March 03, 2012, 09:58:16 PM
 #4

Give it time. The price will slowly degrade in my opinion. 50K of BTC needs to be laundered and
sold. Even if the first sale is not on GOX.. those coins, over time, will arrive there and be sold.

As a miner who sells his coins immediately I instantly put in a large short to cover any possible
crash. If the price stays high well that is good. I can sell my mined BTC for a good price. Naturally
I will take a small loss on my short.

If the price crashes below 4, well that is fine for the next 30+ days... I covered that possibility
also. My short will make money to cover what I will now be losing by mining and selling BTC.

But I do admit, I expected the large short to have made some money by now and it is just sitting
at the break even point pretty much. Sometimes in the green, sometimes barely in the red.
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March 03, 2012, 10:45:27 PM
 #5

The fact that services are covering for the stolen coins actually strengthened trust.

And possibly strengthened demand as well.  You cannot withdraw bitcoins from a wallet that doesn't have them, so perhaps Bitcoinica has been buying to support withdrawals.

There are multiple traders that are claiming to have gone short on this event.  That the price didn't drop further and that the volume was fairly moderate for this type of an event is quite interesting:
 - http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg5zczsg2012-02-28zeg2012-03-04ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Vitalik Buterin
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March 04, 2012, 10:13:33 AM
 #6

A savvy criminal would release them slowly through a tumbler over a period of months to purposely keep the exchange rate from being effected and reap the maximum reward. A criminal genius would hold them for years and retire on the wealth. 

$200k can give you a pretty nice retirement for life in Thailand, India or the like.

Argumentum ad lunam: the fallacy that because Bitcoin's price is rising really fast the currency must be a speculative bubble and/or Ponzi scheme.
Herodes
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March 04, 2012, 03:46:48 PM
 #7

Give it time. The price will slowly degrade in my opinion. 50K of BTC needs to be laundered and
sold. Even if the first sale is not on GOX.. those coins, over time, will arrive there and be sold.

If bitcoinica is buying the same amount, then those will cancel each other out ?
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March 04, 2012, 11:05:54 PM
 #8

A savvy criminal would release them slowly through a tumbler over a period of months to purposely keep the exchange rate from being effected and reap the maximum reward. A criminal genius would hold them for years and retire on the wealth. 

$200k can give you a pretty nice retirement for life in Thailand, India or the like.

BTC 40k can give you a pretty nice retirement on mars.

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March 07, 2012, 01:41:59 PM
 #9

"bitcoin is already to big for panicking only cause some major exchange/speculation venture got hacked."  <- i now say this with confidence
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March 07, 2012, 01:43:29 PM
 #10

And if MtGox gets hacked? Or targeted by law?

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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March 07, 2012, 02:58:43 PM
 #11

And if MtGox gets hacked? Or targeted by law?

Boom, headshot.
cheat_2_win
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March 07, 2012, 03:41:03 PM
 #12

And if MtGox gets hacked? Or targeted by law?

I think this is the next big thing to watch out for. A wrong move from government or law enforcement, and BOOM there goes the bitcoin price.
proudhon
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March 07, 2012, 03:46:42 PM
 #13

And if MtGox gets hacked? Or targeted by law?

I think this is the next big thing to watch out for. A wrong move from government or law enforcement, and BOOM there goes the bitcoin price.

Wait, which way do you think it's going to go?
hazek
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March 07, 2012, 05:02:23 PM
 #14

And if MtGox gets hacked? Or targeted by law?

I think this is the next big thing to watch out for. A wrong move from government or law enforcement, and BOOM there goes the bitcoin price.

Wait, which way do you think it's going to go?

I'm pretty sure he meant down.  Roll Eyes

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March 07, 2012, 07:37:35 PM
 #15

...or if MtGox would have to be boycotted for stealing innocent people's coin. I hope they won't dare though.

cheat_2_win
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March 07, 2012, 07:42:59 PM
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And if MtGox gets hacked? Or targeted by law?

I think this is the next big thing to watch out for. A wrong move from government or law enforcement, and BOOM there goes the bitcoin price.

Wait, which way do you think it's going to go?

I'm pretty sure he meant down.  Roll Eyes

Yes, I meant down.
istar
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March 07, 2012, 08:22:22 PM
 #17

And if MtGox gets hacked? Or targeted by law?

I think this is the next big thing to watch out for. A wrong move from government or law enforcement, and BOOM there goes the bitcoin price.

Not sure it would be such a huge impact as one might believe if for example crypto exchange could take over after a while, its not like it used to be.



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March 07, 2012, 10:32:56 PM
 #18

And if MtGox gets hacked? Or targeted by law?

I'm not going to answer the "hacked" part of your question (mtgox was hacked already), but the "targeted by law".

Bitcoin is currently legal in the countries that protect free speech and trade.
Changing the law in these countries is a long and complicated process, that tends to spark public debates.
And if you want to stop Bitcoin, a public debate is the last thing you want.

If they want to stop Bitcoin, banks and governments are more likely to use existing anti-money laundering laws.
What they can do with these laws is limited. They can target exchanges that rely on bank accounts, such as MtGox.
However, there is nothing they can do against semi-centralized exchanges such as bitcoin.de or bitcoin-otc.

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March 07, 2012, 10:42:04 PM
 #19

However, there is nothing they can do against semi-centralized exchanges such as bitcoin.de or bitcoin-otc.
Which would severely cripple the demand and therefore price (convenience, accessibility, liquidity) if people had to resort to these options …

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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March 08, 2012, 12:22:55 AM
 #20

However, there is nothing they can do against semi-centralized exchanges such as bitcoin.de or bitcoin-otc.
Which would severely cripple the demand and therefore price (convenience, accessibility, liquidity) if people had to resort to these options …

I'm using them ever TH cut off SEPA, they work great (bitmarket) in my case, also absolutely free of charge. People would just need to spread out their business a bit more. Don't get this obsession with a central quasi monopolized market like Gox anyhow!

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