Bitcoin difficulty may actually go down in ~7 days!

[philipma1957]

bitcoinwisdoms diff algos rely heavily of the previous change. Thus early on in an adjustment period it is basically saying the diff will inc by the prev amount. Right now my models show 2% increase.

My models rock.

Next difficulty looks like 7-9% based on expected delivery.

Actual increase was 8.08%. Rock on new models.

Next predicted difficulty increase: 4-6%

my simple model uses



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty >>>> 19285


http://bitcoincharts.com/    >>>>>>>>>>>>>   18886


total-----------------------------------------------------38171/2 =  19085.5    this is 1.86 %

[lightfoot]

Very interesting. I turn off my miners, difficulty increases collapse.

Makes sense, everything revolves around me of course. But still I do think we have hit a point of equilibrium. The fact that a small drop in bitcoin price is being mirrored in mining power seems to point to this.

Very. Interesting.

[FeodoroAndy]

It is interesting, but i think it is more related to summer time, when it is hard to keep miners cool.

[DrG]

Well there is the undeniable fact that so far almost every major company has failed to ROI BTC except some early Avalon, some of the Jupiters and Bitmain gear.  People got burned on Cointerra, KNC's private farm killing their new Jupiter and Neptunes profit, and that massive hashfast bankruptcy didn't help. When all the major players for the most part suck maybe people are realizing they need to think before jumping in.

Look at dogie's miner rating thread - pretty much every company gets an F for ethics because of their private pools and premines.

[freedomno1]

Look at dogie's miner rating thread - pretty much every company gets an F for ethics because of their private pools and premines.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=456691.0

True enough a fair number of high scores but a Failure in the ethics department.
I still get but then again there is no A in that section just a Blank lol.

Ethics?
All companies start with 10 points, and lose points for various infractions. The key is as follows:  
   F     = Operates own mining farm = -2
   FF   = Operates own large mining farm = -4
   P     = Evidence of premining on preordered equipment = -2
   BFL = BFL'ing = -9
   B    = Bankrupt = -9
   O    = Other   generic unethical behaviour = -5
  

[philipma1957]

Look at dogie's miner rating thread - pretty much every company gets an F for ethics because of their private pools and premines.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=456691.0

True enough a fair number of high scores but a Failure in the ethics department.
I still get but then again there is no A in that section just a Blank lol.

Ethics?
All companies start with 10 points, and lose points for various infractions. The key is as follows:  
   F     = Operates own mining farm = -2
   FF   = Operates own large mining farm = -4
   P     = Evidence of premining on preordered equipment = -2
   BFL = BFL'ing = -9
   B    = Bankrupt = -9
   O    = Other   generic unethical behaviour = -5
  

BFL'ing a classic  thank you for the laugh!

[lightfoot]

Funny, but really harsh on BFL. They did deliver the Singles/65nm technology, it was quite good stuff, so their scores should be higher.

I'd also give them serious kudos for releasing the source code and the schematics so tweakers like me could do stuff. No other manufacturer seems to have done that.

C

[jjc326]

It's my understand from doing the math that if the difficulty increase is less than 17% then you will profit from joining the cloud mining entity in my sig.  So if really it's only a small increase that would be huge for profitability.  But like others have said you can't get much from day to day variance.

[lightfoot]

It's my understand from doing the math that if the difficulty increase is less than 17% then you will profit from joining the cloud mining entity in my sig.  So if really it's only a small increase that would be huge for profitability.  But like others have said you can't get much from day to day variance.

Nothing quite like a good multi-level-marketing scam. :-)

[freedomno1]

Hmm well opened another Mining Speculation thread but if Asicminer starts putting up the hash it says it will then Bitcoin difficulty might start spiking within a few weeks if not in the next 7 days lol.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=715480.0

Update

1. Due to the relatively lower interest from individual miners as well as OEM producers, the self mining has re-started from middle of July. We had gain access of cheap electricity and high power capacity. We hope to regain the average hashrate percentage similar to 2013 with this generation of chips.

Documented history of AM's hashrate for the people who forget those things or weren't around back then.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkPdXsQFT-vIdHRVUjQ5Ql9BQWR6OENLMkhyUktUblE#gid=9

And upcoming interview with Friedcat

Upcoming interview with Friedcat:
http://www.bitell.com/t/2026

So that will be fun for the hashrate lol.

[jjc326]

It's my understand from doing the math that if the difficulty increase is less than 17% then you will profit from joining the cloud mining entity in my sig.  So if really it's only a small increase that would be huge for profitability.  But like others have said you can't get much from day to day variance.

Nothing quite like a good multi-level-marketing scam. :-)

Just in case you thought I got something if someone clicks my sig, I don't.

I do think some cloud hashing sites are total crap and too good to be true (so they probably are) but some seem legit and lay out all the facts, saying you may or may not make a profit.  Those are the ones I would think would be more legit.

[RoadStress]

Hmm well opened another Mining Speculation thread but if Asicminer starts putting up the hash it says it will then Bitcoin difficulty might start spiking within a few weeks if not in the next 7 days lol.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=715480.0

Update

1. Due to the relatively lower interest from individual miners as well as OEM producers, the self mining has re-started from middle of July. We had gain access of cheap electricity and high power capacity. We hope to regain the average hashrate percentage similar to 2013 with this generation of chips.

Documented history of AM's hashrate for the people who forget those things or weren't around back then.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkPdXsQFT-vIdHRVUjQ5Ql9BQWR6OENLMkhyUktUblE#gid=9

And upcoming interview with Friedcat

Upcoming interview with Friedcat:
http://www.bitell.com/t/2026

So that will be fun for the hashrate lol.

I am reserved about that announcement. They have the chips, but putting them to work still requires A LOT of money for PCBs and the rest of the components + money for the DCs setup.

Let's say they have 60PH worth of chips in hand. Considering a low 0.5$/GH cost to put them to work (everything included even the DC) they still need 30M$ for that. Not sure that they have that money available.

[freedomno1]

Hmm well opened another Mining Speculation thread but if Asicminer starts putting up the hash it says it will then Bitcoin difficulty might start spiking within a few weeks if not in the next 7 days lol.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=715480.0

Update

1. Due to the relatively lower interest from individual miners as well as OEM producers, the self mining has re-started from middle of July. We had gain access of cheap electricity and high power capacity. We hope to regain the average hashrate percentage similar to 2013 with this generation of chips.

Documented history of AM's hashrate for the people who forget those things or weren't around back then.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkPdXsQFT-vIdHRVUjQ5Ql9BQWR6OENLMkhyUktUblE#gid=9

And upcoming interview with Friedcat

Upcoming interview with Friedcat:
http://www.bitell.com/t/2026

So that will be fun for the hashrate lol.

I am reserved about that announcement. They have the chips, but putting them to work still requires A LOT of money for PCBs and the rest of the components + money for the DCs setup.

Let's say they have 60PH worth of chips in hand. Considering a low 0.5$/GH cost to put them to work (everything included even the DC) they still need 30M$ for that. Not sure that they have that money available.

We are talking about Asicminer though it doesn't seem far out of their capacity to have that much money lying around for investment and they have the facilities and everything set up from their Gen 1.
Might take some time to convert the chips on hands to miners though but its direct to farm so that's a plus.

They did have quite the haul from 2013 mining and we do have their financial documents from a few months ago so its a plausible deceleration.
Worse bets could be taken
I'm not sure where you get the 30 million figure from though since Gen 1 was made with much less if I recall correctly.
Anyways worth keeping a watch on this for now.

Update

Financials
Balance sheet in May 27, 2014:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12wJMe3A6Ie8ris86m2OJ_1vucurdcVtM3fDkNCjKIRI/edit?usp=sharing

Cash flow from Feb 28, 2014 to May 27, 2014:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1phCAhMR-9_AaRXKICfN_M7gw4rI1hsOtRD_6PElmLOM/edit?usp=sharing

Comments about Recent News & Concerns
Policy: The bank deposits and third-party payment systems for Bitcoin exchanges in China are all closed. Workarounds exist (like buying physical cards with deposit code) but the real trading volume is severely affected.

Conversion: We have OTC conversion channels to trade USD for Bitcoins in Hong Kong.

[DrG]

Wow everybody has already forgotten those massive hashrates on BTCGuild last year when AM and Avalon were pretty much the only shows in town (oh excuse my ignorance, Luke did have his Single hashing at BFL's lab).

I'm sure friedcat has the $30 mil available for full development - afterall this was the original crowdfunded ASIC company.  How much miners in total did they end up selling with blades and eruptors and cubes?

[philipma1957]

 rates are drifting up.  more s-3's are shipping. maybe some sp30's


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty ----------- 19,670

http://bitcoincharts.com/ --------------------------------- 19,101

total ---------------------------------------------------------- 38,771

Avg ------------------------------------------------------------ 19,385.5

current rate ------------------------------------------------- 18,736


so 18,736 to 19,385.5  = 3.46 percent jump with about 1311 blocks to go

[xstr8guy]

rates are drifting up.  more s-3's are shipping. maybe some sp30's


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty ----------- 19,670

http://bitcoincharts.com/ --------------------------------- 19,101

total ---------------------------------------------------------- 38,771

Avg ------------------------------------------------------------ 19,385.5

current rate ------------------------------------------------- 18,736


so 18,736 to 19,385.5  = 3.46 percent jump with about 1311 blocks to go

Word has it that Bitfury is also loading up a new massive DC too. And don't forget about all of the other big vendor-controlled DCs that continue to grow and the new private farms starting up every week.

[philipma1957]

rates are drifting up.  more s-3's are shipping. maybe some sp30's


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty ----------- 19,670

http://bitcoincharts.com/ --------------------------------- 19,101

total ---------------------------------------------------------- 38,771

Avg ------------------------------------------------------------ 19,385.5

current rate ------------------------------------------------- 18,736


so 18,736 to 19,385.5  = 3.46 percent jump with about 1311 blocks to go

Word has it that Bitfury is also loading up a new massive DC too. And don't forget about all of the other big vendor-controlled DCs that continue to grow and the new private farms starting up every week.

Bitfury has great power prices they have access to very low power prices under 4 cents a kwatt.

So if they run under volted old chips that use 1 watt a gh they are still ahead of the game .

Hey how is this for a conspiracy:

  Putin helps them with power because he wants global warming to accelerate .  His goal is to melt out the ice caps by 2050.  Why is that Russia is a cold weather country and stands to be much less damaged then most of the world when the icecaps melt out.

  The USA realizing this is sending  3 satellites into space they will orbit in a triangle holding a 1 square mile piece of mylar film designed to shade the south pool and prevent Putin's master plan.


This will be the new James Bond Movie for summer of 2015  with huge BTC references and cause the price of BTC to drop then soar.

[philipma1957]

back to reality next jump set to be about 5 or 6 percent.  comes in about 94 blocks or 14 hours.

we move from 18,736  to 19,700   .


why 5 or 6% jumps   pretty simple.


1)  asics are hitting a power wall seems to be .5watts a hash
2) summertime mining needs cooling
3) btc price close to 600 usd
4) a lot of borderline gear  running at 2 watts so when  you buy new power saving gear you drop the old gear off your grid.  or you undervolt it.  at one time the s-1 was 20 percent of the net work  it pulled 2 watts  so  say the 20 percent was 20ph.  now that  20 ph runs at  lower freq and lower volts say it is doing 12ph  that means 8ph was pulled off the market.

I won't say 20 percent jumps will never happen again  they will.  But only if BTC price makes it worth while.

 my asic breakdowns at 200 day avg

were 25%  june 2013 to dec 2013

then 18%  dec 2013 to  july 2014


My guess is 12%  july 2014 to jan 2015


2 big  factors are btc price stays around 600

asics dont get past .5 watts a hash.

[GrandMasterB]

rates are drifting up.  more s-3's are shipping. maybe some sp30's


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty ----------- 19,670

http://bitcoincharts.com/ --------------------------------- 19,101

total ---------------------------------------------------------- 38,771

Avg ------------------------------------------------------------ 19,385.5

current rate ------------------------------------------------- 18,736


so 18,736 to 19,385.5  = 3.46 percent jump with about 1311 blocks to go

Word has it that Bitfury is also loading up a new massive DC too. And don't forget about all of the other big vendor-controlled DCs that continue to grow and the new private farms starting up every week.

Bitfury has great power prices they have access to very low power prices under 4 cents a kwatt.

So if they run under volted old chips that use 1 watt a gh they are still ahead of the game .

Hey how is this for a conspiracy:

  Putin helps them with power because he wants global warming to accelerate .  His goal is to melt out the ice caps by 2050.  Why is that Russia is a cold weather country and stands to be much less damaged then most of the world when the icecaps melt out.

  The USA realizing this is sending  3 satellites into space they will orbit in a triangle holding a 1 square mile piece of mylar film designed to shade the south pool and prevent Putin's master plan.


This will be the new James Bond Movie for summer of 2015  with huge BTC references and cause the price of BTC to drop then soar.

3 tickets please! 1 for the gf and I and another for me to see it again!

[philipma1957]

rates are drifting up.  more s-3's are shipping. maybe some sp30's


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty ----------- 19,670

http://bitcoincharts.com/ --------------------------------- 19,101

total ---------------------------------------------------------- 38,771

Avg ------------------------------------------------------------ 19,385.5

current rate ------------------------------------------------- 18,736


so 18,736 to 19,385.5  = 3.46 percent jump with about 1311 blocks to go

Word has it that Bitfury is also loading up a new massive DC too. And don't forget about all of the other big vendor-controlled DCs that continue to grow and the new private farms starting up every week.

Bitfury has great power prices they have access to very low power prices under 4 cents a kwatt.

So if they run under volted old chips that use 1 watt a gh they are still ahead of the game .

Hey how is this for a conspiracy:

  Putin helps them with power because he wants global warming to accelerate .  His goal is to melt out the ice caps by 2050.  Why is that Russia is a cold weather country and stands to be much less damaged then most of the world when the icecaps melt out.

  The USA realizing this is sending  3 satellites into space they will orbit in a triangle holding a 1 square mile piece of mylar film designed to shade the south pool and prevent Putin's master plan.


This will be the new James Bond Movie for summer of 2015  with huge BTC references and cause the price of BTC to drop then soar.

3 tickets please! 1 for the gf and I and another for me to see it again!

  They make that movie I will send them to you fedex over nite.