Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Prediction. $4000-$6500 by August/September 2014.

[kashish948]

The fact us NOBODY KNOWS THE FUTURE PRICE.

[Gianluca95]

Too much hard that price will reach 4000$ by August/September. You saying that market cap will increase by 10x from the actual, namely from 8 billion to 80 billion..

[wobber]

Too much hard that price will reach 4000$ by August/September. You saying that market cap will increase by 10x from the actual, namely from 8 billion to 80 billion..

While I don't believe the price can go so high, I know that it wouldn't take 72 billion to go there. If we would get 20-30 million on each exchange today, price would go up like hell.

[elebit]

You saying that market cap will increase by 10x from the actual,

That is because the term "market cap" is pretty useless when applied to Bitcoin. That is in no way reflective of how many coins are for sale.

[Sandia]

Too much hard that price will reach 4000$ by August/September. You saying that market cap will increase by 10x from the actual, namely from 8 billion to 80 billion..

While I don't believe the price can go so high, I know that it wouldn't take 72 billion to go there. If we would get 20-30 million on each exchange today, price would go up like hell.

There has been analysis done twice on this site.  The answers were 15 and 60 multipliers, IIRC (I can't find the posts).  I.e., if  $1M is added to the market, the valuation of btc as a whole rises between $15M and $60M.

To put the market at a $80B valuation would require an additional $1.2-5B to be invested in btc, assuming their analysis was correct.  Definitely possible.

[hellscabane]

I wouldn't be surprised if it's delayed once again till next year.

Isn't there a block halving scheduled for next spring?

That should be helpful.

Last time I checked, the block propagation rate (averaging a block for every 8ish minutes) coincides with the next block halving being sometime at the end of 2015 which is a while from now.

bitcoinclock.com has it as: Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-08-11.  Is that accurate?

Thanks for posting that.

I wasn't sure if he was asking for the current rate or the exponential rate. I was recalling the calculation that was done for a rate of exponential increase over the next year (that assumed 20nm/18nm ASIC geometric technologies being taped out). I remember it concluding that if rate increase was something like e^.08t it would coincide with the end of 2015/early 2016.

[BitchicksHusband]

I wouldn't be surprised if it's delayed once again till next year.

Isn't there a block halving scheduled for next spring?

That should be helpful.

Last time I checked, the block propagation rate (averaging a block for every 8ish minutes) coincides with the next block halving being sometime at the end of 2015 which is a while from now.

bitcoinclock.com has it as: Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-08-11.  Is that accurate?

Thanks for posting that.

I wasn't sure if he was asking for the current rate or the exponential rate. I was recalling the calculation that was done for a rate of exponential increase over the next year (that assumed 20nm/18nm ASIC geometric technologies being taped out). I remember it concluding that if rate increase was something like e^.08t it would coincide with the end of 2015/early 2016.

Yeah, it was originally supposed to be Jan 2017, so we've come a long way.

[azguard]

Every now and then there is a price jumping.

Its same with BTC on 7-9 month base price jump then stabilize on certain % of former price. This happen before and it will happen again. Will it be in avg/sep that is another question but it will happen more like to be around okt/nov, my personal prediction on this.

For price reasonable is to be around 2-2.5K in USD again that is my opinion.

[bajlox]

People on another tread votes mostly for august this year?

Is it gonna be this year or next?

[Rub3n]

The fact us NOBODY KNOWS THE FUTURE PRICE.

But predictions are always possible, even with the fact that it may become less popular etc, it can all be calculated. But its just too random, so there are lots of scenarios.

[spazzdla]

Price will be 3-700 until mid/late 2015 where it will skyrocket to 50k.

This is my prediction, HODL.

[okthen]

Price will be 3-700 until mid/late 2015 where it will skyrocket to 50k.

This is my prediction, HODL.

No way it's not going above 700 for such a long time.
One of the ETFs will open for sure before long, and then the bubble will follow.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

Price will be 3-700 until mid/late 2015 where it will skyrocket to 50k.

This is my prediction, HODL.

No way it's not going above 700 for such a long time.
One of the ETFs will open for sure before long, and then the bubble will follow.

I agree.  I think ETFs have huge potential for increasing the price (although note that I say "potential").  But if everyone thinks that will be the case (I've seen others voice the same opinion), will the rally happen when an ETF launch is announced?  Or when the ETF actually launches?  Or both?

[devphp]

There is a chance for $1k in 2014, but no higher this year.

[BitchicksHusband]

GOBI opens August 1.  We'll see what effect (if any) that has on the price.

[devphp]

GOBI opens August 1.  We'll see what effect (if any) that has on the price.

What's GOBI? I only know Gobi Desert.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

There is a chance for $1k in 2014, but no higher this year.

How do you figure that $1k could happen but no higher?  $700 is setting up to be huge resistance, and it seems like a lot of pressure is building below that level.  If we don't break it, then we'll probably eventually drop a ways.  But if we do, I think the potential exists for a very quick run-up that could easily test the all-time highs. 

[devphp]

There is a chance for $1k in 2014, but no higher this year.

How do you figure that $1k could happen but no higher?  $700 is setting up to be huge resistance, and it seems like a lot of pressure is building below that level.  If we don't break it, then we'll probably eventually drop a ways.  But if we do, I think the potential exists for a very quick run-up that could easily test the all-time highs. 

I am not so sure about a quick run-up to test the all-time high, the ATH will be tested, yeah, but I believe a gradual price rise to that level will be taking place. Because there will be many sellers all the way to ATH, it can't happen quickly. Miners have invested a lot in hardware in 2014 and they will be selling many bitcoins to get a ROI - this won't be easy with difficulty rising so much => new daily supply of 3600 Bitcoins has to be absorbed by the market, earlier hodlers will be selling to take profits. There is no fake Mt.Gox bot trading any more to keep the price artificially higher, there is no China (at least no easy way for the Chinese to participate).

All in all, I think the bulls will be moderately victorious over the next 12 months and will take the price to $1k but no higher, selling pressure will be huge too, all these large and small merchants (Overstock, Newegg, Tigedirect, etc) add to the selling pressure, because they sell 90% of Bitcoins for cash (which is equivalent to hodlers selling Bitcoins) and mainstream adoption is not happening on such a large scale as we would like to dream (common folks are still not quite sure why they need Bitcoin and many of them can't handle it securely losing to hackers, etc).

Impossible to look into longer than 12 months from now.

[azguard]

There is a chance for $1k in 2014, but no higher this year.

How do you figure that $1k could happen but no higher?  $700 is setting up to be huge resistance, and it seems like a lot of pressure is building below that level.  If we don't break it, then we'll probably eventually drop a ways.  But if we do, I think the potential exists for a very quick run-up that could easily test the all-time highs. 

Markets put 700 as first obstacle then is 1k, after those 2 barriers are broken then who hows now much will bitcoin worth, maybe it will crash maybe will go to 4-6k.

Like in red alert 2 "Time will tell"

[windjc]

Saying the market will only go up to $1000 in 2014 or the next 12 months is nonsensical in my opinion.

If we get into a real bull market $1000 could go down very fast.

A year ago we were around $100-$120 and people thought retesting or surpassing $266 in the near future was a pipe dream.

I don't know if we will get to $700 or $800 in 2014. But if we do, then $1000 is not going to hold back a market that literally has a lack of sellers. The only reason we aren't going up right now is a lack of exchange buyers. And we have no idea and no data on what's happening transaction wise off exchange. For all we no, the reason there are no exchange sellers might be that all the large miners are selling off exchange.

Sooner or later demand is going to pick up and once it does, without sellers to match it (much more than we have had for months) then the price will have no where to go but up.