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Author Topic: I think we're in a bull trap after all  (Read 3479 times)
Hunterbunter
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March 12, 2012, 12:53:36 PM
 #1



If this was really a reversal, I believe it should have taken out $6 within a week or two of hitting $4.50, and I think that's what's driving the "must buy now!!" desperation typical of people realizing they're caught in a bull trap. Judging from this graph, $3.5 still looks like a good whip target (log scale...wherever that little orange flat arrow is hitting...maybe $4).

I believe we're in a stalemate because there are still too many bears, and an equal number of people believe it's the upwards reversal too soon. This is my attempt at persuading some bulls to become temporary bears and profit from the new imbalance in the short term, both because I also want to profit, and because I want to sleep sometime this month. Going from the charts, every day that the price doesn't rise to $6 increases the likelihood of a short term snap downwards, based on low volume, bearish RSI, weak MACD, and the magnet that is the SMA200. Volume is insanely low today, and I'm offering an alternative viewpoint which may resonate with you.

There was an attempted rally yesterday which was stopped flat before it even got to $5, and continued trending ever so slowly downwards. As always, draw your own conclusions from this and my post.
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proudhon
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March 12, 2012, 01:04:20 PM
 #2

u are wrong

Why so bullish all the sudden?
Hunterbunter
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March 12, 2012, 01:05:12 PM
 #3

u are wrong

About what?
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March 12, 2012, 02:41:55 PM
 #4

I've already been a temporary bull, I've been waiting for movement of any kind to tell me what direction it is going in. I want that dip but was prepared to buy if it got over $5.0-5.15.  Come on 3.50!
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March 12, 2012, 03:21:25 PM
 #5

My play money is sitting on the side lines. None of my shorts are getting filled because BTC
prices does not break 5.

And in other news, I wish i could get an interest rate that bitcoinica offers at a real bank. sigh!
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March 12, 2012, 04:38:05 PM
 #6

My play money is sitting on the side lines. None of my shorts are getting filled because BTC
prices does not break 5.

And in other news, I wish i could get an interest rate that bitcoinica offers at a real bank. sigh!

You are looking to short above $5? Scary stuff...  If anything I would short now and then get out if it breaks above $5
Kluge
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March 12, 2012, 04:40:07 PM
 #7

Perhaps it's time to start offering markets betting if Bitcoin will be moving anywhere significant in the next few weeks.

Don't mix your coins someone said isn't legal
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March 12, 2012, 04:55:08 PM
 #8

Perhaps it's time to start offering markets betting if Bitcoin will be moving anywhere significant in the next few weeks.

Long Term Stability --> Bitcoin is Good --> Upward trend to follow

If I were a betting man, I'd bet we'll be >= $6 in a month from now.

Please do not pm me, use ron@bitcoin.org.il instead
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fcmatt
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March 12, 2012, 05:13:35 PM
 #9

My play money is sitting on the side lines. None of my shorts are getting filled because BTC
prices does not break 5.

And in other news, I wish i could get an interest rate that bitcoinica offers at a real bank. sigh!

You are looking to short above $5? Scary stuff...  If anything I would short now and then get out if it breaks above $5

Not really in my mind. Lets say someone(s) buys up to 15K in BTC right this second. My shorts may very well get filled.
It would take another 15K of BTC purchase to make my short solid in the red. So the price would go up to $5.19.
I feel that is not going to happen right now. I doubt there is enough confidence to get past 5.20 but there is just enough
to get to 5.05-5.10 or so. Thus a short in case that happens.

My shorts are staggered between 4.95 to 5.02.

When it does happen for a small moment in time someone(s) will hammer the price down below 5 again in short order with 1000s of
BTC being sold.

The reverse is also true right now. Go long at 4.60-4.70 area if you can get it. That is about the only way to make money
speculating at this time. Market swings and catching it at the right area.

Keep in mind this is just play money from mining sitting at Bitcoinica. Not big money. I have no long term thoughts at this moment.

That is the plan.
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March 12, 2012, 05:24:28 PM
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My play money is sitting on the side lines. None of my shorts are getting filled because BTC
prices does not break 5.

And in other news, I wish i could get an interest rate that bitcoinica offers at a real bank. sigh!

You are looking to short above $5? Scary stuff...  If anything I would short now and then get out if it breaks above $5

Not really in my mind. Lets say someone(s) buys up to 15K in BTC right this second. My shorts may very well get filled.
It would take another 15K of BTC purchase to make my short solid in the red. So the price would go up to $5.19.
I feel that is not going to happen right now. I doubt there is enough confidence to get past 5.20 but there is just enough
to get to 5.05-5.10 or so. Thus a short in case that happens.

My shorts are staggered between 4.95 to 5.02.

When it does happen for a small moment in time someone(s) will hammer the price down below 5 again in short order with 1000s of
BTC being sold.

The reverse is also true right now. Go long at 4.60-4.70 area if you can get it. That is about the only way to make money
speculating at this time. Market swings and catching it at the right area.

Keep in mind this is just play money from mining sitting at Bitcoinica. Not big money. I have no long term thoughts at this moment.

That is the plan.

I do agree in a sense that people are only mostly thinking about breaking $5 psychological barrier when there is another nice hurdle @ $5.2 to solidify any rally as well.

I'm certain you are not the only one looking to trade as such. Which adds to the reality that just like $7.2 happened 3times after $7, that $5.2 will likely happen as well.

It also just happens that $5.2 is also near 38.2 fib line based on the rise from $2.1-$7.2 whereas $5 is just a number..
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March 12, 2012, 06:35:39 PM
 #11



If this was really a reversal, I believe it should have taken out $6 within a week or two of hitting $4.50, and I think that's what's driving the "must buy now!!" desperation typical of people realizing they're caught in a bull trap. Judging from this graph, $3.5 still looks like a good whip target (log scale...wherever that little orange flat arrow is hitting...maybe $4).

I believe we're in a stalemate because there are still too many bears, and an equal number of people believe it's the upwards reversal too soon. This is my attempt at persuading some bulls to become temporary bears and profit from the new imbalance in the short term, both because I also want to profit, and because I want to sleep sometime this month. Going from the charts, every day that the price doesn't rise to $6 increases the likelihood of a short term snap downwards, based on low volume, bearish RSI, weak MACD, and the magnet that is the SMA200. Volume is insanely low today, and I'm offering an alternative viewpoint which may resonate with you.

There was an attempted rally yesterday which was stopped flat before it even got to $5, and continued trending ever so slowly downwards. As always, draw your own conclusions from this and my post.

Your analysis is based on four previous bull runs up. That is hardly a "standard" to be using as a measuring stick of what should happen with the price. Remember that when those to previous moves happened the bitcoin community was about 1/5 of what it is now.
Hunterbunter
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March 12, 2012, 08:55:25 PM
 #12

Your analysis is based on four previous bull runs up. That is hardly a "standard" to be using as a measuring stick of what should happen with the price. Remember that when those to previous moves happened the bitcoin community was about 1/5 of what it is now.

Fair enough, why is it flat then?
fcmatt
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March 12, 2012, 09:37:15 PM
 #13

Your analysis is based on four previous bull runs up. That is hardly a "standard" to be using as a measuring stick of what should happen with the price. Remember that when those to previous moves happened the bitcoin community was about 1/5 of what it is now.

Fair enough, why is it flat then?

The people with money do not want to buy.
The people with BTC do not want to sell.

Too simple?
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March 12, 2012, 09:47:24 PM
 #14

The shorts below 5 $ are a great bait for bulls, if they decide to take it...

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Cosbycoin
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March 12, 2012, 09:54:36 PM
 #15

Your analysis is based on four previous bull runs up. That is hardly a "standard" to be using as a measuring stick of what should happen with the price. Remember that when those to previous moves happened the bitcoin community was about 1/5 of what it is now.

Fair enough, why is it flat then?

Same reason it was relatively flat on first blue up arrow a first?

Just be patient bro.
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March 12, 2012, 09:55:28 PM
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The shorts below 5 $ are a great bait for bulls, if they decide to take it...

Perhaps you are right but then...let's wait and see.... Roll Eyes
Hunterbunter
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March 12, 2012, 10:08:58 PM
 #17

Your analysis is based on four previous bull runs up. That is hardly a "standard" to be using as a measuring stick of what should happen with the price. Remember that when those to previous moves happened the bitcoin community was about 1/5 of what it is now.

Fair enough, why is it flat then?

Same reason it was relatively flat on first blue up arrow a first?

Just be patient bro.

Even that first one had a big sell off before price could rise...I didn't mark it, but you can see it.

My theory is that the bulls can't play until the bears are satisfied.
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March 12, 2012, 10:13:33 PM
 #18

The shorts below 5 $ are a great bait for bulls, if they decide to take it...

Lol there are more longs.
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March 12, 2012, 10:19:17 PM
 #19

The shorts below 5 $ are a great bait for bulls, if they decide to take it...

Perhaps you are right but then...let's wait and see.... Roll Eyes

I am not saying I am right, just saying that this would be a springboard to create a big short squeeze.

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Hunterbunter
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March 12, 2012, 11:58:06 PM
 #20

The shorts below 5 $ are a great bait for bulls, if they decide to take it...

Perhaps you are right but then...let's wait and see.... Roll Eyes

I am not saying I am right, just saying that this would be a springboard to create a big short squeeze.

If you have that sort of power, it makes more sense to squeeze out all the existing over-leveraged bulls first, taking their leveraged coins at a lower price, then riding the wave from there.

But anyway, I guess me bringing this up is moot. Bull and Bear traps are only traps because people genuinely believe the price is going to go a particular way.

This is the longest period of no movement in like...bitcoin history. What amazes me is that even the heavy $$ seem to be sitting on the sidelines, when all it takes is like 20k-40k btc in either direction to pretty much guarantee explosive momentum.

It's broken out of the trend line, as far as I can tell, but there's some serious doubt about that in the market. The point I was trying to make with the OP is that on trend reversals people psychologically need a major backtest of the old trend to be "sure" the trend is over. I suppose that will come in its own time.
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