the One Year Prediction thread

[BTCtrader71]

I am starting this thread so that people can put their predictive power to the test. I want users -- bulls and bears! -- to answer the question:

What developments will we see in the bitcoin space between now and one year from now?

You can make your prediction at any time. The one year is measured relative to the time you post your prediction. Predictions can relate to adoption, price, new uses of crypto, anything that relates to the bitcoin space and would make it to the news.

Once July 2015 rolls around, we can start evaluating whose predictions were right and whose predictions were wrong.  

So: after you make a prediction, plan on coming back a year later (or sooner) and commenting on whether your prediction turned out to be correct or not.

Also, feel free to quote other people's predictions in your own posts. That way people can't edit their predictions down the line!

[isov]

-Proper exchanges in the U.S for the big money guys running. (more than one)
-Price of a bitcoin 7000-10000$
-Miners are pretty much all big corporations and such, no more guys living in moms basement.
-Big credit card companies have integrated bitcoin in some way
-Amazon, Ebay, FB and most of international big companies accept bitcoin payments.

[BTCtrader71]

I predict that between now and one year from now,

• At least one major oil producing company / country / entity will be selling oil in bitcoin.
• The price in USD will have crossed 15,000 using the Coindesk price index.
• Amazon, Paypal, and eBay will be accepting payment in bitcoin.
• The remaining 100,000+ SR coins will have been auctioned by the US Marshals office, and the price will rise afterwards.
• The transformative power of DACs / DAOs will begin to become apparent, and even bitcoin bulls will be blown away by their awesomeness.
• There will be at least one major company that will collapse and take a lot of peoples bitcoins with it, with destructive power at least half that of Gox.
• Professor Bitcorn will still be proclaiming that Bitcoin is a bubble about to burst.

[hacknoid]

Within one year a current, established "traditional" financial institution (such as bank or credit union) will offer:

• Bitcoin exchange to/from local currency
• A "bitcoin savings account" - hold people's coins (for a price)

[ThatDGuy]

Wow.  I hope you all are right - I thought my price prediction of July next year being $3k-$6k was leaning towards optimistic!

[chopstick]

You fools are all low-balling it. It will be at a very minimum 10k, I think probably more like 40-50k per coin by July 2015.

[GangkisKhan]

1k-5k USD.

[SunBin]

1k or higher.

[BTCtrader71]

You fools are all low-balling it. It will be at a very minimum 10k, I think probably more like 40-50k per coin by July 2015.

I predict that one year from now, Stephen Reed's (aka Slippery Slope's) model will continue to prove itself. His model [1] predicts the baseline to be around $20,000 by July 1, 2015, with a range anywhere from as low as 1/2 or 1/3 to as high as 2 or 3 x the baseline. The timing of the ups and downs is harder to predict than the baseline, but I would not be surprised to see us hit an ATH soon, crash, then hit another ATH by July 1. Depending on the timing, that could give us at an ATH of 40k-60k within the next year.

IOW, I agree with you, chopstick The reason I lowballed it is that I'd like to be able to tell people a year from now that I predicted a ridiculously huge increase in market value and still underestimated it  

[1] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=1

EDIT: His current calculations put us at $25k, not $20k, on July 1, 2015.

[blatchcorn]

$100,000 Bitcoin.  Mark. My. Words.

[BTCtrader71]

$100,000 Bitcoin.  Mark. My. Words.

Possible. Unlikely imho, but possible.

Part of my rationale in saying that is that I think the fluctuations above and below the log-trendline should slowly decrease over time.

[vuduchyld]

I'll follow Abraham Lincoln's advice to keep one's mouth shut and let people think one is a fool.  It's better than opening one's mouth and removing all doubt.  

Really, there are way too many variables to make accurate predictions.  Even if you subscribe to an adoption-based price model, there are plenty of unknowns about adoption rates, acceptance, laws and regulations, and more.  Making predictions for next year is pretty tough.

[BTCtrader71]

Really, there are way too many variables to make accurate predictions.  Even if you subscribe to an adoption-based price model, there are plenty of unknowns about adoption rates, acceptance, laws and regulations, and more.  Making predictions for next year is pretty tough.

True. But it behooves us to make out best guess, nonetheless. As long as we don't kid ourselves about the degree of certainty / uncertainty.

[Torque]

5000-6000 by July 2015.  10K by December 2015.

And no I'm not high, this is VERY achievable.  If I've underestimated, even better.

[Taras]

$100,000 Bitcoin.  Mark. My. Words.

Yeah right. If it happens, I'll give you a thousand dollars worth of bitcoin.

[Skele]

Amazon, eBay, Google, Western Union, Paypal ? 5k - 6k for the next July 15th seems realistic to me... Holly ! let's buy !

[blatchcorn]

$100,000 Bitcoin.  Mark. My. Words.

Yeah right. If it happens, I'll give you a thousand dollars worth of bitcoin.

Sweet thank you

[zimmah]

I agree with btc trader71 on the logistic charts

It's likely the chart holds true even in a year, or at least it's close to it. So a price as high as $50000 during a peak (that could hit by July next year) is not entirely impossable.

In fact it's pretty likely.

[gr8n8]

I agree with btc trader71 on the logistic charts

It's likely the chart holds true even in a year, or at least it's close to it. So a price as high as $50000 during a peak (that could hit by July next year) is not entirely impossable.

In fact it's pretty likely.

when bitcoin was 100 i never thought we would be at 300 and 400 so fast.. and all the predictions of $1000 per BTC seemed a bit crazy...
and i assume the same would have been felt for people who watched prices from $<10 to $100
the possibility of 10x price increase is not crazy anymore - and i think with the network effect and BTC only getting stronger every day actually more likely

[oda.krell]

My guesses for mid-2015. Informed intuition, nothing more.

Worst case (< 50% likelihood): Between $500 and $900.

Best case (< 50% likelihood): brief peak to $10,000, but would probably sharply drop from there.

Most likely case: Between $1000 and $3000.