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Author Topic: call an end to the rally  (Read 10791 times)
altoid
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April 29, 2011, 03:22:54 AM
 #1

After some analysis tonight, I have come to the conclusion that the most likely end to the current rally will be at 1 btc = $4.54.  When I say end, I mean a major top will form and the price will drop at least 33% from there.  I will be putting in a sell order at $4.25 for my entire account as soon as I transfer my bitcoins there.  I'll go a step further and call an end to the drop at around parity.

Anyone else have any predictions for a top?  Anyone think it will go up and up forever without any major pull-backs?
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kiba
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April 29, 2011, 03:24:31 AM
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I don't make prediction. Don't speculate on bitcoin anymore.

MoonShadow
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April 29, 2011, 03:26:16 AM
 #3

How did you come up with a top of $4.54?

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
benjamindees
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April 29, 2011, 03:48:37 AM
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Hmm this gives me an idea.  Let's see if I agree with you.

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altoid
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April 29, 2011, 05:53:42 AM
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kiba sounds like he's been burned by the market.  sorry bro Sad

I came up with $4.54 using elliott wave theory guidelines.
Alex Beckenham
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April 29, 2011, 07:46:44 AM
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I don't know about the top, but I think the new bottom will be around $1.40-ish.

I can't picture it getting back to $1, but it's always a bit of a surprise.

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April 29, 2011, 09:06:12 AM
 #7

I see too much upside to risk predicting a top and selling.  If I see a top starting to form and change mind, I'd like to resolve myself now to avoid some of that upside risk and speculate with only half of my holdings.

The market is growing rapidly, but still very thin.  That's one reason why the tech-not-so-savvy tend to poo-pooh or scoff upon becoming aware of their fashionably not too late arrival.  But it keeps growing despite.  We have the article in Forbes.  What's next, WSJ, FT, and Bloomberg?

After this stunning growth, if the market seems to be acting overly-bearish from time to time, it is probably the result of manipulation by a big player.  Besides manipulation, at this point the only thing I can think of that could turn the sentiment bearish would be an intervention by LEO or some other loss of deposits (try to keep your wallet full and keep it with you).





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ribuck
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April 29, 2011, 10:02:31 AM
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The arrest of Satoshi would end the rally promptly, I think. Let's just hope he doesn't have sex in Sweden.
altoid
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April 29, 2011, 04:27:59 PM
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don't speculate, hoard!

bitcoin grows 10 times every 6 month... Unbelievable!


correction, HAS grown.  If you want to capture those amazing returns, you have to have an exit strategy.
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April 29, 2011, 08:38:05 PM
 #10

If you want to capture those amazing returns, you have to have an exit strategy.

What does one exit into?  Already overvalued precious metals?  Inflationary fiat currencies?

"A small body of determined spirits fired by an unquenchable faith in their mission can alter the course of history." --Gandhi
benjamindees
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April 29, 2011, 08:41:10 PM
 #11

What does one exit into?  Already overvalued precious metals?  Inflationary fiat currencies?

Hookers and blow.

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April 29, 2011, 08:47:58 PM
 #12

If you want to capture those amazing returns, you have to have an exit strategy.

What does one exit into?  Already overvalued precious metals?  Inflationary fiat currencies?

I plan to ease into yachts and mansions.

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
shackleford
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May 01, 2011, 05:00:27 AM
 #13

I don't know .. people may try technical analysis on it but I don't know if it really applies. If the economy itself develops and people see the benefit to using bitcoin causing demand.. I don't know if technicals can predict that or the absence of it. Just the gambling community with the government doing all their shenanigans to gaming sites could fuel a long term demand.
nuggets4all
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May 01, 2011, 06:02:44 AM
 #14

Bitcoin is such a small market that it has huge upside potential given any sort of mainstream move into BTC. The Forbes article and the CIA meeting are just the tip of the iceberg. I'm betting on a 10:1 BTC to USD ratio inside a year, barring a successful propaganda campaign and subsequent crackdown against Bitcoin. Don't get me wrong though, I fully expect any sort of crackdown to look something like this:


1FmU8DBU7CpM4jqNMeMvwtVBKjuyyDLWss
TiagoTiago
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May 01, 2011, 06:55:49 AM
 #15

The arrest of Satoshi would end the rally promptly, I think. Let's just hope he doesn't have sex in Sweden.
I would think it would be quite the contrary, that would attract mroe attention towards Bitcoin, more people wanting to buy suddenlly == bigger prices

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

Wanna gimme some BTC for any or no reason? 1FmvtS66LFh6ycrXDwKRQTexGJw4UWiqDX Smiley

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May 01, 2011, 08:41:32 AM
 #16

It's downhill from here.  Without an easy way to convert BTC --> USD, you'll lose the interest of many smaller-time speculators and miners.  Paypal shutting down coincard is a nail in the coffin...

Here's to hoping someone finds a clever way around it!
error
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May 01, 2011, 09:46:20 AM
 #17

It's downhill from here.  Without an easy way to convert BTC --> USD, you'll lose the interest of many smaller-time speculators and miners.  Paypal shutting down coincard is a nail in the coffin...

Here's to hoping someone finds a clever way around it!

Losing PayPal is a minor inconvenience at worst. And long-term, PayPal will be the loser there. Grin

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TiagoTiago
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May 01, 2011, 09:50:51 AM
 #18

But we're in for quite a ride till there is a good alternative for converting fiat into BTC and vice versa in most parts of the world

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

Wanna gimme some BTC for any or no reason? 1FmvtS66LFh6ycrXDwKRQTexGJw4UWiqDX Smiley

The more you believe in Bitcoin, and the more you show you do to other people, the faster the real value will soar!

Do you like mmmBananas?!
ArsenShnurkov
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May 01, 2011, 03:47:22 PM
 #19

Let's just hope he doesn't have sex in Sweden.

Something is already happened there:

http://www.google.com/trends?q=bitcoin&date=mtd



nuggets4all
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May 01, 2011, 04:16:49 PM
 #20

It's downhill from here.  Without an easy way to convert BTC --> USD, you'll lose the interest of many smaller-time speculators and miners.  Paypal shutting down coincard is a nail in the coffin...

Here's to hoping someone finds a clever way around it!

Hardly a nail in the coffin. If there's one thing the open-source community has shown, it's that they can find clever ways around just about any obstruction.

Paypal fears Bitcoin...

"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." -Ghandi

1FmU8DBU7CpM4jqNMeMvwtVBKjuyyDLWss
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