what will price be on August 1?

[btcbeliever]

Please enter your predictions and reasoning.

[1714831625]

1714831625

[1714831625]

1714831625

[1714831625]

1714831625

[wobber]

2500 to 2800.

Reasoning: 5% of daily increase last 24 hrs. LOL.

Future_price = Current_price * (1 + y)^n

where

y = decimal growth rate per day
n = number of periods (days)

[mocrotasje]

800-1200

[rapsaodan84]

My guess is somewhat above 800.

Good news are coming, but I don't think we'll see an explosion in price just yet.
Maybe by the end of the year.

[Miz4r]

My guess is somewhat above 800.

Good news are coming, but I don't think we'll see an explosion in price just yet.
Maybe by the end of the year.

This is what I think as well, we will go to 840-850 this month and then see another bear trap down to 700 before we'll visit 1000 somewhere before the end of the year. I expect a real price explosion to $3000+ next year, but depending on developments with the ETF and regulations it may already happen this year.

[nickenburg]

I voted for 1000-1800, just because this year, we left the bad news about bitcoins behind us.
And we already saw the price rise above 600, and i think it will atleast reach 1000 this year again.

[wobber]

Let me understand correctly, without my trollish-bearish general attitude: Everybody thinks that we'll see 4-digit prices based solely on last weeks rise? We are lower than January guys!

Good traders might have got the chance to make money out of these $100 price changes (up or down, doesn't matter) but holders have lost much of their wealth.

And yes, we had tons of good news but price wasn't much affected.

[Mayuyu48]

my prediction bitcoin prices will around $800-$899
many good news recently, and we still don't see FUD news like before
maybe it will climb up to $900 for a while, and go down to $850 at the end of july

[JimboToronto]

holders have lost much of their wealth.

Not those who bought for less $100, let alone the early birds who paid pennies.

Perhaps you misunderstand holding. It means not selling. Until you sell your coins, they are worth exactly what you paid for them, nothing more, nothing less.

Only those stupid enough to sell for less than they paid have lost any wealth.

[wobber]

holders have lost much of their wealth.

Not those who bought for less $100, let alone the early birds who paid pennies.

Perhaps you misunderstand holding. It means not selling. Until you sell your coins, they are worth exactly what you paid for them, nothing more, nothing less.

Only those stupid enough to sell for less than they paid have lost any wealth.

Agree. But holding into bitcoin should be looked at a method of preserving wealth. What wealth do you preserve when it drops 30%?

[JimboToronto]

Daytrading is gambling, pure and simple.

You know, hidden amongst your barrage of trolling and humorous posts there's the occasional word of wisdom.

This is one of them.

[JimboToronto]

holders have lost much of their wealth.

Not those who bought for less $100, let alone the early birds who paid pennies.

Perhaps you misunderstand holding. It means not selling. Until you sell your coins, they are worth exactly what you paid for them, nothing more, nothing less.

Only those stupid enough to sell for less than they paid have lost any wealth.

Agree. But holding into bitcoin should be looked at a method of preserving wealth. What wealth do you preserve when it drops 30%?

All of it if you don't sell and the price rises higher than before the drop.

[Torque]

holders have lost much of their wealth.

Not those who bought for less $100, let alone the early birds who paid pennies.

Perhaps you misunderstand holding. It means not selling. Until you sell your coins, they are worth exactly what you paid for them, nothing more, nothing less.

Only those stupid enough to sell for less than they paid have lost any wealth.

Agree. But holding into bitcoin should be looked at a method of preserving wealth. What wealth do you preserve when it drops 30%?

From 2002-2007 - The dollar fell 40% in value as the U.S. debt grew 60%.  In 2009, the dollar fell 20% thanks to debt fears.

How much lower is today's dollar value? In 1913 you could buy as much with a dollar as you can with $23.63 in 2014, more than 100 years later. By 1920, the dollar had lost about half its value, and was worth $11.48 in today's value. Deflation (the opposite of inflation) during the Great Depression of 1929 increased the value of the dollar to $13.43. By 1940, the dollar was worth even more -- it could buy as much as $16.40 could today.

By 1950, the dollar's value had dropped even lower than before the Depression. It was worth only $9.53. It has fallen ever since:

    1960 = $7.76
    1970 = $5.92
    1980 = $2.79
    1990 = $1.76
    2000 = $1.33
    2010 - $1.05.

[wobber]

Great insight, but you're talking years there... Bitcoin looses 40% in a few days...

[Torque]

Great insight, but you're talking years there... Bitcoin looses 40% in a few days...

....and gains it back a few days or weeks later.  It can also gain 500-600% in one month.  It also averages 8x-10x value year-over-year end.

What else you got smart ass?

[silversmith]

I will probably be under $10. Mark Williams was probably just a month off on his famous prediction.  

[wobber]

Great insight, but you're talking years there... Bitcoin looses 40% in a few days...

....and gains it back a few days or weeks later.  It can also gain 500-600% in one month.  It also averages 8x-10x value year over year end.

What else you got smart ass?

I rest my case.

[JimboToronto]

Great insight, but you're talking years there... Bitcoin looses 40% in a few days...

....and gains it back a few days or weeks later.  It can also gain 500-600% in one month.  It also averages 8x-10x value year over year end.

What else you got smart ass?

Hey, don't confuse him with the facts.

[Tzupy]

Interesting... So far 13% of the voters went for >8000$, which is utterly delusional.

[wobber]

Seriously now, August might see 680. But anything more is insane.

[MoreFun]

Seriously now, August might see 680. But anything more is insane.

Isn't anything more than $700 insane for you for this year? Please, $680 can be broken today not in august. There are many many buyers waiting on the side to buy when prices start to increase.

[BitchicksHusband]

I said $2000-$3999.  We will either be on the way down from the peak ($4800-$5200) or late on the way up.  Either way, I think this is the most likely answer.

[vuduchyld]

I think we will see some volatility in July.  We may well get over $700 or even $750.  We may see another leg down below $550.

But if the question is what the price be ON August 1, put me squarely in the $600-699 camp. 

[windjc]

Interesting... So far 13% of the voters went for >8000$, which is utterly delusional.

Its a joke.

[skottiejay]

I don't think the price will really go up or down much, it might stick to the $600's it might go up a bit, but I don't see it getting any higher than $700 as much as I'd like it to. This is just purely observation on my part however.

[aminorex]

Great insight, but you're talking years there... Bitcoin looses 40% in a few days...

I checked.  You're right.  It's clearly terrible.  You should sell all of yours and go elsewhere.

[davidgdg]

holders have lost much of their wealth.

Not those who bought for less $100, let alone the early birds who paid pennies.

Perhaps you misunderstand holding. It means not selling. Until you sell your coins, they are worth exactly what you paid for them, nothing more, nothing less.

Only those stupid enough to sell for less than they paid have lost any wealth.

Agree. But holding into bitcoin should be looked at a method of preserving wealth. What wealth do you preserve when it drops 30%?

yes but what do you do with the cash in-between selling high and buying low? If you keep it on the exchange, you risk losing the lot if it goes bust. But if you transfer it out, then you have to transfer it back again when you want to buy - which can take days (AML etc) and then you miss the lows. Also if you sell, you risk triggering a capital gain. Then you have to use some of the cash to pay tax and have less to buy back with!

[zimmah]

If we assume we are currently at the start of the next rally (which is in my opinion quite likely), the rally would need about 2 months to fully mature.

By 1 month it's about double the current price, while in 2 months it's about 5 times that price, as it accelerates in price.

So, by that logic, the price in 1 month would be about $1300

Also, previous 3 peaks:

August 17 2012 ($16 or so)
+235 days
April 10 2013 ($254 or so)
+233 days
Nov 29 2013 ($1162)
+234 days
July 21 2014 ($5600~7500ish) (altough i think we may be delayed a little because the price seems to be too low right now. It normally needs about 2 months for a 10-fold increase).

[maker88]

Let me understand correctly, without my trollish-bearish general attitude: Everybody thinks that we'll see 4-digit prices based solely on last weeks rise? We are lower than January guys!

Good traders might have got the chance to make money out of these $100 price changes (up or down, doesn't matter) but holders have lost much of their wealth.

And yes, we had tons of good news but price wasn't much affected.

where do you get the idea that holders have lost wealth from this? what does it matter that we are lower than in january? january the price was at 900-800. last september we were lower than the previous may, and that lasted a real long time didn't it? 1000 by years end is all but a guarantee in my opinion. you don't have to place your bet in line with mine, but don't be mad when you miss out on a rally because you were too short sighted. bitcoin can rise multiple hundreds of percent in a weeks time under the right conditions, to just pretend thats never going to happen again is a mistake many have made, and all of them regret it.

[piramida]

To people who say $700 - update your calendars, you have August where July usually is.

[keithers]

whoever thinks that BTC will be $8,000 by August 1st should be dumping their life savings into BTC immediately.   If you really believe that, then it is free money, right?

[maker88]

If we assume we are currently at the start of the next rally (which is in my opinion quite likely), the rally would need about 2 months to fully mature.

By 1 month it's about double the current price, while in 2 months it's about 5 times that price, as it accelerates in price.

So, by that logic, the price in 1 month would be about $1300

Also, previous 3 peaks:

August 17 2012 ($16 or so)
+235 days
April 10 2013 ($254 or so)
+233 days
Nov 29 2013 ($1162)
+234 days
July 21 2014 ($5600~7500ish) (altough i think we may be delayed a little because the price seems to be too low right now. It normally needs about 2 months for a 10-fold increase).

i agree that we are right at the beginning of a new rally period, if you look at last years events, the rise off the bottom and the bear trap that came before the big one look very very similar to the last two months events. i think july 21st we will have seen a significant increase, but i don't think 5000 range is coming this year. i think well be at 3-4000 around late fall for a brief moment before a sell off settling around 1500-2000. i think next year will be the year we go over 4k hope you're right and I'm wrong though!

[kireinaha]

$600-$699

There are too many people this time expecting the bubble in July. They have already bought in and now twiddling their thumbs while waiting for "Wall Street" to show up and take it from here.

There's nobody to fuel this rise... although they will probably come eventually, for now, expectations are too high and once it becomes obvious that the bubble isn't coming soon, speculators will get wary and start selling, ensuring that we don't go up much higher than current levels.

[BitchicksHusband]

whoever thinks that BTC will be $8,000 by August 1st should be dumping their life savings into BTC immediately.   If you really believe that, then it is free money, right?

Correct.

[Skele]

$800-$999

First a 900 dollars bid winner the past auction, next NewEgg accepting Bitcoin, Amazon will probably follows, at any case, buy now before is too late...

[wobber]

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no! We're not at the beginning of a rally!

I don't think we will have any rally this year. Just maybe 100-150 USD of ups and downs.

[kodtycoon]

2500 to 2800.

Reasoning: 5% of daily increase last 24 hrs. LOL.

Future_price = Current_price * (1 + y)^n

where

y = decimal growth rate per day
n = number of periods (days)

does that work? :/

[TrollinU]

holders have lost much of their wealth.

Not those who bought for less $100, let alone the early birds who paid pennies.

Perhaps you misunderstand holding. It means not selling. Until you sell your coins, they are worth exactly what you paid for them, nothing more, nothing less.

Only those stupid enough to sell for less than they paid have lost any wealth.

So you are telling me that if you bought your coins for $1000, held until now, and now tried to by something at the latest adopter Newegg, you could by something for $1000 still?
That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works!
I would say that you need to come up with about 80% more coin to make that purchase == Lost wealth or at least lost buying power

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no! We're not at the beginning of a rally!

I don't think we will have any rally this year. Just maybe 100-150 USD of ups and downs.

A suckers rally is about it

Daytrading is gambling, pure and simple.

It's only gambling if you don't know what you're doing.

It can also be said that we are all gambling because it's not guaranteed that Bitcoin will still be here tomorrow

[lay785]

whoever thinks that BTC will be $8,000 by August 1st should be dumping their life savings into BTC immediately.   If you really believe that, then it is free money, right?

Lots of people are full of crap. they claim it will go up by thousands but dont bet on it with all their money.

[leezay]

Around 700-800 range.

[transient858]

ICBIT is pricing it around 700 usd for september and around 800 usd for december.

[keithers]

Around 700-800 range.

This would be good if we are in this range.

[bkora]

IMO $1000+
may be it will make new high

[AdamSmith]

Around 700-800 range.

This would be good if we are in this range.

News is out the auction winner bid well over market price at around 700.

[davidgdg]

Around 700-800 range.

This would be good if we are in this range.

News is out the auction winner bid well over market price at around 700.

I have seen no reliable evidence anywhere of the level of the winning bid. Do you have a source? (not just second-hand news-aggregation gossip)

[davidgdg]

ICBIT is pricing it around 700 usd for september and around 800 usd for december.

I wouldn't place much reliance on futures prices. For pretty much every commodity they tend to be slightly higher for long-dated contracts. Gold, stock indices and house price indices are no different. 

[SirChiko]

Probably around 800-850$ If nothing bad will happen.

[Thylacine]

$700's

There's been a ton of merchant acceptance and general business investment in bitcoin recently which all has been far more bullish than anything that came out November last year. That said, I just don't think there's the mania and get-rich-quick crowd waiting on the sidelines to pump it into 4-figures+ right now. I think it's going to be steady rise with a reduction in volatility, and this is what we want...

[inca]

$700's

There's been a ton of merchant acceptance and general business investment in bitcoin recently which all has been far more bullish than anything that came out November last year. That said, I just don't think there's the mania and get-rich-quick crowd waiting on the sidelines to pump it into 4-figures+ right now. I think it's going to be steady rise with a reduction in volatility, and this is what we want...

I wouldn't get too bothered trying to time things.

What is likely (not certain!) to happen is what all always happens. The last rally brought with it huge media splashing of bitcoin to the great unwashed. A proportion will have either read about it and forgotten or seen the price plummet and stayed out. As the price flirts with the ATH they will climb on board along with the whales and speculators. The price will feed on itself and mania will set in. If we are lucky an ETF will be sucking liquidity from the market.

Its going to happen. The only question is when. My guess is we disillusion some speculators for a bit longer before ambling up to the ATH.

History often rhymes.

[ajareselde]

600-699 $ nothing quite big enough actualy taking place to justify bigger expectations.
Before bitcoin reached market cap. this big , it was easy to move the price, but now you realy need something big to push the price up, without it comming right down few days/weeks later.

[btcbeliever]

Before bitcoin reached market cap. this big , it was easy to move the price, but now you realy need something big to push the price up, without it comming right down few days/weeks later.

So you don't buy into the logorithmic rate of growh for adoption of new technical innovations - like facebook members, smart cell phone adoption, that sort of thing?  Based on the adoption curves I recall seeing we have at least a few years left of 10-fold annual increases.  Fiat currency is soon to be dead, just like email replaced inter-office paper memorandums.

[ThatDGuy]

Before bitcoin reached market cap. this big , it was easy to move the price, but now you realy need something big to push the price up, without it comming right down few days/weeks later.

So you don't buy into the logorithmic rate of growh for adoption of new technical innovations - like facebook members, smart cell phone adoption, that sort of thing?  Based on the adoption curves I recall seeing we have at least a few years left of 10-fold annual increases.  Fiat currency is soon to be dead, just like email replaced inter-office paper memorandums.

Not so sure "soon".  People* still use fax machines.  

*draconic industries

[Benjig]

I was going to say the more reasonable 1000-2000 but because bitcoin can surpass our expectations i say 2000-4000

[wobber]

I was going to say the more reasonable 1000-2000 but because bitcoin can surpass our expectations i say 2000-4000

I loled.

[GangkisKhan]

Around 700 per coin.

[Candystripes]

Don't put 8000 next time or people will just think it's funny to choose it.

[SunBin]

August 1st is only less than 1 month away.

Don't see much can happen between now and then.