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Question: When will difficulty cross 1e06 ?
Before Aug. 1 2011 - 6 (21.4%)
Aug. 1 - Nov. 2011 - 5 (17.9%)
Nov. 2011 - Jan. 2012 - 7 (25%)
Jan. - Dec 2012 - 8 (28.6%)
Never - 2 (7.1%)
Total Voters: 28

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Author Topic: Mining difficulty to cross 1 million when?  (Read 2970 times)
marcus_of_augustus
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April 29, 2011, 10:11:14 AM
 #1

Now that difficulty is foregone conclusion to cross 100,000 (who woulda thunk?) please estimate when next ten-folding, i.e. order of magnitude increase, in network hash power and difficulty will occur?

(At current exponential growth rate it will be around 3 months time, Early August, 2011.)

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April 29, 2011, 04:22:38 PM
 #2

When did it cross 10,000?

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marcus_of_augustus
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April 30, 2011, 01:57:27 AM
 #3

When did it cross 10,000?

Correct answer ..... on the log10 plot it took 3-4 months to go from 10,000 to 100,000 so we can expect to cross 1 mill around august I'm picking.

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April 30, 2011, 02:11:39 AM
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lol so this was a pop quiz?

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April 30, 2011, 03:12:08 AM
 #5

From Bitcoin Charts:

Quote
Estimated   419656 in 2012 blks

Although it's early in the period, so it's hard to say how accurate that is. Still doesn't bode well for people who rushed out to buy hardware.
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April 30, 2011, 03:15:19 AM
 #6

From Bitcoin Charts:

Quote
Estimated   419656 in 2012 blks

I think it's getting confused because of the recent change in difficulty; it's presumably taking a moving average of the blocks found in some recent time period and then multiplying it by the present difficulty, not a weighted average of the past and present difficulties.  It should even out relatively shortly, depending on the time period it's using to conduct the estimate.

Probably correct. It should be interesting to follow it.
ghost
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April 30, 2011, 03:51:28 AM
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It looks like some blocks were found in rapid succession right after the difficulty change which caused that high estimate.
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April 30, 2011, 05:18:20 PM
 #8

The new estimate 146977
tomcollins
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April 30, 2011, 08:23:14 PM
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I've been working on a difficulty model, it needs some work, but I'm predicting November 8, 2011.
marcus_of_augustus
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April 30, 2011, 09:45:46 PM
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I've been working on a difficulty model, it needs some work, but I'm predicting November 8, 2011.

nice accuracy ... are you going to publish the model, i'd be interested to see it at least, probably others too?

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