Bitcoin difficulty may actually go down in ~7 days!

[philipma1957]

Interested in lowering power consumption requirements for my 65-nm gear.  Have you made any progress on this front yet?

Well, you can replace one of the two voltage sensing resistors to drop the chip voltage to .85-.9 volts. Then you can clock down to speed 1 and reduce the power to 2-3w/gh. The other thing I'm working on is removing the 3 top side FETs per power controller and replacing them with two 052ne2LSI's to reduce power loss in the supply stage.

With that you don't really have to run the fans on top anymore, my goal is to cool it with a single fan in the case end. That should lead to a quiet purring single hashing at 30ish gh instead of 50+.

C

getting way off topic but s3 undervolt/down clock really interests me.

I have a friends office where i can fit 2 or 3 s-3's and use up to 800 watts. must run quietly .  I ran 3 s-1's at 420gh and at 560 watts  for 2 months.

If the s-3 lets me go to 400gh at 240 watts I could do 3 and get 1.2th at 720 watts  .  this would be very good . at 3 cents a k-watt

they would run until feb or march with out  going past power cost.

I see spot mini mines as my future  in mining 1, 2 or 3 s-3's in a place with discount power. I have 2 or 3 locations in mind.

[cloverme]

The last difficulty increase was a deal killer to many of the people I know who were mining with various miners that were mining with gear totaling 3-4 th/s using more than 3000 watts. They shut down and sold their miners, all of them. I turned off 80% of my mining equipment at the last rise. Nice to see the next jump is not so high.

We need more efficient mining equipment that allows upgrading like the 2nd generation mining equipment had. You could upgrade with the difficulty increase and keep up your ROI with the curve. Now, you have to add too many watts per Th to maintain large difficulity rises. The mining equipment just keeps slamming more chips into a larger form factor requiring more power.

That being said, the network hash rate continues to rise along with difficulty with a decline in daily growth rate. So, miners are still upgrading equipment and adding more hashing power. The race continues....

[TheJuice]

The last difficulty increase was a deal killer to many of the people I know who were mining with various miners that were mining with gear totaling 3-4 th/s using more than 3000 watts. They shut down and sold their miners, all of them. I turned off 80% of my mining equipment at the last rise. Nice to see the next jump is not so high.

We need more efficient mining equipment that allows upgrading like the 2nd generation mining equipment had. You could upgrade with the difficulty increase and keep up your ROI with the curve. Now, you have to add too many watts per Th to maintain large difficulity rises. The mining equipment just keeps slamming more chips into a larger form factor requiring more power.

That being said, the network hash rate continues to rise along with difficulty with a decline in daily growth rate. So, miners are still upgrading equipment and adding more hashing power. The race continues....

This probably explains a lot of the initial drop after the rise. Most gen2 hardware is still +ev.

[Loophole]

Looks like we are going to have a low single digit increase this time.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty: 16,818,461,371
Estimated Next Difficulty: 17,690,934,100 (+5.19%)
Adjust time: After 412 Blocks, About 2.7 days

https://blockr.io/
Next difficulty (estimate)
17,015,651,269.97
1.17% change to current
412 blocks until difficulty changes

[philipma1957]

        https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty        btcwise says  =   17,691
            http://bitcoincharts.com/                              bitcoin charts =   17,140
                                                                             Total             =    34,831 / 2 =   17,415.5   which is  3.55 percent



So with 371 blocks left still under 5 percent.

What this does for me is help my  bottom line on my dragon miner purchased on april 20.

It is getting close to btc roi.  It has done usd roi due to price rise in btc. 

[Bitsaurus]

Meh and the S3 batch 1 sold out quickly.  Oh well, too late to jump on now.  I'm sure if I order 10 now I'll get mine delivered just in time to witness a large difficulty spike when they arrive 

[freedomno1]

Meh and the S3 batch 1 sold out quickly.  Oh well, too late to jump on now.  I'm sure if I order 10 now I'll get mine delivered just in time to witness a large difficulty spike when they arrive 

Hmm wonder how much that will impact the difficulty in the end
Lot of stuff coming online as usual but at least it was a brief slowdown 

[TheJuice]

Meh and the S3 batch 1 sold out quickly.  Oh well, too late to jump on now.  I'm sure if I order 10 now I'll get mine delivered just in time to witness a large difficulty spike when they arrive 

Hmm wonder how much that will impact the difficulty in the end
Lot of stuff coming online as usual but at least it was a brief slowdown 

.
Theres not that much left in the pipeline that I know of... the sp30s and the S3s. Am I missing anything

[philipma1957]

Meh and the S3 batch 1 sold out quickly.  Oh well, too late to jump on now.  I'm sure if I order 10 now I'll get mine delivered just in time to witness a large difficulty spike when they arrive 

Hmm wonder how much that will impact the difficulty in the end
Lot of stuff coming online as usual but at least it was a brief slowdown 

.
Theres not that much left in the pipeline that I know of... the sp30s and the S3s. Am I missing anything

Even if black arrow has tons of chips they are not efficient.  So they are not much to worry about.

[freedomno1]

Meh and the S3 batch 1 sold out quickly.  Oh well, too late to jump on now.  I'm sure if I order 10 now I'll get mine delivered just in time to witness a large difficulty spike when they arrive 

Hmm wonder how much that will impact the difficulty in the end
Lot of stuff coming online as usual but at least it was a brief slowdown 

.
Theres not that much left in the pipeline that I know of... the sp30s and the S3s. Am I missing anything

Don't think so mostly just a bunch of AM chips moving all over the place to BTCgarden Rockxie and the rest

[Bitsaurus]

Haven't heard anything from Bitfury.  Obviously they have money after feeding the beast that is ghash.io, so maybe they have some 20nm stuff they're keeping quiet about?

[freedomno1]

Haven't heard anything from Bitfury.  Obviously they have money after feeding the beast that is ghash.io, so maybe they have some 20nm stuff they're keeping quiet about?

You never know sometimes those sort of hashrate increases do appear and it takes the network a while to figure it out
But lets enjoy this quiet period while it lasts lol.

[RoadStress]

Haven't heard anything from Bitfury.  Obviously they have money after feeding the beast that is ghash.io, so maybe they have some 20nm stuff they're keeping quiet about?

No they don't.

[philipma1957]

with 213 blocks to go:

http://bitcoincharts.com/   >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 17,302

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  >>>>>> 17,576


total >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  34,878

avg >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 17,439

current  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 16,818


predicated increase >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 3.69 percent


So the op's bold guess is still looking okay as it appears this will be the smallest increase in over 1 year.

Remember another factor is it is the summer for more miners then it is the winter.

 No knock on the southern hemisphere.

Just more miners north of the equator.

So if you have marginal gear add in your ac cost and you are over the top.

5 s-1's cranked to 200gh each are 1th at 2000 watts.

that is a lot of heat  about 7000-8000 btu's

I would imagine a lot of miners that have s-1's are now undervolting and unerclocking.

those same 5 s-1's  can go to 700gh and 900 watts  which is under 3500 btus .

I would think that s-1's are more then 15 percent of the network.   

 if a lot are now lowered  that drops the network a lot

[Bitsaurus]

Those S1s are approaching negative profit for a lot of miners but I don't think some of the miners are calculating that.  Even if they are they are thinking "well if BTC goes up to $1200 then I should have mined for 2 more months".  They should be thinking "now I'll spend my saved electricity costs buying BTC" or "that S3 looks nice"

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

Looks like we are going to have a low single digit increase this time.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty: 16,818,461,371
Estimated Next Difficulty: 17,690,934,100 (+5.19%)
Adjust time: After 412 Blocks, About 2.7 days

https://blockr.io/
Next difficulty (estimate)
17,015,651,269.97
1.17% change to current
412 blocks until difficulty changes

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty is showing a ~3.2% increase now.

It appears that the rate that difficult is increasing is slowing down, but isn't quite coming to a halt yet.

[philipma1957]

Looks like we are going to have a low single digit increase this time.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty: 16,818,461,371
Estimated Next Difficulty: 17,690,934,100 (+5.19%)
Adjust time: After 412 Blocks, About 2.7 days

https://blockr.io/
Next difficulty (estimate)
17,015,651,269.97
1.17% change to current
412 blocks until difficulty changes

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty is showing a ~3.2% increase now.

It appears that the rate that difficult is increasing is slowing down, but isn't quite coming to a halt yet.

Well if you figure that until about july 10th of 2013  a gpu could earn enough btc to pay for the power it used.  and at best gpu's did around 300 watts a gh.

last summer gpu's dropped out of the network many replaced by little asic miner sticks.  but 3 sticks = 1gh  and the power was about 7-9 watts   or 300 to 9

power savings.  about 33.33 to one power drop.



now july 12 2014   a s-1 at 2 watts a gh is close to break even.

   buy an s-3     I go from 2 watts to .75 watts   or   2.667 to one power drop

growth will slow.  even if you toss in the price raise of 90 to 630  or 7 to 1      7 x 2.667 =     

18.667     vs  33.33      and it is not fair to  do that  since the price increase was already helping the s-1's

there is no reason for the network to grow at 16% the next 200 days…….


Of course   if price jumps well above the current 630 usd or if a new magic miner with real power savings like  .05 watts a gh come along growth will keep up.

I just don't see power savings ever going much past the .46  watts per hash of the sp30.

 So growth will flatten. Or price will rise a lot.  to keep growth high.

[kgb2mining]

I just don't see power savings ever going much past the .46  watts per hash of the sp30.

 So growth will flatten. Or price will rise a lot.  to keep growth high.

If 16nm tech comes out early next year then we could see another large growth spike.  Going to that size die will surely reduce power usage as well as heat, and then you can again make ROI a lot easier.

If you have cheap power, an S1 can still make ROI given what they're selling for now.  We just brought over 20 of them online and it's a 3.5:2 hash ratio compared to the S3.  7 S1's can be had for 2 S3's which if they're stable at 200Gh/s will net you 400Gh/s more than the S3.  The key is definitely the power usage.  Hoping to make enough BTC to upgrade to some SP30's in September then ride that out and see what next year brings.

[philipma1957]

I just don't see power savings ever going much past the .46  watts per hash of the sp30.

 So growth will flatten. Or price will rise a lot.  to keep growth high.

If 16nm tech comes out early next year then we could see another large growth spike.  Going to that size die will surely reduce power usage as well as heat, and then you can again make ROI a lot easier.

If you have cheap power, an S1 can still make ROI given what they're selling for now.  We just brought over 20 of them online and it's a 3.5:2 hash ratio compared to the S3.  7 S1's can be had for 2 S3's which if they're stable at 200Gh/s will net you 400Gh/s more than the S3.  The key is definitely the power usage.  Hoping to make enough BTC to upgrade to some SP30's in September then ride that out and see what next year brings.

if the s-3 can under clock / under volt like the s-1 it will be at .5-.6 watts  .

 say 400gh at 200-240 watt.  it will be better then a sp30

[R4v37]

I just don't see power savings ever going much past the .46  watts per hash of the sp30.

 So growth will flatten. Or price will rise a lot.  to keep growth high.

If 16nm tech comes out early next year then we could see another large growth spike.  Going to that size die will surely reduce power usage as well as heat, and then you can again make ROI a lot easier.

If you have cheap power, an S1 can still make ROI given what they're selling for now.  We just brought over 20 of them online and it's a 3.5:2 hash ratio compared to the S3.  7 S1's can be had for 2 S3's which if they're stable at 200Gh/s will net you 400Gh/s more than the S3.  The key is definitely the power usage.  Hoping to make enough BTC to upgrade to some SP30's in September then ride that out and see what next year brings.

if the s-3 can under clock / under volt like the s-1 it will be at .5-.6 watts  .

 say 400gh at 200-240 watt.  it will be better then a sp30

yeahhh
undervolt..

i prefer going at full power, play fast, mine fast, dump fast