Nowcasting the Bitcoin Market with Twitter Signals
http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1406/1406.7577.pdfINTRODUCTION
Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer electronic cash system [Nakamoto 2009] and a leading global open-source cryptocurrency [Kroll et al. 2013]. It uses cryptography to control the creation and transfer of money, while transactions are broadcasted as digitally signed messages to the shared public network, the ’block chain’. Bitcoins can be obtained by mining 2 or in exchange for products, services, or other currencies. According to The Wall Street Journal [2013], the commercial use of bitcoin still seems comparable small, mainly as a result of high and risky price volatilities. However, there are signals of traction in retail business and elsewhere, where bitcoins are increasingly accepted in transactions. While the value of all bitcoin is currently totaling about $12.5 billion,3 and steadily increasing, news coverage in the recent months pointed towards the legitimate use of the virtual currency, its taxation and the circumstance it might support the trade of illicit goods and services [The Economist 2013]. Noteworthy, a recent breakdown of the mayor exchange platform Mt.Gox on February 25th 2013 marked a setback for Bitcoin traders and observers.
