Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Prediction. $4000-$6500 by August/September 2014.

[colinistheman]

Here is my Bitcoin price prediction on a drawn graph.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/aA0zaAFD/

I use a logarithmic scale.

There is a pattern of about 7.3 to 7.8 months between each bitcoin price spike top.

The bull run should begin any day now. The price should be moving up steadily in 2 weeks.

To be conservative, I would say the price of a single bitcoin will reach over $4,000 but per this graph it should actually reach $6,500. It's just hard to imagine!

$4,000 - $6,500 bitcoin by September 2014.

[Biodom]

Here is my Bitcoin price prediction on a drawn graph.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/aA0zaAFD/

I use a logarithmic scale.

There is a pattern of about 7.3 to 7.8 months between each bitcoin price spike top.

The bull run should begin any day now. The price should be moving up steadily in 2 weeks.

To be conservative, I would say the price of a single bitcoin will reach over $4,000 but per this graph it should actually reach $6,500. It's just hard to imagine!

$4,000 - $6,500 bitcoin by September 2014.

nice chart, but this prediction assumes that everything will repeat itself exactly, which is unlikely. i agree, however, that next "bubble" would be at least $6000, but could be as high as 60000 (if 2011 pattern will repeat itself). The timing of such 'bubble", however, is completely unknowable.

[spazzdla]

I think the next bubble will be utterly utterly insane.. with an equal crash(it will stay + 3k or 10k depending on the top).  IMO stock market crash... soonish not soon.

[MNDan]

I try to believe this, but I don't see where the money would come from even within the next 2 YEARS. The difficulty of adding another 90 billion to the market cap is a VERY large jump IMHO.

[Taras]

I don't see it happening. Where is all this money going to come from?

[colinistheman]

I don't see it happening. Where is all this money going to come from?

From investor's bank accounts

[ArticMine]

I don't see it happening. Where is all this money going to come from?

From investor's bank accounts

Not just bank accounts. It can also comes from the sale of gold and stocks. A 100x rise in the BTC/USD rate could really shake up the gold market since the bitcoin market would then represent 10% of the gold market.

Edit: Bitcoin is a direct competitor to gold when it comes to "Austrian" / "Hard Currency" assets.  

[ArticMine]

I think the next bubble will be utterly utterly insane.. with an equal crash(it will stay + 3k or 10k depending on the top).  IMO stock market crash... soonish not soon.

Imho hyperinflation needs to become undeniable first, its already underway but it just looks like booming markets at the mo.

There is no need for an inflationary collapse of USD in order for BTC to rise in purchasing power by 100x or even 1000x. This scenario could also prove very bearish for gold. The Keynesians get watch on the sidelines, loosing 1%-2% a year, while a massive transfer of Austrian wealth from gold to bitcoin takes place.

[ArticMine]

I think the next bubble will be utterly utterly insane.. with an equal crash(it will stay + 3k or 10k depending on the top).  IMO stock market crash... soonish not soon.

Imho hyperinflation needs to become undeniable first, its already underway but it just looks like booming markets at the mo.

There is no need for an inflationary collapse of USD in order for BTC to rise in purchasing power by 100x or even 1000x. This scenario could also prove very bearish for gold. The Keynesians get watch on the sidelines, loosing 1%-2% a year, while a massive transfer of Austrian wealth from gold to bitcoin takes place.

It could, there's a lot of surplus out there and if even a small part of it is waiting to jump on the train it would be an incomprehensible rise. I meant hyperinflation will likethe excely be obvious before stock markets crash and if that happens then Bitcoin stands a strong chance of taking on the SDR as when it peaks its a reference point to fiat values and the rest of those are completely distorted.

There is no need to hyperinflation in order for the stock market to collapse. We can have a deflationary downturn / depression as occurred in the 1930s. One thing to keep in mind is growth in excess bank reserves in the US. This means the multiplier effect of fractional reserve banking in not taking place. Bitcoin can do extremely well in such a scenario because it is still in the ramp up stage; however gold would get slaughtered. USD may ironically rise with respect most assets with exception of Bitcoin and some of the "senior" alt currencies.

[UnDerDoG81]

I wonder when Sony will allow to pay with bitcoins on the Playstation store. Just read comments on an forum that the payment with paypal or credit card is not working at the moment. Buying games from the us store and live in europe.

And it must also become very easy to buy bitcoins. As easy as going to an atm and pay out cash. Or even easier. I think then we can talk about 10k bitcoins

[theonewhowaskazu]

I think the next bubble will be utterly utterly insane.. with an equal crash(it will stay + 3k or 10k depending on the top).  IMO stock market crash... soonish not soon.

Imho hyperinflation needs to become undeniable first, its already underway but it just looks like booming markets at the mo.

There is no need for an inflationary collapse of USD in order for BTC to rise in purchasing power by 100x or even 1000x. This scenario could also prove very bearish for gold. The Keynesians get watch on the sidelines, loosing 1%-2% a year, while a massive transfer of Austrian wealth from gold to bitcoin takes place.

It could, there's a lot of surplus out there and if even a small part of it is waiting to jump on the train it would be an incomprehensible rise. I meant hyperinflation will likethe excely be obvious before stock markets crash and if that happens then Bitcoin stands a strong chance of taking on the SDR as when it peaks its a reference point to fiat values and the rest of those are completely distorted.

There is no need to hyperinflation in order for the stock market to collapse. We can have a deflationary downturn / depression as occurred in the 1930s. One thing to keep in mind is growth in excess reserves in the US. This means the multiplier effect of fractional reserve banking in not taking place. Bitcoin can do extremely well in such a scenario because it is still in the ramp up stage; however gold would get slaughtered. USD may ironically rise with respect most assets with exception of Bitcoin and some of the "senior" alt currencies.

You do know what those excess reserves mean right? If they pull them out and start lending, which is ironically what is likely to happen if interest rates go UP without the bribe rate (the interest rate on excess reserves) going up, an extra $26 Trillion can work its way into the M2. That would constitute an increase greater than 200%. Thats one really wound up spring ready to snap back.

In order for that not to happen, they have to do two things. Suppress the earnings of financial institutions so owner's equity doesn't creep into those reserves, and keep the bribe rates at least as they are right now proportional to mortgage and other forms of lending that "leads into the economy."

[ArticMine]

I think the next bubble will be utterly utterly insane.. with an equal crash(it will stay + 3k or 10k depending on the top).  IMO stock market crash... soonish not soon.

Imho hyperinflation needs to become undeniable first, its already underway but it just looks like booming markets at the mo.

There is no need for an inflationary collapse of USD in order for BTC to rise in purchasing power by 100x or even 1000x. This scenario could also prove very bearish for gold. The Keynesians get watch on the sidelines, loosing 1%-2% a year, while a massive transfer of Austrian wealth from gold to bitcoin takes place.

It could, there's a lot of surplus out there and if even a small part of it is waiting to jump on the train it would be an incomprehensible rise. I meant hyperinflation will likethe excely be obvious before stock markets crash and if that happens then Bitcoin stands a strong chance of taking on the SDR as when it peaks its a reference point to fiat values and the rest of those are completely distorted.

There is no need to hyperinflation in order for the stock market to collapse. We can have a deflationary downturn / depression as occurred in the 1930s. One thing to keep in mind is growth in excess reserves in the US. This means the multiplier effect of fractional reserve banking in not taking place. Bitcoin can do extremely well in such a scenario because it is still in the ramp up stage; however gold would get slaughtered. USD may ironically rise with respect most assets with exception of Bitcoin and some of the "senior" alt currencies.

You do know what those excess reserves mean right? If they pull them out and start lending, which is ironically what is likely to happen if interest rates go UP without the bribe rate (the interest rate on excess reserves) going up, an extra $26 Trillion can work its way into the M2. That would constitute an increase greater than 200%. Thats one really wound up spring ready to snap back.

In order for that not to happen, they have to do two things. Suppress the earnings of financial institutions so owner's equity doesn't creep into those reserves, and keep the bribe rates at least as they are right now proportional to mortgage and other forms of lending that "leads into the economy."

In order to have a loan one needs both a willing lender and a willing borrower. If there is no willing borrower there is no loan no matter how willing the lender is.

[Chef Ramsay]

I wonder what will happen when certain people cash out their Bitcoins at whatever price back into their bank accounts via Coinbase? Like, when a coin is worth $3500 for example and someone cashes out 10 and $35k comes into their account out of nowhere. Does Coinbase have something worked out w/ banks that won't make them put a hold on an account when such lump sums come flying in? Not a matter of if but when this type of thing happens.

[theonewhowaskazu]

I wonder what will happen when certain people cash out their Bitcoins at whatever price back into their bank accounts via Coinbase? Like, when a coin is worth $3500 for example and someone cashes out 10 and $35k comes into their account out of nowhere. Does Coinbase have something worked out w/ banks that won't make them put a hold on an account when such lump sums come flying in? Not a matter of if but when this type of thing happens.

They'll just lower limits.

Coinbase is the most regulated and most scammy exchange ever. Honestly i've lost 0 BTC through gox and at LEAST 5 through coinbase.

[SunBin]

I think the next bubble will be utterly utterly insane.. with an equal crash(it will stay + 3k or 10k depending on the top).  IMO stock market crash... soonish not soon.

Imho hyperinflation needs to become undeniable first, its already underway but it just looks like booming markets at the mo.

I don't think hyperinflation will occur in US. British decline is gradual and austerity measure did kick in after people realize the insanity can not continue.

[elebit]

Honestly i've lost 0 BTC through gox and at LEAST 5 through coinbase.

Now that's a comparison you just don't want to make.

Coinbase may have their issues but they're not scammers like Karpeles.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

You do know what those excess reserves mean right? If they pull them out and start lending, which is ironically what is likely to happen if interest rates go UP without the bribe rate (the interest rate on excess reserves) going up, an extra $26 Trillion can work its way into the M2. That would constitute an increase greater than 200%. Thats one really wound up spring ready to snap back.

In order for that not to happen, they have to do two things. Suppress the earnings of financial institutions so owner's equity doesn't creep into those reserves, and keep the bribe rates at least as they are right now proportional to mortgage and other forms of lending that "leads into the economy."

Are you talking about the excess reserves that banks hold at the US Fed or something else?  The latest data puts those reserves at around $2.6T, not $26T.  That's still a lot, obviously, but only about 20% of M2 instead of 200%.

See the Federal Reserve site for the latest data: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/current/

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

I don't see it happening. Where is all this money going to come from?

From investor's bank accounts

Not just bank accounts. It can also comes from the sale of gold and stocks. A 100x rise in the BTC/USD rate could really shake up the gold market since the bitcoin market would then represent 10% of the gold market.

Edit: Bitcoin is a direct competitor to gold when it comes to "Austrian" / "Hard Currency" assets.  

IMO, the biggest upcoming investment opportunity (and thus opportunity for a price increase) is a bitcoin ETF.  If the Winklevoss Twins can get theirs listed in the next few months, that would have the potential to bring in many more millions of investment dollars.  If that touched off a rally, all the ATMs that have come online in the last several months could add a lot of fuel to that fire.

[Wolf Rainer]

We will see it soon, i hope you right but i really doubt it.

[ArticMine]

You do know what those excess reserves mean right? If they pull them out and start lending, which is ironically what is likely to happen if interest rates go UP without the bribe rate (the interest rate on excess reserves) going up, an extra $26 Trillion can work its way into the M2. That would constitute an increase greater than 200%. Thats one really wound up spring ready to snap back.

In order for that not to happen, they have to do two things. Suppress the earnings of financial institutions so owner's equity doesn't creep into those reserves, and keep the bribe rates at least as they are right now proportional to mortgage and other forms of lending that "leads into the economy."

Are you talking about the excess reserves that banks hold at the US Fed or something else?  The latest data puts those reserves at around $2.6T, not $26T.  That's still a lot, obviously, but only about 20% of M2 instead of 200%.

See the Federal Reserve site for the latest data: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/current/

2.6T USD of excess reserves can generate an increase of 26T USD in M2 because the reserve requirement is at most 10%. http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm. For each dollar the Federal Reserve prints the banks can print an additional nine dollars because of fractional reserve banking.