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Author Topic: Possible selloff coming?  (Read 3927 times)
Anth0n
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April 30, 2011, 07:50:20 PM
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Anyone notice the large transfer of 200,000 BTC on the monitor earlier? If not, here is a link to the image: http://www.filedropper.com/largetransaction

The only reason I can think of to transfer this many BTC at once is with the intention to sell them. What are your thoughts?
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LMGTFY
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April 30, 2011, 07:58:48 PM
 #2

Anyone notice the large transfer of 200,000 BTC on the monitor earlier? If not, here is a link to the image: http://www.filedropper.com/largetransaction

The only reason I can think of to transfer this many BTC at once is with the intention to sell them. What are your thoughts?
I think if I was planning to sell off that many bitcoins, I'd transfer them in small batches, so as not to alert the rest of us!

Having said that, just about anything I can think of (transfer to "savings" wallet, purchase, etc) - I'd do it in much smaller batches...

This space intentionally left blank.
casascius
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April 30, 2011, 11:54:55 PM
 #3

I think if I was planning to sell off that many bitcoins, I'd transfer them in small batches, so as not to alert the rest of us!

Having said that, just about anything I can think of (transfer to "savings" wallet, purchase, etc) - I'd do it in much smaller batches...

You know, if a slow selloff occurred, paced with demand, and it merely slowed the growth of the BTC price rather than letting the price go into the stratosphere, I would consider that a good thing.  It would greatly lessen the volatility of BTC in general.  I hope someone does it.

If the price gets to be $50/BTC and people start realizing that, say, 54% of the BTC in existence are still in the hands of the early miner who mined them because they haven't even been spent out of their generation block, people are going to start drumming up support for dumping the block chain because the risk of everyone's BTC popping at the whim of a few individuals isn't what they signed up for.

Companies claiming they got hacked and lost your coins sounds like fraud so perfect it could be called fashionable.  I never believe them.  If I ever experience the misfortune of a real intrusion, I declare I have been honest about the way I have managed the keys in Casascius Coins.  I maintain no ability to recover or reproduce the keys, not even under limitless duress or total intrusion.  Remember that trusting strangers with your coins without any recourse is, as a matter of principle, not a best practice.  Don't keep coins online. Use paper wallets instead.
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May 01, 2011, 02:57:37 AM
 #4

I was gonna check out your image but it required multiple clicks and a capcha. Use www.imgur.com or better
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May 01, 2011, 04:01:26 AM
 #5

I was gonna check out your image but it required multiple clicks and a capcha. Use www.imgur.com or better

PLATO speaks the truth. I was interested but your presentation could be better.

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May 01, 2011, 09:19:23 AM
 #6

I guess:
http://blockexplorer.com/tx/ab16c3aebf495708c2202fb21dd29cca53470cfe5aac2492b2730c1be6a82c8b

error
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May 01, 2011, 09:21:46 AM
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I was gonna check out your image but it required multiple clicks and a capcha. Use www.imgur.com or better

imgur.com should also be avoided. It requires JavaScript!

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May 01, 2011, 09:51:46 AM
 #8

I use http://www.imghaven.com/ if I need to post pics in a forum.
like this ...

btc address:1MEyKbVbmMVzVxLdLmt4Zf1SZHFgj56aqg
gpg fingerprint:DD1AB28F8043D0837C86A4CA7D6367953C6FE9DC

Anth0n
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May 01, 2011, 05:36:24 PM
 #9

Ok, here you go: http://i.imgur.com/mhvcw.png
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May 04, 2011, 06:11:38 PM
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You know, if a slow selloff occurred, paced with demand, and it merely slowed the growth of the BTC price rather than letting the price go into the stratosphere, I would consider that a good thing.  It would greatly lessen the volatility of BTC in general.  I hope someone does it.

If the price gets to be $50/BTC and people start realizing that, say, 54% of the BTC in existence are still in the hands of the early miner who mined them because they haven't even been spent out of their generation block, people are going to start drumming up support for dumping the block chain because the risk of everyone's BTC popping at the whim of a few individuals isn't what they signed up for.

What incentive would they have to sell all of their bitcoins for USD/EUR/etc at once? And how would they ever be able to accomplish that in one transaction?

I think the only way they even *could* get rid of a large amount of bitcoins would be to do it slowly. Otherwise, they risk losing the value of their investment.
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May 04, 2011, 07:25:27 PM
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They wouldn't sell them on a market so there won't be an impact on your bitcoin price.  Why?  Because, using Mt. Gox as a depth of market indicator, once they sold 16,000 coins the price would drop to $2.51 a coin.

Excuse the back of the napkin calculations since I don't have the full depth of market, but let's say that if they were to sell double that, say 30,000, then it's logical that the price would drop another dollar to $1.51.  Extending that logic, somewhere around 50,000 coins sold would make the BTC worthless.  Realistically, if the sell-off happened many more people would sell and the price would hit zero *fast*.

No, they won't sell, they have to sit on them and greedily rub their hands together.  Have faith that everyone with greater than 5,000 coins will not sell (visibly on the exchange) since the realized value is not as high as the current value. 

They have to sit around until a lot more money comes into the market before they can safely liquidate without destroying the goose that lays the golden eggs.
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May 04, 2011, 07:53:03 PM
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They wouldn't sell them on a market so there won't be an impact on your bitcoin price.  Why?  Because, using Mt. Gox as a depth of market indicator, once they sold 16,000 coins the price would drop to $2.51 a coin.

Excuse the back of the napkin calculations since I don't have the full depth of market, but let's say that if they were to sell double that, say 30,000, then it's logical that the price would drop another dollar to $1.51.  Extending that logic, somewhere around 50,000 coins sold would make the BTC worthless.  Realistically, if the sell-off happened many more people would sell and the price would hit zero *fast*.

No, they won't sell, they have to sit on them and greedily rub their hands together.  Have faith that everyone with greater than 5,000 coins will not sell (visibly on the exchange) since the realized value is not as high as the current value. 

They have to sit around until a lot more money comes into the market before they can safely liquidate without destroying the goose that lays the golden eggs.


Exactly. Let's not go chicken little over this 200,000BTC transaction. There is little to no incentive to just dump all of that on the market, even in chungs as small as 16,000 (only 8% of the total) coins.
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May 05, 2011, 09:00:22 PM
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Others users have speculated that that 200K BTC transaction could be related to this thread, where a new forum user claimed he wanted to buy exactly 200K bitcoins at $2 USD / BTC.

It's plausible that the buyer slowly bought coins on MT Gox over the course of a few weeks and then withdrew his coins to his wallet in one transaction on 30 April. Instead of a massive selloff, it was a gradual buy-up!
FooDSt4mP
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May 05, 2011, 10:24:17 PM
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Others users have speculated that that 200K BTC transaction could be related to this thread, where a new forum user claimed he wanted to buy exactly 200K bitcoins at $2 USD / BTC.

It's plausible that the buyer slowly bought coins on MT Gox over the course of a few weeks and then withdrew his coins to his wallet in one transaction on 30 April. Instead of a massive selloff, it was a gradual buy-up!

Except for the $1000/day limit on MtGox.  Nice try though.

As we slide down the banister of life, this is just another splinter in our ass.
DukeOfEarl
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May 05, 2011, 11:21:59 PM
 #15

Except for the $1000/day limit on MtGox.  Nice try though.

Limit?  I'm not aware of a limit, I'm aware of a minimum order size of $1000US for the dark pool.
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May 06, 2011, 12:14:07 AM
 #16

Except for the $1000/day limit on MtGox.  Nice try though.

Limit?  I'm not aware of a limit, I'm aware of a minimum order size of $1000US for the dark pool.

There was a limit, but perhaps MagicalTux removed/raised it after he took over MtGox.  Can anyone confirm they can withdraw more than $1000 USD in value per day (1000USD or 1000 worth the BTC)?

As we slide down the banister of life, this is just another splinter in our ass.
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May 06, 2011, 12:16:16 AM
 #17

http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=6441.msg107576#msg107576

^ MagicalTux confirms $1000 limit

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DukeOfEarl
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May 06, 2011, 05:45:52 PM
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You are correct, thanks for the link, yrral86.
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May 07, 2011, 01:39:59 AM
 #19


More than anything, I confirm it can be lifted on a case-by-case basis. We'll have a better policy once we have made sure everything is fine.

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May 12, 2011, 04:32:01 AM
 #20

Possible selloff coming?
As of today, prices have gone much higher; There will always be a possible sell-off coming.
Likewise there will always be a possible huge upward spike in prices!!!

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