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Author Topic: worth the wait?  (Read 5701 times)
jbgc
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March 15, 2012, 04:58:36 PM
 #1

Hello all,

I bought $5000 worth of bitcoin last year at about $15/coin.  Now, as you know, it has completely dropped below that value.

Just like everyone else, I sort of secretly hoped bitcoin would rise to $100000000+ per coin or whatever.  But now I see that will never happen.

Should I sell and take back what I can get or should I hold out of the long-term?  I don't need the money anytime soon or anything but I don't want to lose it all.

Any help is welcomed & appreciated.

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kronosvl
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March 15, 2012, 05:03:54 PM
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I would wait till December or January at least. halving the reward should increase the bitcoin's value if no other important events are happening

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March 15, 2012, 05:04:07 PM
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The good old buy high sell low  Cheesy
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March 15, 2012, 05:05:24 PM
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Why did you think it would go that high?

Because it was moving up? Now it'll never go up because it went down, right?


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March 15, 2012, 05:05:36 PM
 #5

Buy 333 more coins @ $5 per coin and then you only need $10 avg to break even and $12 is a 20% profit. Smiley
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March 15, 2012, 05:11:45 PM
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There's no good answer you can get to this question.  It's like asking if you should sell your stocks now or later.  Anyone who answers has an agenda, and it's probably not to help you make you money.

The right place to ask would be over in the speculation forum, but I've given up trying to talk sense into that lot.  I've made some arguments about the current utility and future prospects of Bitcoin, but they're all too busy trying to talk each other into buying or selling at the same time.

If you want my 0.02BTC:  Right now the market utilization of Bitcoin doesn't justify the current price.  It should be cents, not dollars, based on present need, and tens of cents or maybe a buck net present value based on the potential (no, it's not INEVITABLE!!! no matter how many people try to convince you of that) that it could become a really big thing.

But my opinion is just as much speculation as any of theirs, so do your own research.  Smiley

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March 15, 2012, 05:21:44 PM
 #7

 But now I see that will never happen.

May I borrow your crystal ball please?  Roll Eyes


I don't need the money anytime soon or anything but I don't want to lose it all.

You made a high risk high payoff bet now stick with it because it's not over yet and you just said you have ample time.

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March 15, 2012, 05:25:20 PM
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If you sell now, it's 100% certain that you're gonna lose money. If you sell "tomorrow" chances are:
lose more than now
lose less than now
profit.

I'd say you wait.

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March 15, 2012, 05:28:55 PM
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It is obvious that there is and will be lots of volatility in the bitcoin price. If you believe in the concept in long-term, and want to invest in it, the smartest way to do that in my opinion is automatic intesting.

There exists a great tool for that: https://www.bitcoinbuilder.com/

Nobody knows whether the price is going up or down. I am myself very risk-averse, so I invest only small amounts to bitcoin, beacuse there still exists multiple risks (IMHO). But I invest automatically: a small automatic monthly/weekly bank transfer to an exchange, and a simple bot which buys the bitcoins hourly/each 5 minutes/daily.

At this point investing just by buying a huge amount at once could be stupid. But it could be smart as well. Who knows. I certainly don't know, that is why I spread my investment over time.

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March 15, 2012, 05:44:28 PM
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If you want my 0.02BTC:  Right now the market utilization of Bitcoin doesn't justify the current price.  It should be cents, not dollars, based on present need

 Roll Eyes If Bitcoins were worth 20 cents a piece, I could buy them all for a couple million dollars.

A nice house is a couple million dollars. Bitcoin - the technology alone - is worth far higher than that.

To answer the OP - sell if you think the prospects for Bitcoin are poor. Buy if you think the prospects for Bitcoin are good. Nobody should buy something to get rich within a year, but if you truly believe in this technology, then set the coins aside for 2-5 years and see what happens.

My personal opinion is that the current "use value" (?) justifies a price in the $1-$10/coin range, and the NPV value justifies something far higher. I'd buy coins at $1, at $5, at $10, at $100. It's all going to be seen as cheap in the future. This is the most revolutionary technology I've ever seen, and I'm happy to risk quite a bit of money on it.

Just whatever you do, ALWAYS realize this whole thing is highly speculative and volatile. Never put "important savings" into Bitcoin, that would be foolish.
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March 15, 2012, 05:48:35 PM
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Maybe if you invested 2500USD in bitcoin and 2500USD supporting and starting projects to help the growth of bitcoin you wouldnt be asking this question.
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March 15, 2012, 05:52:52 PM
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I think if I had been in this position I'd have been buying more over the past couple months to lower my average price. 
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March 15, 2012, 05:54:18 PM
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Buy 333 more coins @ $5 per coin and then you only need $10 avg to break even and $12 is a 20% profit. Smiley

Something like this is the best option.  Dollar cost average if you are speculating and aren't in it for the long haul.  I bought some at $30 and bought more at $3.
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March 15, 2012, 06:04:15 PM
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I think if I had been in this position I'd have been buying more over the past couple months to lower my average price.  
I did this last March/April when it went down from a dollar.

If you are certain about Bitcoin’s future, I would recommend it. Or best yet, put aside a bit of money every month if you have an income and save it in Bitcoins.

It should be cents, not dollars, based on present need, and tens of cents or maybe a buck net present value based on the potential (no, it's not INEVITABLE!!! no matter how many people try to convince you of that) that it could become a really big thing.
Too bad the market is disagreeing with you for over a whole year now. Grin

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March 15, 2012, 06:06:55 PM
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A nice house is a couple million dollars. Bitcoin - the technology alone - is worth far higher than that.

No argument there - but the technology is also available to competing coins / blockchains.  Bitcoin is an amazing pioneer, but it has some significant drawbacks, and the community is very resistant to change.  That leaves a big opportunity for a competing coin to make some fundamental changes and attain truly mass appeal, obsoleting Bitcoin in the process.

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March 15, 2012, 06:11:41 PM
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Too bad the market is disagreeing with you for over a whole year now. Grin

The market is not rational and will do whatever it damn well pleases, regardless of my opinions on fundamentals and the long-term picture.  Smiley

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Bitcoin is the Devil's way of teaching geeks economics.  --Revalin 165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g
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March 15, 2012, 06:38:43 PM
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you should advertise btcoin with all your hart Smiley
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March 15, 2012, 06:43:06 PM
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Wait... The fools selling now will look like idiots in the future.


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March 15, 2012, 06:51:32 PM
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 Bitcoin is an amazing pioneer, but it has some significant drawbacks

I hear this a lot. What if it's not the pioneer, and it's actually the most brilliant in a line of digital currencies?

What are these "significant drawbacks?" I can't think of any that are significant.
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March 15, 2012, 06:55:22 PM
 #20

There is always the "good enough" dynamic.

Early on ebay gained critical mass.  Competitors emerged and they all tried to out ebay, ebay.  Ebay had/has some issues but it was "good enough" and thus enjoyed the critical mass which caused competitors to die off. 

While something may replace Bitcoin it has an uphill battle.
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