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Author Topic: Could I drive up the Bitcoin price with a clearing purchase?  (Read 4405 times)
cypherdoc
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March 10, 2012, 03:37:17 PM
 #21

the most likely catastrophe is an attack on mtgox by either hackers or the gov't.
Which would kill the price anyway.

Also I doubt they will be hacked into again. But the US government attack remains, true.

but at least you'd still have your btc's tucked away in your own wallet and not on some gov't computer.  another exchange would emerge to take gox's place and the price would recover eventually.
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March 10, 2012, 03:42:40 PM
 #22

the most likely catastrophe is an attack on mtgox by either hackers or the gov't.
Which would kill the price anyway.

Also I doubt they will be hacked into again. But the US government attack remains, true.

but at least you'd still have your btc's tucked away in your own wallet and not on some gov't computer.  another exchange would emerge to take gox's place and the price would recover eventually.
OK, I agree that one should have a certain portion of BTC holding offline, depending on personal preference. I plan on arranging such a thing myself, but I want to do it in a way that will make me unable to access the coins until a certain date or event, so that I am guaranteed to hold. Any idea? Grin

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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March 10, 2012, 03:43:22 PM
 #23

add this; i would create an air gapped wallet for cold storage.
Personally what what I never liked about this option is that I might get to learn about some impending catastrophe and wish to sell immediately, not after 6 blocks. I want my Bitcoins liquid.

I trust Gox pretty much now, so I don’t mind using them as a "bank".

Can't you import private keys into MtGox?  Doesn't that circumvent the confirmation wait time?
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March 10, 2012, 03:44:24 PM
 #24

add this; i would create an air gapped wallet for cold storage.
Personally what what I never liked about this option is that I might get to learn about some impending catastrophe and wish to sell immediately, not after 6 blocks. I want my Bitcoins liquid.

I trust Gox pretty much now, so I don’t mind using them as a "bank".

Can't you import private keys into MtGox?  Doesn't that circumvent the confirmation wait time?

no, it still needs 6 confirmations for some ridiculous reason

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March 10, 2012, 03:47:20 PM
 #25

add this; i would create an air gapped wallet for cold storage.
Personally what what I never liked about this option is that I might get to learn about some impending catastrophe and wish to sell immediately, not after 6 blocks. I want my Bitcoins liquid.

I trust Gox pretty much now, so I don’t mind using them as a "bank".

Can't you import private keys into MtGox?  Doesn't that circumvent the confirmation wait time?

no, it still needs 6 confirmations for some ridiculous reason

Why is that ridiculous? You give them a copy of your private key, so you still have it yourself. They have to protect themselves from a double spend with the same private key.

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March 10, 2012, 04:02:29 PM
 #26

the most likely catastrophe is an attack on mtgox by either hackers or the gov't.
Which would kill the price anyway.

Also I doubt they will be hacked into again. But the US government attack remains, true.

but at least you'd still have your btc's tucked away in your own wallet and not on some gov't computer.  another exchange would emerge to take gox's place and the price would recover eventually.
OK, I agree that one should have a certain portion of BTC holding offline, depending on personal preference. I plan on arranging such a thing myself, but I want to do it in a way that will make me unable to access the coins until a certain date or event, so that I am guaranteed to hold. Any idea? Grin

use armory, copy the private key for your stash, code it if it isn't already then set up a boomerang service email to yourself for the future date, do this with a couple of other services too & maybe a paper copy of the same with a lawyer that is irrefutable, destroy the original copy of the private key & voila an effective time safe

set up a secondary, third recipients to have access to your email account (eg, in your will - or by the above method but able to cancel) & to be told about this & how it works in case you have set the notification too far in to the future when you're not actually around any more

edit: I haven't looked in to if they offer an unchangeable future date service or if you would need to make an account which was non retrievable & then to destroy the user name & password (both 23 chars random generated from lastpass.com) to it after setting it up or something so that you were permanently locked out from it - lol it could make a good film script, imagine you going to different hypnotists to try & get those recalled after the gods of irony decide to make you have to change your mind about it

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March 10, 2012, 04:06:18 PM
 #27

Thank you very much! Will definitely check this out.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
proudhon
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March 10, 2012, 04:15:31 PM
 #28

Look at the volume in currency exactly a year ago.  An $85,000 buy would have catapulted the price in terms of percent increase.  Today, not so much.

2011/3/1 to 2011/3/10 (hourly)


2012/3/1 to 2012/3/10 (hourly)
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March 10, 2012, 04:22:52 PM
 #29

yeah, i think Armory will be the definitive offline solution.  let him clean the bugs up a bit before using though.
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March 10, 2012, 04:24:24 PM
 #30

edited my reply in my last post above to add some tweaks

re OP, wait for a low volume lull where the price has been stuck for a while, preferably where your big buy would trigger a trend line break that many were watching & waiting to go all in on, like right this W/E for instance Wink then what you don't need on Gox to do this with, place long at your max leverage on Bitkoinica (& tip your friends off to do the same) & then immediately pull the trigger, sell half the Bitkoinica gains & send them to Gox, buy more & try to cascade the price up maybe, drop me a PM first & I'll lend you a hand with it, I've growing a little bored with my IPO GOOGs Grin


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proudhon
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March 10, 2012, 04:25:32 PM
 #31

edited my reply above to add tweaks

re OP, wait for a low volume lull where the price has been stuck for a while, preferably where your big buy would trigger a trend line break that many were watching, like right this W/E for instance Wink then what you don't need on Gox to do this with place long at your max leverage on Bitkoinica & then immediately pull the trigger, sell half the Bitkoinica gains send to Gox, buy more & try to cascade the price up maybe, drop me a PM first & I'll lend you a hand with it Grin



Quick, everyone buy!
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March 10, 2012, 04:30:44 PM
 #32

Daily volume in currency for February 2011:


Daily volume in currency for February 2012:


The slowest day in 2012 moved more than twice the volume in currency of the highest volume day of 2011 over the same period.  That's impressive.
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March 10, 2012, 04:34:07 PM
 #33

yeah, i think Armory will be the definitive offline solution.  let him clean the bugs up a bit before using though.

I wonder too if he could build a time lock in to it, that'd be cool & an all in one solution, may have a big demand for many purposes - could be one of Bitcoin's undiscovered super uses & appeal to HNW individuals, say like rock starts or sport's ones or celebs that are cashing it in atm but it all may end fast & they also have youthful costly bad habits that they wish to hedge against for their old age, 30s - 40s or more, something that was tinker proof because it had an auto destruct built in for if you tried to

edit: or for crims when they know that they're going down for a long stretch or needed plausible deny-ability to pass a lie detector test to say that they no longer retained any control of those ill-gotten funds, peeps wishing to set up bigger charitable foundations than they can afford as yet, lock it in for a couple of centuries & voila your BitNobel prizes are good to go, or for when you're about to tie the knot with that half your age stripper in Las Vegas/Pattaya & if it lasts more than 5 months/years your stashed wealth reappears - this should probably be done at the first stage of falling in love/lust with her/him (Hi Brucey) in any case

edit 2: or when you've just bought $85,000 worth of coins @ $4.80 to $5.00 & you don't want to risk being manipulated into selling or shorting with them for n days/w/m or years or better yet the armory would lock them down until they had reached a certain price, or with staggered release at set levels - both with if/or/& preferences, ie release 1,000 if/when the price gets to twice what you'd paid, say $9.65 - release 1,000 on 2015 01 01 - release 1,000 after the 2014 01 01 only if the price is over $8.50 - release some/all if the price falls/rises by x% - release some (or random amount) at random (settable random difficulty) for the lulz etc...

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March 10, 2012, 06:15:27 PM
 #34

yeah, i think Armory will be the definitive offline solution.  let him clean the bugs up a bit before using though.

I wonder too if he could build a time lock in to it, that'd be cool & an all in one solution, may have a big demand for many purposes - could be one of Bitcoin's undiscovered super uses & appeal to HNW individuals, say like rock starts or sport's ones or celebs that are cashing it in atm but it all may end fast & they also have youthful costly bad habits that they wish to hedge against for their old age, 30s - 40s or more, something that was tinker proof because it had an auto destruct built in for if you tried to

edit: or for crims when they know that they're going down for a long stretch or needed plausible deny-ability to pass a lie detector test that they no longer retained any control of those funds, peeps wishing to set up bigger charitable foundations than they can afford as yet, lock it in for a couple of centuries & voila your BitNobel prizes are good to go, or for when you're about to tie the knot with that half your age stripper in Las Vegas/Patayar & if it lasts more than 5 years your stashed wealth reappears - this should probably be done at the first stage of falling in love/lust with her/him (Hi Brucey) in any case

edit 2: or when you've just bought $83,000 worth of coins @ $4.80 to $5.00 & you don't want to risk being manipulated into selling or shorting with them for n days/w/m or years or better yet the armory would lock them down until they had reached a certain price, or with staggered release at set levels - both with if/or/& preferences, ie release 1,000 if/when the price gets to twice what you'd paid, say $9.65 - release 1,000 on 2015 01 01 - release 1,000 after the 2014 01 01 only if the price is over $8.50 - release some/all if the price falls/rises by x% - release some (or random amount) at random (settable random difficulty) for the lulz etc...

I don't think this is really possible in software, especially open source, since anyone could easily modify the code to bypass the time delays. The only way to do it would be to require CPU time like mining. In hardware its a good bit easier. I could burn a private key into a microcontroller and enable code protect so it can't be read out with a programmer/debugger. The code on the micro won't output the key until a certain number of timer interrupts have passed. The only disadvantage would be that you'd have to keep it powered 24/7 for years, but its not that big of a deal if you don't, it just adds that much more time before you can get the key. They only use a few mA, and the low power ones a few uA. A battery would last around a year.

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March 10, 2012, 06:25:30 PM
 #35

OK, I agree that one should have a certain portion of BTC holding offline, depending on personal preference. I plan on arranging such a thing myself, but I want to do it in a way that will make me unable to access the coins until a certain date or event, so that I am guaranteed to hold. Any idea? Grin

Not sure if it works, but there's "nLockTime" you can set to some date in the future on a tx.

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March 10, 2012, 06:28:34 PM
 #36

yeah, i think Armory will be the definitive offline solution.  let him clean the bugs up a bit before using though.

I wonder too if he could build a time lock in to it, that'd be cool & an all in one solution, may have a big demand for many purposes - could be one of Bitcoin's undiscovered super uses & appeal to HNW individuals, say like rock starts or sport's ones or celebs that are cashing it in atm but it all may end fast & they also have youthful costly bad habits that they wish to hedge against for their old age, 30s - 40s or more, something that was tinker proof because it had an auto destruct built in for if you tried to

edit: or for crims when they know that they're going down for a long stretch or needed plausible deny-ability to pass a lie detector test that they no longer retained any control of those funds, peeps wishing to set up bigger charitable foundations than they can afford as yet, lock it in for a couple of centuries & voila your BitNobel prizes are good to go, or for when you're about to tie the knot with that half your age stripper in Las Vegas/Patayar & if it lasts more than 5 years your stashed wealth reappears - this should probably be done at the first stage of falling in love/lust with her/him (Hi Brucey) in any case

edit 2: or when you've just bought $83,000 worth of coins @ $4.80 to $5.00 & you don't want to risk being manipulated into selling or shorting with them for n days/w/m or years or better yet the armory would lock them down until they had reached a certain price, or with staggered release at set levels - both with if/or/& preferences, ie release 1,000 if/when the price gets to twice what you'd paid, say $9.65 - release 1,000 on 2015 01 01 - release 1,000 after the 2014 01 01 only if the price is over $8.50 - release some/all if the price falls/rises by x% - release some (or random amount) at random (settable random difficulty) for the lulz etc...

I don't think this is really possible in software, especially open source, since anyone could easily modify the code to bypass the time delays. The only way to do it would be to require CPU time like mining. In hardware its a good bit easier. I could burn a private key into a microcontroller and enable code protect so it can't be read out with a programmer/debugger. The code on the micro won't output the key until a certain number of timer interrupts have passed. The only disadvantage would be that you'd have to keep it powered 24/7 for years, but its not that big of a deal if you don't, it just adds that much more time before you can get the key. They only use a few mA, and the low power ones a few uA. A battery would last around a year.

Is there no software that you could program to wipe all data if either re-opened or tampered with in any way before the due release date for the data on it or does it have to be some physical? I like your micro-controller with burnt in private key & timer though, you should patent it & what's the min power requirement, could it be set up for solar, I have a compass that's light has being going for years with some safe (hopefully) radioactive element to it, but also might be an addvantage for it to need power as if you choose to extend the release date then you just unpower it for however long you wish to have extra added on as you say, but no way to speed it up - I'd go for one of those np  Smiley

edit: sry - don't know how I missed that when you gave all the power needed detail, a battery per year seems fine or wire it into a plug for another item or something that runs from the mains but with battery back up, like the alarm system inside your safe

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March 10, 2012, 07:46:06 PM
 #37

Hi guys,
  I currently am sitting on 175 shares of AAPL stock. For those of you who are aware, Apple shares are trading at rough $550,00 USD. I am planning to liquidate my holding and am thinking of reinvesting in Bitcoin.

Would a purchase of $85,000 of BTC drive up the price significantly?


This is not a troll post, I am genuinely interested.

Thanks for your time,
Omni

the thing is you DONT want to drive up the price....

look at http://mtgoxlive.com/orders, the blue line is people trying to sell bitcoins

if you hover your mouse on this blue line and go up you will see how much USD you will need to buy it up

right now your buy would bring us to about 5$

but truth is you dont want to do this...

what you want to do is wait for a nice ask wall to appear near the current price, that way you can get most of your coins cheep!

you wont drive up the price very much with this order. but once the market realizes it has 18,000 less coins to work with .... price will rise naturally

if i was you, i would first buy 500$ worth, to get use to all the different tools bitcoin market has to offer & and learn more about bitcoin.


 

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March 10, 2012, 08:32:12 PM
 #38

btw, i put on a short of AAPL this past week.  its at the end of a parabola and now with Jobs gone i can't see a path anywhere but down for the stock.

You had better tell the large middle class in China not to buy any more Apple stuff.  Because they love it.  With gross margins north of 50% Apple has a lot more cash to make around the world. 

Also with the high resale value of Apple stuff, owners of Apple products tend to go right out and purchase the latest model and sell their old one EVEN THOUGH THE OLD ONE IS PERFECTLY USABLE AND DID NOT NEED TO BE REPLACED.  These leads to huge new sales on items like the iPad 3 and the iPhone 4s.  The used sales seem to, instead of cannibalizing new sales, encourage new entrants into the world of Apple.  These users end up getting hooked and become potential new product buyers as well. 

I had a substantial amount of AAPL, bought between 90 and 220.  I have sold 1/2 of it so far (above $500) but I am not thinking short is a good idea.  AAPL is still a money making machine. 

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March 10, 2012, 08:58:05 PM
 #39

I had a substantial amount of AAPL, bought between 90 and 220.  I have sold 1/2 of it so far (above $500) but I am not thinking short is a good idea.  AAPL is still a money making machine. 

The problem is that a lot was under Steve Jobs' very high profile and very hands-on approach in attention to detail. That could easily be compromised with another "Pepsi-guy", though I don't think that is currently the case.

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March 10, 2012, 11:29:36 PM
 #40

Guys thanks for all of the sweet replies. The IQ on this board is some of the highest I've seen on a forum.
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