Bitcoin difficulty may actually go down in ~7 days!

[navigator]

Well shit... In the bitmain threads they are saying the S3 isn't quite put together yet. That means the current hashrate increase wasn't from them and that there will be a bump once they start shipping them out.

I kinda hope they are lying to us and have been testing the S3's. So who is responsible for all that hashrate that was added recently?

[philipma1957]

Well shit... In the bitmain threads they are saying the S3 isn't quite put together yet. That means the current hashrate increase wasn't from them and that there will be a bump once they start shipping them out.

I kinda hope they are lying to us and have been testing the S3's. So who is responsible for all that hashrate that was added recently?

my feeling is bitmaintech.  but not with s-3's.   they may have a lot more s-1's + s-2's.  they underclocked /undervolted them and ran them.

But I am hoping that they just ran the s-3's  and are playing with the truth same as you are hoping.

I also think bitmaintech may have the ability to build far more gear then we realize.  Then store it off line rather then mine it.  

This would be good as it would mean they want the mining game to last for years.

[Grix]

Well shit... In the bitmain threads they are saying the S3 isn't quite put together yet. That means the current hashrate increase wasn't from them and that there will be a bump once they start shipping them out.

I kinda hope they are lying to us and have been testing the S3's. So who is responsible for all that hashrate that was added recently?

KNC neptunes and asicminer gen3 probably played a role.

Also, according to my snooping at antminer's address https://blockchain.info/address/1QB8Ds5KbGYBLQa5RyDQ2sVUeSKWf7qgkZ it doesn't look like they have sold more than ~5000 S3s so far. This would only increase the difficulty a tiny 2% if everything got turned on at the same time.

[TheJuice]

Well shit... In the bitmain threads they are saying the S3 isn't quite put together yet. That means the current hashrate increase wasn't from them and that there will be a bump once they start shipping them out.

I kinda hope they are lying to us and have been testing the S3's. So who is responsible for all that hashrate that was added recently?

KNC neptunes and asicminer gen3 probably played a role.

Also, according to my snooping at antminer's address https://blockchain.info/address/1QB8Ds5KbGYBLQa5RyDQ2sVUeSKWf7qgkZ it doesn't look like they have sold more than ~5000 S3s so far. This would only increase the difficulty a tiny 2% if everything got turned on at the same time.

We may finally, finally be seeing a plateau!

I think the issue now is the margins on the hardware are quickly dropping and it's just not worth it for manufactures to produce more machines.
 

[philipma1957]

Well shit... In the bitmain threads they are saying the S3 isn't quite put together yet. That means the current hashrate increase wasn't from them and that there will be a bump once they start shipping them out.

I kinda hope they are lying to us and have been testing the S3's. So who is responsible for all that hashrate that was added recently?

KNC neptunes and asicminer gen3 probably played a role.

Also, according to my snooping at antminer's address https://blockchain.info/address/1QB8Ds5KbGYBLQa5RyDQ2sVUeSKWf7qgkZ it doesn't look like they have sold more than ~5000 S3s so far. This would only increase the difficulty a tiny 2% if everything got turned on at the same time.

We may finally, finally be seeing a plateau!

I think the issue now is the margins on the hardware are quickly dropping and it's just not worth it for manufactures to produce more machines.
 

I agree that diff will flatten .  And sooner  over later.

 take the pattern I use of replacing older gear with newer gear.  looking to get more hash better power decent price.

I am not the only person doing this.

 Now look at gear that does 2 watts per hash. 

And see that all 2 watt gear will not pay for power at a diff of 41 and btc at 620 usd. power at 15 cents.

So all 2 watt gear is going to phase out .  I no longer own any 2 watt gear (well 9 fury usb sticks) 

and I have 1th at 1000 watts and soon to have  s-3's.

My guess is quite a few miners are moving selling shifting their 2 watt gear.   

the 200 days from dec 21st  2013 to july 9 2014  growth is about 18%

 the prior 200 days growth was 24%

the next 200 days growth will be under 18% my guess  stands at 13-15%.

 asics will hit a wall .5 watts or at best .2 watts.  this wall will be reached right around the next halving .  Should be very interesting to see it happen.

  Or will all growth be moved towards LTC/alt coins?

[TheJuice]

Well shit... In the bitmain threads they are saying the S3 isn't quite put together yet. That means the current hashrate increase wasn't from them and that there will be a bump once they start shipping them out.

I kinda hope they are lying to us and have been testing the S3's. So who is responsible for all that hashrate that was added recently?

KNC neptunes and asicminer gen3 probably played a role.

Also, according to my snooping at antminer's address https://blockchain.info/address/1QB8Ds5KbGYBLQa5RyDQ2sVUeSKWf7qgkZ it doesn't look like they have sold more than ~5000 S3s so far. This would only increase the difficulty a tiny 2% if everything got turned on at the same time.

We may finally, finally be seeing a plateau!

I think the issue now is the margins on the hardware are quickly dropping and it's just not worth it for manufactures to produce more machines.
 

I agree that diff will flatten .  And sooner  over later.

 take the pattern I use of replacing older gear with newer gear.  looking to get more hash better power decent price.

I am not the only person doing this.

 Now look at gear that does 2 watts per hash. 

And see that all 2 watt gear will not pay for power at a diff of 41 and btc at 620 usd. power at 15 cents.

So all 2 watt gear is going to phase out .  I no longer own any 2 watt gear (well 9 fury usb sticks) 

and I have 1th at 1000 watts and soon to have  s-3's.

My guess is quite a few miners are moving selling shifting their 2 watt gear.   

the 200 days from dec 21st  2013 to july 9 2014  growth is about 18%

 the prior 200 days growth was 24%

the next 200 days growth will be under 18% my guess  stands at 13-15%.

 asics will hit a wall .5 watts or at best .2 watts.  this wall will be reached right around the next halving .  Should be very interesting to see it happen.

  Or will all growth be moved towards LTC/alt coins?

From gpu -> 1st gen asics -> 2nf gen asics each jump was atleast an order of magnitude. Now we are seeing very small increases. Unless there is a breakthrough, increasing by even 50% efficiency will not move the diff.

[trek27]

Replacing could start to play important role when first (least efficient) last gen ASICs start to be unprofitable. Older hardware is not that important - under 15Ph in total. Switching off will be also more of a gradual process than overnight event - I could imagine enthusiast miners willing to pay for mining for at least some time.
I would bet without any breakthrough available chips (incl gen3 AM) should take us at least above 300Ph. Level for plateauing? - who knows.

Btw, last jump <10% was in May 2013, decrease in January 2013.

 

[lightfoot]

Honest thoughts: I think this is all my fault.

See, the math said two weeks ago that running my turbo jalapenos was no longer profitable at their 5w/gh power consumption. This is due partially to the lower efficiency of running a 5gh unit at 30+gh, along with the water blocks to cool it.

Last Friday I shut down my singles because with the 25% increase without a price boost my Singles were no longer profitable at 4w/gh. I have a feeling everyone else with 65nm class equipment did the same thing.

It is completely illogical to mine at a loss with electricity factored in. Completely and utterly illogical. So I think a number of farms shut down; you can't mine at a bitcoin price below that of the electricity used to mine.

This is why the Monarch chips are interesting; they can mine easily when others have to shut down. Unless you live next to a river or a volcano, this is not something you can get around easily :-)

C

(note: I will be hacking my Singles this weekend to run a lot slower and more efficient. This will help for awhile)

[philipma1957]

Honest thoughts: I think this is all my fault.

See, the math said two weeks ago that running my turbo jalapenos was no longer profitable at their 5w/gh power consumption. This is due partially to the lower efficiency of running a 5gh unit at 30+gh, along with the water blocks to cool it.

Last Friday I shut down my singles because with the 25% increase without a price boost my Singles were no longer profitable at 4w/gh. I have a feeling everyone else with 65nm class equipment did the same thing.

It is completely illogical to mine at a loss with electricity factored in. Completely and utterly illogical. So I think a number of farms shut down; you can't mine at a bitcoin price below that of the electricity used to mine.

This is why the Monarch chips are interesting; they can mine easily when others have to shut down. Unless you live next to a river or a volcano, this is not something you can get around easily :-)

C

(note: I will be hacking my Singles this weekend to run a lot slower and more efficient. This will help for awhile)

yeah all the above 2 watt gear is  getting turned off.


there is a lot of 2 watt gear s-1's  etc.  when it drops out

  growth will slow  down to 13-15 %.  maybe lower.

[navigator]

I sorta shutdown my bfl 63gh@330watts single when I got my s2 setup recently. The bfl is still on the profit side but its not much. I would probably clear $20 this month after power cost. I was thinking of giving it to a friend or donating it to someone before its no longer profitable for anyone. It has a low serial number 7xx and has been running since last august up until I turned it off. Should I keep it for an antique? Hah

Some people may want to operate at a small loss because mining is a way to get bitcoins without going through an exchange. So you could subtract the fee of what it would cost to buy coin on an exchange and mine at that percentage lost. Using your electricity to buy bitcoins basically.

Running the calcs for an S3 paying .07c/kwh, I could probably run it til 180 billion difficulty at current btc prices. I'm fairly confident btc prices will go up before then so I could possibly run even longer. I'm know I can get a good 3-6 months out of it and maybe longer but its hard to predict what will happen past 3 months from now. Some new asic could get produce and all sorts of other things.

Solar would be a nice option but takes forever to break even. After you do break even you could run everything til the equipment dies.

[TheJuice]

Looks like more power is coming online now. ?S3s. Looking like 4-6% range.

[ALToids]

Remember is a miner shut down 2W gear and they feel the need to completely populate all their electrical capacity they will put new miners online, so while they will take down an S1 they'll put up an S3 in it's place.

[ThomasCrowne]

Honest thoughts: I think this is all my fault.

See, the math said two weeks ago that running my turbo jalapenos was no longer profitable at their 5w/gh power consumption. This is due partially to the lower efficiency of running a 5gh unit at 30+gh, along with the water blocks to cool it.

Last Friday I shut down my singles because with the 25% increase without a price boost my Singles were no longer profitable at 4w/gh. I have a feeling everyone else with 65nm class equipment did the same thing.

It is completely illogical to mine at a loss with electricity factored in. Completely and utterly illogical. So I think a number of farms shut down; you can't mine at a bitcoin price below that of the electricity used to mine.

This is why the Monarch chips are interesting; they can mine easily when others have to shut down. Unless you live next to a river or a volcano, this is not something you can get around easily :-)

C

(note: I will be hacking my Singles this weekend to run a lot slower and more efficient. This will help for awhile)

Interested in lowering power consumption requirements for my 65-nm gear.  Have you made any progress on this front yet?

[xstr8guy]

I sorta shutdown my bfl 63gh@330watts single when I got my s2 setup recently. The bfl is still on the profit side but its not much. I would probably clear $20 this month after power cost. I was thinking of giving it to a friend or donating it to someone before its no longer profitable for anyone. It has a low serial number 7xx and has been running since last august up until I turned it off. Should I keep it for an antique? Hah

Some people may want to operate at a small loss because mining is a way to get bitcoins without going through an exchange. So you could subtract the fee of what it would cost to buy coin on an exchange and mine at that percentage lost. Using your electricity to buy bitcoins basically.

Running the calcs for an S3 paying .07c/kwh, I could probably run it til 180 billion difficulty at current btc prices. I'm fairly confident btc prices will go up before then so I could possibly run even longer. I'm know I can get a good 3-6 months out of it and maybe longer but its hard to predict what will happen past 3 months from now. Some new asic could get produce and all sorts of other things.

Solar would be a nice option but takes forever to break even. After you do break even you could run everything til the equipment dies.

Good luck trying to sell 1st gen gear for more than a pittance! If you didn't already do it several months ago, you're far too late. Even S1's are at giveaway prices, nevermind BFL, Avalon and ASICMiner gear. I held too long and have stacks of old miners collecting some serious dust.

The only hope is if BTC price shoots to the sky. The rise to $1200 saw used gear nearly quadruple in value on eBay almost overnight.

[ALToids]

I sorta shutdown my bfl 63gh@330watts single when I got my s2 setup recently. The bfl is still on the profit side but its not much. I would probably clear $20 this month after power cost. I was thinking of giving it to a friend or donating it to someone before its no longer profitable for anyone. It has a low serial number 7xx and has been running since last august up until I turned it off. Should I keep it for an antique? Hah

Some people may want to operate at a small loss because mining is a way to get bitcoins without going through an exchange. So you could subtract the fee of what it would cost to buy coin on an exchange and mine at that percentage lost. Using your electricity to buy bitcoins basically.

Running the calcs for an S3 paying .07c/kwh, I could probably run it til 180 billion difficulty at current btc prices. I'm fairly confident btc prices will go up before then so I could possibly run even longer. I'm know I can get a good 3-6 months out of it and maybe longer but its hard to predict what will happen past 3 months from now. Some new asic could get produce and all sorts of other things.

Solar would be a nice option but takes forever to break even. After you do break even you could run everything til the equipment dies.

Good luck trying to sell 1st gen gear for more than a pittance! If you didn't already do it several months ago, you're far too late. Even S1's are at giveaway prices, nevermind BFL, Avalon and ASICMiner gear. I held too long and have stacks of old miners collecting some serious dust.

The only hope is if BTC price shoots to the sky. The rise to $1200 saw used gear nearly quadruple in value on eBay almost overnight.

Yeah I was hoping that might happen last month then I could dump my Gen 1 miners.  Unfortunately now the miners make pretty much nothing, so that all anybody would pay.  4x$0 = $0 hehe.  Mine are sitting in an E-waste box waiting to go to recycling.

[skuser]

  Or will all growth be moved towards LTC/alt coins?

LTC scrypt hype is almost over. If you compare prices of SHA vs scrypt miners the SHA miners are at least at the same profitability level again (for $1.000 you can have app. 1 TH/s SHA or 20MH/s  scrypt hash power, results in: http://www.coinwarz.com/cryptocurrency/?sha256hr=1000.00&sha256p=1000.00&sha256pc=0.1000&sha256c=true&scrypthr=20000.00&scryptp=1000.00&scryptpc=0.1000&scryptc=true&e=Coinbase).
I smell bad scrypt mining industry crash very soon

[xstr8guy]

  Or will all growth be moved towards LTC/alt coins?

LTC scrypt hype is almost over. If you compare prices of SHA vs scrypt miners the SHA miners are at least at the same profitability level again (for $1.000 you can have app. 1 TH/s SHA or 20MH/s  scrypt hash power, results in: http://www.coinwarz.com/cryptocurrency/?sha256hr=1000.00&sha256p=1000.00&sha256pc=0.1000&sha256c=true&scrypthr=20000.00&scryptp=1000.00&scryptpc=0.1000&scryptc=true&e=Coinbase).
I smell bad scrypt mining industry crash very soon

Yep! If people thought the SHA ASIC carnage was bad, they haven't seen nothing yet.

Yes, there are other Scrypt coins other than LTC but honestly their only value is based on speculation. The future is PoS coins.

[philipma1957]

  Or will all growth be moved towards LTC/alt coins?

LTC scrypt hype is almost over. If you compare prices of SHA vs scrypt miners the SHA miners are at least at the same profitability level again (for $1.000 you can have app. 1 TH/s SHA or 20MH/s  scrypt hash power, results in: http://www.coinwarz.com/cryptocurrency/?sha256hr=1000.00&sha256p=1000.00&sha256pc=0.1000&sha256c=true&scrypthr=20000.00&scryptp=1000.00&scryptpc=0.1000&scryptc=true&e=Coinbase).
I smell bad scrypt mining industry crash very soon

  well off topic a bit but i did start it.  There has been a huge amount of gear sold.  I am extended into these area more then I would like .  I have 55mh in gridseed blades. (11 of them).
I see a problem in alt/coins. 

here it is: gaw Miners and zoomhash sell with pp and cc.  this makes buyers a bit more fearless due to protection of lack of delivery. I see this area of the market flooding with gear. LTC diff is sky rocketing.

[TheJohn]

Was hoping for bitcoin difficulty to drop too, but unfortunately its dreaming..

[lightfoot]

Interested in lowering power consumption requirements for my 65-nm gear.  Have you made any progress on this front yet?

Well, you can replace one of the two voltage sensing resistors to drop the chip voltage to .85-.9 volts. Then you can clock down to speed 1 and reduce the power to 2-3w/gh. The other thing I'm working on is removing the 3 top side FETs per power controller and replacing them with two 052ne2LSI's to reduce power loss in the supply stage.

With that you don't really have to run the fans on top anymore, my goal is to cool it with a single fan in the case end. That should lead to a quiet purring single hashing at 30ish gh instead of 50+.

C